Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Jim Rogers: How Life Has Changed In Coronavirus Times

Jim Rogers talks about how his life has changed due to the coronavirus health crisis and also how unprepared the United States was not prepared for this.

Markets were overbought before the crisis started and that has not helped.

Other interesting topics:

Peter Schiff says gold is not a fear trade but a hedge against the debasement of the dollar: Gold Isn't A Fear Trade 

Ray Dalio on How To Raise The Probability Of Being Right.  

Thursday, March 26, 2020

Coronavirus: The US Was Not Prepared

The United States has not been prepared and has not acted quickly and well. The world has known about the coronavirus for over 3 months yet the United States could not even test one million last week. This is a stark contrast to China, which has brought the virus under control within 3 months and is now helping other countries, while the US cannot solve its own situation.

Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Ray Dalio Insights (Part I)

Ray Dalio is one of the greatest investors and thinkers of our time. Ray has been sharing some valuable insights on his twitter account and here are a few of the most interesting:

On when to bet (very applicable to traders and investors):

You can significantly improve your track record if you only make the bets that you are most confident will pay off. Knowing when not to bet is as important as knowing what bets are probably worth making.

On not listening to uninformed people:

Make sure they’re fully informed and believable. Find out who is responsible for whatever you are seeking to understand and then ask them. Listening to uninformed people is worse than having no answers at all.

How meditation may help you keep an open mind and a bigger perspective on things:

In thinking about the principles that are helping me and might help you during this challenging time, this is one of them. I practice Transcendental Meditation and believe that it has enhanced my open-mindedness, higher-level perspective, equanimity, and creativity.

These posts will be expanded over the next few days with more interesting principles and topics.

Saturday, March 21, 2020

Stock Market’s Gain Under Trump Vanishes

Interesting article in the New York Times about the stock market performance during the Trump presidency. Believe or not, the american stock market is now negative since President Trump took office: Stock Market’s Gain Under Trump Vanishes

But nobody loved it like Mr. Trump. He has tweeted about the stock market at least 131 times since becoming president. He kept a running tally of stock market records — 135 by his last count, on Dec. 19. He personalized the rally, referring to “my stock market gains.”

Social Distancing

James Clear, the author of Atomic Habits gives some interesting advice on how to practice quality social distancing on social media:

"You can practice social distancing on social media too. Stay away from people who are infected with negativity, a lack of generosity, an unwillingness to seek truth, etc."

The Coronavirus Crisis Will Be Fatal

Interesting comment made by Peter Schiff on how fatal this virus induced crisis will be for all of us:

"I was against QE, ZIRP, and bailouts in 2008 because I knew that instead of allowing the economy to restructure, those mistakes would exacerbate the structural imbalances that led to the crisis. Since we didn't swallow the medicine then, the #Coronavirus crisis will be fatal now."

Thursday, March 19, 2020

Corona Crisis: Many Companies Will Need Bailouts

Jim Rogers commented on the current crisis on RT.com. The legendary investor expects airlines and shipping companies to be bailed out and that we are headed toward the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes:

I told RT earlier that the next time we are going to have a financial problem it’s going to be the worst… it appears we are headed toward the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes. We will know in a few months.

"Companies with big debts are especially vulnerable at this time."

"Companies participating in international trade in particular will have serious problems. Some of them will be bankrupt. Major airlines and shipping companies will probably be bailed out because it would otherwise be embarrassing for the countries."

The Worst Financial Crisis Of Our Lifetimes

Jim said in a recent interview that due to the recent developments with the COVID-19 spreading through the Western world, we are heading to a major financial crisis. Read the complete article here: ‘We’re Headed for the Worst Financial Crisis of Our Lifetimes’ – Jim Rogers 

Monday, March 16, 2020

This Crisis Is Economic, Not Merely Financial

Peter Schiff explains that this crisis is not "merely" a financial crisis like in 2008 but an economic crisis with much bigger repercussions:

The financial crisis of 2008 was a cake walk compared to this. All that happened in 2008 was real estate prices fell, borrowers defaulted, and lenders lost money. Today global commerce is grading to a halt. Production is shutting down. This crisis is economic, not merely financial.

Everyone Will Have To Be Bailed Out

Peter Schiff says it's game over as this time around everyone will have to be bailed out:

"In 2008 we bailed out the banks and GSE's, as they owned the mortgages. Today it's not just mortgage debtors who can't pay, it's all debtors. It's not just banks that need to be bailed out, but every leveraged business in every industry. Who is left to do the bailing? Game over!"

Thursday, March 12, 2020

Corona Virus: China Has Done a Great Job!

China has done a job. They were caught off guard, they were the first to face it, they were surprised. The disappointing thing to me is that the West is not ready either. We had a 3 month notice in America and yet nobody is prepared. We don’t even have testing kits for more than a million people in a country of 325 million people. China, once they got it together, they took very draconian, swift measures and seem to have it under control. I wish I could say that for Italy.

Thursday, March 5, 2020

Stock Market: Panic Is Misplaced

The stock market panic is misplaced. Markets will be OK for a while because central bankers will lower interest rates and governments will keep spending widely.

The U.S. Stock Market Will Rally Back To New Highs

If you ask me today, I would say we would make new highs in the US stock market. Now I use that since it is the largest and most important stock market. I would suspect we would see new highs. We may even have a blow-off bubble. It has been a while since we have had a blow-off bubble in any stock market in the world. So it may turn into a bubble. I do expect at least new highs before the whole thing collapses. 

- in Economic Times (March 4, 2020)

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Futures

Interest Rates Will Go Even Lower

I expect things to be OK for a while in nearly all markets, including bond markets. These guys are going to drive interest rates to unbelievably low levels. This is not good. I want to tell you again, this is not good for the world. But it is good for the markets for a while. 

- in Economic Times (March 4, 2020)

Markets Are Going To Be OK For a While

So now the markets are going to be okay for a while. We may even turn into a huge bubble, because they are going to print a lot more and they are going to spend a lot. It means, in the end, things will be worse, but in the meantime happy days are here. 

- in Economic Times (March 4, 2020)

Monday, March 2, 2020

Market Sell-Off: What To Buy

American stocks are down 14 percent. I mean, that's a big deal but you know, China is like 60 percent from its all-time high, Japan also. No, I would probably buy airlines in Asia because they have been decimated, totally decimated! Things like airlines, tourism companies, hotel chains, airports.

Sunday, March 1, 2020

The Reason Why Gold Sold Off

Everything is going down and you go back to previous bear markets, 2008 for instance, everything went down including gold. For a while gold went down a lot. Usually in bear markets people have to sell and they sell everything in sight including gold and that's when you buy gold. I'm gonna go buy this afternoon!

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM)

Corona Virus: Interest Rates, Money Printing

What you have in Asia and other places is, governments are panicking and they are cutting interest rates, printing money, spending money.

The United States is probably going to do that too if they get more and more panicked. if you start seeing cases in New York or Los Angeles or places where the media is. Then they're gonna cut interest rates, they're gonna spend more money and print more money and that might lead to the last big blow off rally.

How To Navigate This Sell-Off

Jim Rogers talks with Kitco News and tells traders and investors how to navigate this major sell-off in the markets.

"Living in Asia, yes, the shops are empty, yes, the restaurants are empty because everybody's in panic but very few people are sick." - Jim Rogers

"The virus, more or less is peaking.  Certainly in China. Because they took draconian measures. They closed the whole place down which you probably couldn't do in most countries but they did it. So, it's it's in decline,  it's in decline in Asia but still the effects are going on planes or restaurants or empty hotels. There's nobody there so it's having an effect." - Jim Rogers

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