Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Bear Markets Are Not Fun

Rising interest rates going to be the main problem and they're going to be serious but the trade war... Nobody's ever won a trade war and trade wars have never been good for anybody. So, that could be another problem and all of these things coming together. 

When you have bear markets everything goes wrong. When we are in a bull market everything goes right, bad news comes out and everybody says "Don't worry, we can solve this!"and stocks go up.

In bear markets, bad news starts coming out and people say "Oh my gosh! Guess what just happened" and then something else happens and it gets worse and worse. That's the way bear markets are. They're not fun but that's the way they are.

Interesting reading:

An interesting blog post from Peter Schiff on what he really considers to be the real national emergency apart from building the border wall: The Real National Emergency 

and also some interesting principles from Ray Dalio:

"Two people who collaborate well will be about three times as effective as each of them operating independently." : Principle Of The Day (4.5A & 4.5B)

And also why smaller groups seeking answers will perform better than larger groups: Principle Of The Day (4.5A & 4.5B)


Monday, February 18, 2019

The Federal Reserve Needs To Correct The Situation

The Federal Reserve after 2008 started printing money like never before in world history. Interest rates went to the lowest in world history and in some places they even went negative as other central banks followed America's central bank. The Fed's balance sheet alone increased by 500% and this all happened in 10 years.

 It's astonishing historically that this could ever happen if we were talking 20 years ago, 50 years ago or 100 years ago. If we said this would happen people would not have believed, they could not comprehend it because that's not what central banks and responsible people have ever done.

So the American central bank went nuts did something which has never been done we're all gonna pay the price. The debts keeps running higher and higher and now they're backing down again. The longer they wait to correct the situation the worst it is going to be in the end.

China's Economy Is Slowing

It is slowing, fortunately fortunately for China and fortunately for the world. When anything goes straight up without a pause is going to have a huge crash someday. The situation, the way I read it, well, you know what's happening with Trump, you know what's happening with the trade war and things of that sort. But also China has built up a lot of debt in the last decade or so and the government is now insisting, demanding and forcing people to start reducing their debt. When you go from adding debt to reducing debt, you're obviously going to have a slowdown. That's my assessment but I'm sure there are other things going on as well.

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Paper Money Is Going To Disappear

Paper money is going to disappear and it's going to be on the internet but this is going to be government money it's not going to be anybody else's money. Money is already disappearing in China and in many countries. China's far ahead of the United States for instance.

While I'm extremely optimistic about blockchain and I'm extremely optimistic about the changes of money to the internet which I know is happening it's not going to be crypto currencies because the government's are not going to let it happen.

Wednesday, February 13, 2019

Crypto Currencies Are All Going To Zero

Blockchain and crypto currencies are two entirely different things as you well know. Blockchain is going to change everything we know, it has a phenomenal future. 

Electricity changed everything we know and put a lot of people out of business. Blockchain is going to put a lot of people out of business too but it's great for the world. But crypto currencies are all gonna go to zero, they're all going to disappear.

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

Visiting North Korea Next Month

Chairman Kim Jong-un has invited Jim Rogers to visit North Korea next month. You can read the Korea Herald article here: Investor Jim Rogers to visit North Korea next month

Jim has been bullish on North Korea for years and considers that a unified Korea would be the most exciting country in the world:

"Korea is probably going to be the most exciting country in the world once North Korea opens which will and very soon. I mean it's right on the Chinese border, 80 million people, natural resources, cheap disciplined labor... It has lots of things going for it." - in November 30th, 2018

Monday, February 11, 2019

Emerging Markets: The Problem With Turkey

The problem from everybody's point of view is that Turkey is in a bad neighborhood. There's nothing wrong with Turkey, I love Turkey but the neighborhood is not particularly stable right now and there are lots of things going on in the neighborhood which could or could not badly affect Turkey.

Related trading tickers: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

Friday, February 8, 2019

Promising Areas To Invest

“Life is short. Ride hard and far. Make it happen." 
- Jim Rogers

Promising Areas To Invest

Jim Rogers was recently Korean talk show where he talked about promising investment areas like agriculture, pollution control and an Unified Korea. You can read the article here: Agricultural Stocks Surges on Jim Rogers Comments 

Why Governments Prefer Inflation 

Unfortunately governments usually wind up with inflation because it's easier for governments that way. It's easier to print money, it's easier to borrow money, it's easy to spend money and ultimately that leads to more inflation. Inflation makes people unhappy too but governments can at least do something or think they can do something. Deflation makes everybody angry and governments usually cannot do much except revert to inflation again. 

Rising Interest Rates Will Ruin People

Interest rates at least in America have a long history of long, long cycles. We're now headed up again and interest rates are going to go much, much, much higher over the next few decades and it's gonna ruin a lot of people.

Interesting Reading: 

What It Means to Be Principled and Why You Need to Do It

Plus, Peter Schiff says we are in a bear market.

Wednesday, February 6, 2019

Interest Rates: Latest Commentary

Interest Rates Are Still Very Low

Anybody who thinks these interest rates are high needs to go back and do a little history because these interest rates are the lowest in recorded American history. 

I mean we never had interest rates this low, this long (the last four or five years). So these are anything but high interest rates on a historic basis. 

That's true everywhere in the world. Interest rates were negative in some countries in the world. 

Japan has never had such low interest rates, much of the world has never ever had such low interest rates. So, if you think these interest rates are high please do some homework. 


Inflation and Interest Rates: How It Works

In periods of slow inflation people don't notice it so much. But when inflation starts rising rapidly then people notice it and they take action with their investments and other things as well. 

Certainly when inflation is here and coming back and getting stronger, interest interest rates are going to go higher because people have to be paid more on their money when inflation is here because the money's losing value every day. People want to compensate for that with higher interest rates.

Emerging Markets: India

India Is Going Deeper And Deeper Into Debt

As far as I'm concerned it's another case where it's India is going deeper and deeper into debt.

I know politicians try to buy as many votes as they can and mr. Moody's doing a very good job of preparing for the next election. 

I don't consider it good for India, I don't consider it good for the world and it certainly doesn't make India more attractive to me and perhaps not to other investors either.

Farming In India Has Many Problems

There are structural problems, they have all these rules and laws and regulations supposedly to protect the farmers. 

They make farming worse, it's more difficult to be a farmer in India than many other countries. 

If they would get rid of the regulations, get rid of the requirements maybe Indian farmers would be more prosperous. Giving them a handout is not going to improve Indian farming.

Principles (Ray Dalio)

Interesting principles from Ray Dalio:

"Two people who collaborate well will be about three times as effective as each of them operating independently." : Principle Of The Day (4.5A & 4.5B)

And also why smaller groups seeking answers will perform better than larger groups: Principle Of The Day (4.5A & 4.5B)


Monday, February 4, 2019

Farming In India Has Many Problems

Farming in India has many problems. There are structural problems, they have all these rules and laws and regulations supposedly to protect the farmers. They make farming worse, it's more difficult to be a farmer in India than many other countries.

If they would get rid of the regulations, get rid of the requirements maybe Indian farmers would be more prosperous. Giving them a handout is not going to improve Indian farming.

Interesting reading:

Friday, February 1, 2019

India: This Budget Does Not Make India More Attractive To Investors

As far as I'm concerned it's another case where it's India is going deeper and deeper into debt.

I know politicians try to buy as many votes as they can and mr. Moody's doing a very good job of preparing for the next election. 

I don't consider it good for India, I don't consider it good for the world and it certainly doesn't make India more attractive to me and perhaps not to other investors either.

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