We are going to have the worst economic problems we've had in your lifetime and my lifetime and when that happens a lot of companies are going to disappear. In 200 2008, Bear Stearns disappeared. Bear Stearns had been around for over 90 years. Lehman Brothers disappeared, Lehman had been around for over 150 years. A long, long time.
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
Monday, February 20, 2017
When interest rates start going up again permanently, when the bull market does come to an end in government bonds, interest rates are going to go very, very high.
In 1981, short-term in America were over 20 percent. Long-term bonds were yielding over 15 percent.
When interest rates go higher the junk bonds are going to get destroyed both by interest rates and by credit defaults. (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK))
Friday, February 17, 2017
Well, yes and no. Mr. Trump has said he is going to do some wonderful things, like cutting taxes which is always great for any society, any country. He said he is going to rebuild the infrastructure which America desperately needs and it's good for America.
He said he is going to bring home the 3 trillion dollars which American companies have overseas. All of the things are wonderful things. If he can do it, it's going to be great!
But, Mr. Trump has also said he is going to have trade wars with China, Mexico, Japan, Korea and a few other countries that he has named. He said that on his first day in Office he would impose 45 percent tariffs against China. He has been there for a few weeks and he has not done it yet, but he still has it in his head, I am sure. Maybe he is just another politician like all the rest of them that says one thing but does not mean it at all. He has at least three people at high levels on his team that are very, very keen to have trade wars with China and if he does that, it's all over!
History is very clear. Trade wars always lead to problems, into disaster and even to real wars. If he is not going to have trade wars with various countries, then chances are that for a while happy days are here. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Futures)
Thursday, February 16, 2017
I am not shorting U.S. Government Bonds but I am still short U.S. junk bonds still. We are certainly in the process of making a top, but when the top comes, I do not know.
When interest rates go higher permanently, the junk bonds are going to get destroyed by interest rates and by credit defaults because many of them are junk! (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bond ETF (JNK), iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond (ETF)(HYG))
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
I have been around long enough to know that everything is possible, no matter how weird it may sound. In fact, the weirdest it sounds probably the more likely it is going to happen. I doubt that there will be a Plaza accord this time around. It is more likely that the U.S. Dollar will just go higher and higher on its own. It will get too high, it will cause serious credit problems for a lot of people that has borrowed a lot of U.S. Dollars and it will make a lot of American companies less competitive.
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
The fundamentals are getting worse everywhere except in Russia. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX))
Monday, February 13, 2017
The U.S. Dollar is having a correction now. All bull markets need corrections, corrections are good. I have not sold any U.S. Dollars. There is going to be turmoil somewhere along the line, we are already seeing it in some places. The Euro currency is going to have a lot of turmoil year. The U.S. Dollar is going to be a "safe haven". It is not a safe haven but is it perceived as a safe haven.
Friday, February 10, 2017
I'm optimistic about Russia and Mr. Trump seems to like Russia a lot. Buy Russian government bonds! (Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))
Thursday, February 9, 2017
I am just watching. I haven`t figured out what Donald Trump is going to do. He keeps saying that he is going to hit them very hard. Trade wars have always been disastrous for everybody. Nobody has ever won a trade war. Trade wars have always led to bankruptcies. So, Mr. Trump does not seem to care about all of that, he thinks he is smarter than history.
I am very, very bullish on the U.S. Dollar for a variety of reasons. The U.S. Dollar is probably one of the best opportunities around right now because there will be a lot of turmoil, people will look for a safe haven. The world thinks the U.S. Dollar is a safe haven. It's not.
Wednesday, February 8, 2017
Traditionally when the Federal Reserve raises rates three times you should be very, very worried. And on the fourth you should not only be worried but just run for the hills. So, if history is any guide, when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates some more there will be problems in the equity markets. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Futures, Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM))
Tuesday, February 7, 2017
Higher interest rates are certainly coming from the market and from the Federal Reserve. What that does to the stock market (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY)) we shall see. Traditionally when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates three times you should be very, very worried.
Monday, February 6, 2017
Commodities are bottoming, especially agriculture. Base metals are in the process of making a bottom. In a few years, we are going to look back and say, "What an opportunity that was!" (PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA), Nymex Copper Futures, Nymex Crude Oil futures, United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO))
Friday, February 3, 2017
My view is that Oil is making a complicated bottom. I do not think we have seen the low for this year yet. I am not even sure what the low will be. A range of 30 to 60 dollars a barrel, or 40 to 60, something like that. (Nymex Crude Oil futures, United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO))
Corrections and rallies are very common in all markets, does no matter what the market. What we are seeing is the process of gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) trying to find its bottom and in my view it is not here yet.
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
I do not like the fact that the Indian budget deficit is going to continue. India will continue to get deeper and deeper into debt. That is populism, Mr. Modi wants to keep everybody happy! (WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (EPI), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))
- The Worst Economic Problems Of Our Lifetime Are Co...
- Interest Rates Are Going Much Higher
- Is the Stock Market Right About Trump?
- Junk Bonds: They Will Get Destroyed When Interest ...
- The U.S. Dollar Will Just Go Higher And Higher
- The Fundamentals Are Getting Worse Everywhere
- The U.S. Dollar Is Having A Correction
- Emerging Markets: I'm Very Optimistic About Russia...
- China: A Trade War Will Be Disastrous (iShares FTS...
- I'm Very, Very Bullish on the U.S. Dollar
- Stocks: The 3rd Rate Rise Starts To Cause Problems...
- How Higher Rates Will Impact the Stock Market
- Commodities: A Big Opportunity
- Crude Oil: Expecting a 40-60 Dollars a Barrel Rang...
- Gold: In the Process of Finding a Bottom (SPDR Gol...
- India: I Don't Like The Populist Budget
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