Monday, October 21, 2019

Agriculture In Russia Is Booming

Back to agriculture-- prices are still not up. Prices are still down, for a variety of reasons. I mean agriculture has been a disaster for 35 years, as you probably know. I have an agricultural index of agriculture prices. It's down, what, 30, 35 percent over the past 20 years. 

Now there's not much in life where the prices are down 20 percent over the past 20 years, much less over the past 30 years. So, agriculture is a disaster. And often throughout history if you find things that are disasters and you buy them, you may lose money first or you may go bankrupt first, but usually you make a lot of money in the end. 

It's not the first time we've had big cycles in agriculture, in real assets, and probably not be the last time either. But agriculture, back to the point, it's horrendous. It's a nightmare, except Russia by the way. Russia right now, agriculture is booming because America put sanctions and Europe put sanctions on Russia. 

So, Russian agriculture is booming because America has said we're going to hurt the Russians badly. We're going to put sanctions on them. So they did. You couldn't sell food to the Russians. The Russians said we won't buy food from the West. So, now the Russian agriculture is booming. 

And if you ever read any Russian history or novels, you know that historically there have been times when agriculture has been big, big, big in Russia. It is again. I mean America shot-- the West I should say shot itself in the foot because now they've developed this huge booming, thriving industry in Russia.

Friday, October 18, 2019

7 Investing Lessons From Jim Rogers

1) My problem, my strength, is I don't like to sell. I like to own things. The kinds of things I buy, often, you can own forever, or at least for many, many years.

2) The book that I still to this day tell people to read is Security Analysis by Ben Graham. I read it decades ago. Short of that, The Intelligent Investor by Graham and Dodd. Graham's ideas of investing in fundamentals and cheap stocks, I realized that's the that's the kind of investor I was, that's what I loved and thought was great. So, I recommend that book when people ask me what book to read or books to read I tell them about Ben Graham. 

3) The more certain something is, the less likely it is to be profitable. 

4) If people learn to be a little more attentive to what they see they might wind up making investments and they might be successful. 

5) One of the best things I can tell you is do not have a lot of debt and try to stay away from people that have a lot of debt. 

6) Those who can not adjust to change will be swept aside by it. Those who recognize change and react accordingly will benefit. 

7) If you want to get rich you don't diversify. You put all your eggs in one basket and then you watch the basket very carefully. You got to make sure it's the right basket or you will go bankrupt but that's how you get rich. Henry Ford never diversified, Bill Gates never diversified.

Swiss Franc (CHF): A Horrendous Investment

I have some Swiss Francs (CHF) sort of by accident, and I worry about them all the time. It's not enough for me to spend too much time worrying about but I realize the Swiss Franc (CHF), when it caves, when the bear market comes, is going to be a horrendous investment, just like the ETFs. Because there are all these people who buy them. Same with the Swiss Franc (CHF). What could go wrong? Like Japan, what could go wrong?

Investing: My Problem, My Strength

My problem, my strength, is I don't like to sell. I like to own things. The kinds of things I buy, often, you can own forever, or at least for many, many years.

Friday, October 11, 2019

Over 90% Of Stocks Are In Downtrends

Over ninety percent of the stocks (in the S&P 500 Index) are in downtrends. Ten percent are in uptrends, but they're big companies. And since the S&P 500 Index is capitalization weighted, those 50 stocks, 40 stocks, whatever it is, dragged the average to all-time highs. 

Now, that doesn't mean it's not painful if you short those stocks. But basically, this has happened many times in market history. It gets narrower, and narrower, and narrower, the advance does, until it's just down to a few names. And eventually, they crack, too.

Stock Market: Lack Of Breadth

Today, if you look at the S&P 500 Index, for instance, in the United States, I think there are only 40 or 45 stocks that are above their 50-day moving averages, to use a technician's kind of talk. Everything else is in a downtrend. And yet the market is making all-time highs. Definitely a lack of breadth.

Wednesday, October 9, 2019

Video: The Potential For A Major Correction


Recent video interview with Real Vision where Jim Rogers discusses his concerns over the potential for a major correction in financial markets. He also identifies the sectors and countries that he’s bullish on.