Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Italian Banks, Deutsche Bank (DB)

The Italian banks are in trouble but so is Deutsche Bank (DB), which is the largest bank in Germany.

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

I Expect Bad Financial Times To Come

I do not see how the European union can survive on its current form. The world needs something to compete with the U.S. Dollar which is a terribly flawed currency. The Euro currency in theory would be good for the world. Unfortunately it was badly executed, a good theory badly executed and now we have many problems.

So, I do not expect the Euro currency to survive and I doubt the European Union will survive as we know it. Because since Brexit occurred it has encouraged many separatists in Europe that want to split up their countries from the EU.

As I expect bad financial times to come, when we have bad financial times, people always look for big change.

Monday, December 26, 2016

The U.S. Will Face a Crisis or A Semi-Crisis

No country has got itself into this kind of situation gets out without a crisis or a semi-crisis. Interest rates have started going back up, if they go to normal historical levels, it is impossible for the United States to pay the debt. We have to face the facts. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT))

Friday, December 23, 2016

Trump: Trade Wars, Serious Problems

Trade wars have always led to serious problems and often to real it has led to real war. So the facts are all in place for something like that to happen. I would like to think that there is some way that we can avert it. History does not show us any reason to be optimistic. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Copper Futures)

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Markets: What Now?

Now we are going to start focusing on interest rates, in what is happening in the real economy. There is a lot of debt. We will all have to start paying attention to the interest rate burden that everybody is going to suffer. I expect problems next year. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Markets: Inflation Is Coming Back

We have inflation coming back, we have staggering amounts of debt. So I suspect that market interest rates are just going to keep trading higher. (iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT))

Stock Market: Its Far Ahead of Itself

The stock market is far ahead of itself at the moment. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Futures, Russell 2000 Index)

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Trade Wars: It Will Lead to Bankruptcy and War

Trade wars have always failed. Trade wars have always led to bankruptcy and often to war throughout history. Even the people who understand this, sometimes think, do not worry, it is different this time, I can control this. Mr. Trump certainly thinks he can control it, but the facts are this is very worrysome for the world over the next several years.

Monday, December 19, 2016

Many People In Asia Do Not Like Trump

Many people in Asia do not particularly like Trump but that is based on what they read on the mainstream media, their media is like ours, they just repeat what the U.S. and the U.K. say, so, the main view here in Asia is that now the United States is pulling out, withdrawing from Asia and that is a gigantic opportunity for China, and China sees it.

Friday, December 16, 2016

When Will the Dollar Start Looking Like a Bubble

One hundred and ten in the Dollar Index certainly does not sound like a bubble to me. I will just have to judge the circumstances at the time. You will be able to read the newspapers and everybody will be talking about how the Dollar is going to go up forever, you will see on TV that the Dollar is the new promised land.

People will be pouring into dollars...I try to judge those things by the mood. Bubbles throughout history everywhere in the world, no matter the asset, always look and sound the same. I hope I am smart enough to recognize it.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

The Dollar Strength Will Continue

The U.S. Dollar strength is going to go on for a while. The U.S. Dollar is going to get overprices, the U.S. Dollar may even turn into a bubble. (EUR USD forex cross, USDJPY forex cross, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Gold: The One Thousand Mark

It may not get to one thousand dollars an ounce, it may not even get there at all. I am pretty bad at market timing. But if it does, I expect to load up. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Novagold (NG))

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Gold: In The End Gold Will Turn Into A Bubble

I am a terrible market timer and a horrible short term trader. I own gold, I have hedged some of my gold. I expect that if gold gets on one thousand dollars an ounce, I hope I am smart enough to buy a lot of gold because in the end, this is all going to end in huge mess and in a bubble for gold. My price to remove my edges and to buy a lot more gold is under one thousand. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Monday, December 12, 2016

Trump Rally: It Surprises Me That Investors Are So Enthusiastic

It surprises me that people are as enthusiastic as they are given that Mr. Trump says he is going to start trade wars. At the moment everybody seems to be focusing on the fact that he is going to cut taxes which is fabulous for any economy and that he is going to be building new infrastructure that we desperately need. Nobody seems to be focusing on where will the money be coming from, and secondly how are we going to do all this with trade wars.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

The Fundamentals For Crude Oil Are Improving

The fundamentals for crude oil are improving. For example, Saudi Arabia has not found any major oil field for a long time. Other big oil producers like Iraq, Iran or Nigeria have not found a lot of oil too. Only the fracking companies have found a lot of oil but they cannot make any money if oil prices are low. (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil futures, Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Gold: Interested If It Drops Below A Thousand (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

I have not bought any gold for many years now and I am not a buyer of gold at these prices right now. I hedged my gold and if gold drops below a thousand dollars per ounce I may buy a lot more. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX))

Monday, December 5, 2016

Crude Oil Outlook: A Trading Range With Some Upside

I own some crude oil but I am not a good market timer or a good trader. My view is that we are in a complicated bottoming process that could last a couple of years. So far the trading range has been between 30 and 40 dollars a barrel, it will likely be a little bit more on the upside of that range. 60 dollars a barrel is not an unusual price for crude oil. (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil futures, Marathon Oil (MRO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Friday, December 2, 2016

Investors Should Own Energy

Investors should own energy because reserves of energy continue to decline around the world and so, crude oil fundamentals are still getting better. (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP))

Crude Oil: The Market Is Smarter Than OPEC

The question is that the market is way smarter than oil producers, smarter than OPEC. So, I do not really pay much attention to OPEC meetings. They can sit down and have meetings that will go on for days and nights but there are a lot of oil producers in the world that are not on the agreement to cut production. (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Marathon Oil (MRO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP))

Thursday, December 1, 2016

The OPEC Cut: What's Ahead For Oil?

The OPEC cut announcement is not surprising to me but the key is to wait and see if they really do it. OPEC has made these kind of announcements for decades. Most have not really worked but this one is making crude oil go up and it will probably continue to do so. But what really matter is that crude oil fundamentals are continuing to improve. (Nymex Crude Oil futures, Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP))

Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Markets: The Problems Are Coming No Matter Who Is The President

What is going to happen is worse than anything that you have seen in your lifetime and we are all going to be extraordinarily affected. Be worried. The problems are coming no matter who is the President. The world has huge problems facing us.

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

The World Never Solved Its Problems By Printing Money

Never has the world been able to solve its problems by printing money. That is why the debt goes higher and higher because interest rates are next to nothing and the central banks buy the debt.

Monday, November 28, 2016

Finance As An Industry Is In Decline

The finance industry has been good for the past 3 decades, but it was not a good industry to be in the 3 decades before that period. Now the financial industry is declining and in the future. The center of the business world will be the producers of real stuff, real goods not finance. (Bank of America (BAC), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC))

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Only A Few Tech Stocks Are Holding Up The U.S. Stock Indexes

In the U.S. stock market only a few ( 10 to 15) big cap stocks only like 10 or 15 stocks that are holding up the indexes. All the big cap technology companies like Facebook (FB), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL).

Crude Oil Will Trade Higher Over The Next Few Years

Crude Oil (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil futures) will trade higher in price over the next couple of years.Right now it in the process of making a complicated bottom.

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Crude Oil Will Be Trading Higher In A Few Years

Crude Oil is making a bottom, it is in the complicated process of making a bottom. If we look back a few years from now we will say, Crude oil made its low in 2015 or 2016. Prices will be higher than they are now in a few years. (Nymex Crude Oil futures, United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Friday, November 18, 2016

Markets: Cautious On China, Very Bullish on Russia

I own Chinese share, I have not sold any of my Chinese shares. But I am not buying China now because of what President-elect Trump said about what he was going to do when in Office.I am buying Russia right now. (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX))

Thursday, November 17, 2016

I Expect Gold To Go Down Further

I own gold (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)) but I am not buying gold now as I expect gold to go down for a while. There are better things where we could invest.

Interest Rates Will Be Going Higher

Interest rates will definetely be going higher, there is no question about that. Not just here in the United States but in the rest of the world too.

Investing: Technology Will Keep Changing ((Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Twitter (TWTR))

In my books I wrote about how things keep changing and how one must understand that the world is constantly changing. If you pick any year in history and you fast forward 15 years everything has changed. Every 15 years we have a totally different world. If there is an investing lesson that we can take from history is that the world is always changing. (Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Netflix (NFLX), Amazon (AMZN), Twitter (TWTR), Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK))

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Stock Market: What Is Holding Up The Indexes

In the NYSE there are only a few stocks that are holding up the indexes, Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA), the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index. Ten or fifteen big cap tech stocks like Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG). The assumption is that all of those stocks are going to continue to grow forever, getting bigger and bigger. Maybe some of them will but looking back at history that is rarely the case. Nothing really goes on forever.

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

What To Expect From Trump?

Take Donald Trump at his word. He says he is going to cut taxes which is great for everybody and for the economy, he says he is going to spend a lot of money on infrastructure. I don't know where the money is coming from but that's what he says and that is why people are enthusiastic at the moment. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Monday, November 14, 2016

Markets: I Am Buying More Russia

I am in Russia now and I am actually buying more Russia. Russians like Donald Trump. It is very likely that Russia's relations with the United Staes will improve in the years after Donald Trump takes office. (Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM))

Saturday, November 12, 2016

I Am Not Buying Stocks Anywhere In The World

Right now I am not buying stocks anywhere in the World and that includes China. But I own Chinese stocks, I have not sold them. In the next few years the world is probably going to have serious problems and that will affect Chinese companies too. This means that some Chinese companies will probably go bankrupt but at the same time other parts of the Chinese economy are going to boom no matter what happens to the rest of the world. (iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI),  iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY))

Crude Oil: Don't Pay Attention To What OPEC Says

I learned not to pay too much attention to what OPEC says it will do or not do. They certainly have been talking a lot. But the question with OPEC is that even when they agree on a production cut, than what happens there is always a country or two doing something else under the table, cheating the supply cut deal. If I were you I would certainly not pay too much attention to OPEC.

Right now, crude oil is making a base between 30 dollars a barrel and 55 dollars a barrel. (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil futures, )

Friday, November 11, 2016

Trump: The Risks For The World

Donald Trump certainly has got enough bravado, enough ego to do what he said he would do when in the White House. He said the first thing he would do was to change all the trade deals (TPP, NAFTA, etc) and that is not good for the world. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY))

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Trump, Trade Wars & Currencies

I am long the U.S. Dollar. Trade wars usually make a currency go up at least for a while. (U.S. Dollar Index, EUR/USD forex cross, USD/CAD forex cross)

Monday, November 7, 2016

U.S. Elections: I Think Trump Will Win

It really does not matter what I think. I happen to think that Trump will win. But who cares what I think, what matters is what happens. I am short the U.S. stock market and if Donald Trump wins, stocks might go down, I might have it right! (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Futures)

Friday, November 4, 2016

Markets: The Next Downturn Will Be Worse Than Anything We Have Seen

In the next few months, if not before, we are going to see the end of all of this. The next downturn will be worse than anything we have seen in our lifetime. Depending on what happens, it might be the final one where everything totally collapses. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB), Nasdaq 100 Futures)

Wednesday, November 2, 2016

Bullish On Agriculture & Water

Agriculture has been in a bear market for over thirty years.  When agriculture finally turns it will be of the most exciting sectors to be invested. I am also very, very bullish on water. (PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (DBA), PowerShares Global Water Portfolio (ETF) (NYSE:PIO))

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Economic Turmoil Is Coming

We will have economic turmoil, it is on the horizon. And I am not the only one who foresees the turmoil coming. That means that investors are looking for ways to protect themselves. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Futures)

Monday, October 31, 2016

U.S. Stocks: The Generals Will Be The Last To Fall

More U.S. stocks are down then up. The Generals, the big tech companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook are the "Generals" and will be the last to fall. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Futures, Facebook (FB), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG))

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

Thursday, October 27, 2016

Investing: Agriculture Will Be A Exciting Place To Be Invested

Agriculture will have a good return over the next decade. After a 30-year bear market, when it turns around it will be a exciting place to be invested. (agricultural commodity futures, agricultural  ETF`s, agricultural stocks or even investing in a farm)

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

Wednesday, October 26, 2016

Bearish On Bonds Anywhere In The World

I do not really want to hold bonds anywhere in the world. If I held US government bonds on my portfolio I would get rid of them. (iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF))

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

Trump May Win The U.S. Elections

I suspect Donald Trump will be the winner but whoever wins the U.S. Presidential Elections it will  not be good. You better be prepared because there is going to be some very serious problems in the world as trade wars and protectionism always lead to bankruptcies.

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

Friday, October 21, 2016

I Have Short Positions In The U.S.

I do not have any investment on the long side or the short side in the United Kingdom. I am just watching, I am not doing anything. I have shorts in the U.S. but I do not have any positions in the U.K. at the moment.

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

Thursday, October 20, 2016

The New Natural Value For The British Pound (GBP)

Given the fact that the debt is so very, very high, the balance of trade is so bad, the City of London is now under so much pressure, Europe is now going to do everything it can to take the City`s business, so yes, a lower price under 1.0000 dollar will be the new normal for the British Pound (GBP). But that is not going to happen this year, that is 3 or 4 years down the road.

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

Wednesday, October 19, 2016

The U.K. Is Facing Serious Problems

The U.K. has big debts, the U.K. has a serious balance of trade problem that is not being corrected. I can`t see anything that can make the Pound Sterling go up in price now.

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

The Worst Bear Market In Your Lifetime

You are going to see in the next couple of years the worst bear market in your lifetime. It is going to be very, very bad. We have dire circunstances coming. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Futures, iShares NASDAQ Biotechnology Index ETF (IBB), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

Forex: Who Will Benefit From The GBP Weakness

Some people will benefit from the British Pound (GBP) weakness, if Sterling goes to 1 dollar or under it, certainly helps some people. Tourism will boom, some people will do very, very well in an environment like that.

Jim Rogers is a legendary investor that co-founded the Quantum Fund and retired at age thirty-seven. He is the author of several investing books and also a renowned financial commentator worldwide famous for his contrarian views on financial markets.

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