Appaloosa Management Adjusts Portfolio: Boosts Amazon, Drops Apple

In a recent filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, Appaloosa Management, led by David Tepper, strategically adjusted its portfolio. Notably, the fund augmented its stake in Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) while concurrently reducing its holdings in Apple Inc (AAPL). 

The quarterly filing reveals nuanced adjustments, including increased positions in Google's (GOOGL) parent company, Alphabet Inc., and Meta Platforms Inc. (META), alongside additional investments in Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) and Caesars Entertainment Inc (CZR). On the flip side, the fund divested its Apple and Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) stakes, signaling a calculated reshaping of its investment portfolio.

Iron Ore Shortfall Forecast Despite China's Fiscal Boost

Goldman Sachs predicts a year-end iron ore shortfall due to low inventories and declining production, citing a potential deficit rather than a surplus. The report highlights Beijing's substantial fiscal spending as a positive indicator for domestic growth, potentially boosting demand for iron ore in construction. Despite caution regarding China's property sector challenges, the market outlook leans towards an iron ore deficit.

Target (TGT) Triumph: Profits Soar 15% with Operational Excellence in Q3

Target Corp. (TGT) shares surged following a strong third-quarter earnings report, showcasing enhanced operational efficiency. Improved inventory management and reduced markdowns contributed to profits surpassing estimates, despite a decline in sales. 

Inventory dropped by 14% from the previous year, marking a consistent trend. The stock experienced its most significant rise since August 2019, soaring up to 15% in New York trading.

Post-Rally: Treasuries Decline, U.S. Retail Resilience, and Producer Prices Drop

In the aftermath of a rally, Treasuries experience a decline as astute traders meticulously assess data. Despite a tempered pace in U.S. retail sales preceding the holiday season, their resilience persists. Notably, producer prices exhibit their most substantial decline since April 2020, primarily attributed to a downturn in gasoline prices.

Inflation Eases: U.S. Producer Prices Fall Below Forecasts

Further indications of abating inflation are evident as U.S. Producer Prices experienced a 0.5% decline in October, with a mere 1.3% rise over the past year. These figures significantly deviated from consensus forecasts, which anticipated a 0.1% monthly increase and a 2.0% year-on-year upturn.

Inflation In Europe Running Hot

"The overall read for EU inflation comes in hotter than expected, with core inflation accelerating to a record 5.6%. Consumer prices rise 8.5% year over year vs an estimate of 8.3%. German 2-year yields hit new post-2008 highs."

--Lisa Abramowicz, Bloomberg

Central Banks Created All This Inflation Nightmare

"The Federal Reserve and other central banks spent over a decade deliberately creating inflation. We're now starting to suffer the consequences, as consumer prices must rise to find a new equilibrium price between the supply of goods for sale and the quantity of money available to buy them."

-- Peter Schiff 

The ECB Made An Error

"In 2018 the official inflation rate in the Eurozone was 1.74%. But the European Central Bank (ECB) thought 1.74% was too far below its mandate of inflation close to, but below 2%. So the European Central Bank (ECB) held the deposit rate at -.4% and continued a massive QE program to lift the rate closer to 2%. Now it's 8.4%!"

-- Peter Schiff

The End Of Desinflation

"Perhaps today's hotter than expected inflation data will be a wakeup call to investors that the CPI improvements in recent months were transitory. The 6.4 percent year-on-year rise in January CPI was two basis points above expectations and may mark the trough in year-on-year inflation rates and the end of disinflation."

-- Peter Schiff

China’s Negative Population Growth

For many years China had the one child program. They could only have one baby and it was in force so most people did not have enough children to replace the population and now they're paying the price for it.

Of course as any population ages, some people die if you're not not having new people, your population is going to decline. 

It's not been a very prosperous year for the world so it's normal that people don't have many babies when things are having economic problems.

Fed Policy Is Bringing The Economy & Asset Prices Down

While Federal Reserve policy is succeeding in bringing down the economy and asset prices, it's not succeeding in bringing inflation back down to 2 percent. Long before that happens, both the economy and financial markets will get even weaker, causing the Federal Reserve to make another mistake by pivoting.

-- Peter D. Schiff, economist

Rules of Investing

Most successful investors, in fact, do nothing most of the time.

— Jim Rogers

The price of a commodity will never go to zero. When you invest in commodities futures, you are not buying a piece of paper that says you own an intangible of the company that can go bankrupt.

— Jim Rogers

One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing absolutely nothing unless there is something to do. 

— Jim Rogers

The Complexity of the World

Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. People are too quick to accept conventional wisdom. It's a basic fact of life that many things "everybody knows" turn out to be wrong.

The British Pound Is Crashing!

"The British pound just hit an all-time low against the U.S. Dollar, trading below 1.05 for the first time ever. It looks like the latest round of deficit-financed tax cuts will backfire, as a weak pound causes the cost of living to rise by more than the value of the tax cuts."

-- Peter Schiff, economist

Fighting Inflation With Tax Cuts

"The reason governments want to "fight" inflation with tax cuts and not spending cuts is that the former is popular with voters. But what voters don't understand is that only the latter will work. Tax cuts will actually make the inflation problem they're supposed to solve worse!"

-- Peter Schiff, economist

Silver Has Many Industrial Uses

Solar panels, many things use and need silver (more than gold). Gold is used in jewelry more than anything else. It does have industrial uses also but nothing like silver. I'm delighted to know that silver has industrial uses but that's not the main reason I own it.

Related trading instruments: iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

Investing: Looking For Opportunities Outside Of Your Country

First of all, one should understand that there are many opportunities in many places in the world besides your own country. There always have been and there always will be. For instance, you know 50 years ago most people didn't know Japan had a stock market just on the verge of becoming one of the greatest success stories of the 20th century. So always be on the lookout for other markets, other opportunities.

Bear Markets End In Panic

"The last leg of a bull market always ends in hysteria. The last leg of a bear market always ends in panic."

-- Jim Rogers

Gold & Silver: The Way To Protect Yourself

I'm an old, old peasant ... I want to have some gold in the closet, I want to have some silver under the bed and I will buy more, just like all of us other old peasants, because we know that's the way to protect yourself.

Related trading instruments: iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

German Stocks Are Feeling The Heat

"Good Morning from Germany, where real estate stocks are mirroring the doom and gloom in German housing market. Shares of industry leader Vonovia have almost halved in value this year, while TAG Immobilien has lost almost two thirds due to higher interest rates & falling property prices."

-- Holger Zschaepitz, Welt

Warren Buffett Turns 92 Today.

Warren Buffett turns 92 today.

One of lessons from early in his investing days:

"Buffett saved up $120 and bought his first stock at the age of 11. He bought Cities Service for $38.25 per share. It fell to $27, then rose to $40. He sold at a small profit. It later topped $200, teaching him an early lesson about patient investing."

-- story told by Jon Erlichman on twitter

“I regard Berkshire Hathaway, sort of like .. a painter regards a painting — the difference being that the canvas is unlimited. There’s no finish line at Berkshire.” -- Warren Buffett comparing investing and managing a business to art creation

Bitcoin: What Happens Next?

"There still seems to be a lot of buyers for Bitcoin below $20,000. But there are also a lot of sellers above $20,000. I think the market runs out of buyers before it runs out of sellers."

-- Peter Schiff recent commentary on Bitcoin's price action around 20,000 USD (August 28th)

Germany: Energy & Industrial Crisis

"Germany 1-year forward baseload electricity surges past €400 per MegaWatt/hour (MWh) for the first time ever. We are truly into crunching territory for the country's energy-intensive manufacturing industry. The current price is approximately 1,000% higher than the €41.1 per MegaWatt/hour (MWh) 2010-2020 average."

Javier Blas, Energy and commodities columnist at Bloomberg

Russia: I Haven’t Been Able To Get Out

"I did invest in Russia for all the reasons you mentioned (low debt, positive real interest rates) and more... I have not been able to get out (of my investments) because everything is essentially closed." 

- Jim Rogers, commenting on his Russian investments

Fighting Inflation Will Cause A Severe Recession

"While fighting inflation will cause a severe recession and high unemployment, those conditions alone won't reduce inflation. They'll actually make it worse. To reduce inflation we need positive real interest rates, very aggressive QT, and massive cuts in government spending."

-- Peter Schiff

The U.S. Economy Has Been In Recession All Year

"The U.S. economy has been in recession all year. With yesterday's rate hike, more layoffs, and inflation continuing to erode purchasing power, the recession will deepen in the third quarter (Q3). In fact, Q2 GDP will likely be revised even lower."

-- Peter Schiff, economist

We Have Very High Valuations And Staggering Debt

It’s been 13 years since we’ve had big problems and that’s the longest in American history. It’s already overdue on a historic basis and it’s very expensive. It always goes down a lot when it goes down. We have very high valuations and staggering debt.

Going Against Your Trading Plan

"After a string of losses, desperate traders will often go against their plan, just to get even. Bad strategy."

-- Yvan Byeajee, trading expert

How Strong Stocks Behave

"During the late stages of a bear market (when news is terrible and most are bearish) money starts to rotate, and even though many stocks continue to experience volatility and the indexes may even go lower, the leaders hold up relatively well and emerge undetected by the masses."

-- Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader

Crude Oil: Price Is Now Below Invasion

"Crude Oil is now below the level it was at the day before Russia invaded Ukraine, down over 30% from its high in March. Markets are increasingly pricing in a global recession and a slowdown in demand (similar to what we saw in the back half of 2008)."

-- Charlie Bilello, Founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors

On The Verge Of A 2008-Style Financial Crisis?

"How is everyone so sure that we're not on the verge of a 2008 style financial crisis? Remember despite ample evidence, the experts didn't expect the 2008 financial crisis either. Plus, the economy is far more leveraged now than it was then, and there's a lot more debt to default."

-- Peter Schiff

European Inflation Is Squeezing Consumers

"While German CPI surprises to the downside, Spain's inflation unexpectedly surged to a record 10.2%. The surprise 10 percent reading for June dashes hopes that inflation in the Eurozone’s 4th-biggest economy had peaked and highlights how a squeeze on consumers is intensifying."

-- Holger Zschaepitz, Welt

America's Red Hot Economy Has Actually Been In A Recession All Year

The final read on Q1 GDP is now minus 1.6 percent. Since Q2 will likely be negative too, the Federal Reserve and President Biden will soon be forced to admit that America's red hot economy has actually been in a recession all year, which will only get far worse with high inflation and more interest rate hikes.

-- Peter Schiff

High Inflation vs. Financial Crisis

The Federal Reserve can either bring inflation down to 2 percent, cause a financial crisis, bank failures, stock, real estate and bond market crashes, the U.S. government to default on Treasury debt and slash Social Security benefits, while unemployment soars, or it can tolerate high inflation.

-- Peter Schiff

A Recession Is Inevitable

“If you’re still holding out hope that the Federal Reserve will be able to engineer a soft landing in the US economy, abandon it. A recession is inevitable within the next 12 to 18 months.”

-- Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley

Millions, Billions & Institutional Buyers

"I still find the difference between millions and billions to be rather mind-bending. One million seconds is approximately 11 days. One billion seconds is approximately 31.5 YEARS!"

-- Sahil Bloom

"Keep in mind that if the institutional investment community doesn't see what you see, your stock could sit dormant for an extended period of time. Why sit and wait when you can put your money elsewhere?"

-- Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader