Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Italian Banks, Deutsche Bank (DB)

The Italian banks are in trouble but so is Deutsche Bank (DB), which is the largest bank in Germany.

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

I Expect Bad Financial Times To Come

I do not see how the European union can survive on its current form. The world needs something to compete with the U.S. Dollar which is a terribly flawed currency. The Euro currency in theory would be good for the world. Unfortunately it was badly executed, a good theory badly executed and now we have many problems.

So, I do not expect the Euro currency to survive and I doubt the European Union will survive as we know it. Because since Brexit occurred it has encouraged many separatists in Europe that want to split up their countries from the EU.

As I expect bad financial times to come, when we have bad financial times, people always look for big change.

Monday, December 26, 2016

The U.S. Will Face a Crisis or A Semi-Crisis

No country has got itself into this kind of situation gets out without a crisis or a semi-crisis. Interest rates have started going back up, if they go to normal historical levels, it is impossible for the United States to pay the debt. We have to face the facts. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT))

Friday, December 23, 2016

Trump: Trade Wars, Serious Problems

Trade wars have always led to serious problems and often to real it has led to real war. So the facts are all in place for something like that to happen. I would like to think that there is some way that we can avert it. History does not show us any reason to be optimistic. (SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Copper Futures)

Thursday, December 22, 2016

Markets: What Now?

Now we are going to start focusing on interest rates, in what is happening in the real economy. There is a lot of debt. We will all have to start paying attention to the interest rate burden that everybody is going to suffer. I expect problems next year. (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA))

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Markets: Inflation Is Coming Back

We have inflation coming back, we have staggering amounts of debt. So I suspect that market interest rates are just going to keep trading higher. (iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT))

Stock Market: Its Far Ahead of Itself

The stock market is far ahead of itself at the moment. (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Futures, Russell 2000 Index)

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Trade Wars: It Will Lead to Bankruptcy and War

Trade wars have always failed. Trade wars have always led to bankruptcy and often to war throughout history. Even the people who understand this, sometimes think, do not worry, it is different this time, I can control this. Mr. Trump certainly thinks he can control it, but the facts are this is very worrysome for the world over the next several years.

Monday, December 19, 2016

Many People In Asia Do Not Like Trump

Many people in Asia do not particularly like Trump but that is based on what they read on the mainstream media, their media is like ours, they just repeat what the U.S. and the U.K. say, so, the main view here in Asia is that now the United States is pulling out, withdrawing from Asia and that is a gigantic opportunity for China, and China sees it.

Friday, December 16, 2016

When Will the Dollar Start Looking Like a Bubble

One hundred and ten in the Dollar Index certainly does not sound like a bubble to me. I will just have to judge the circumstances at the time. You will be able to read the newspapers and everybody will be talking about how the Dollar is going to go up forever, you will see on TV that the Dollar is the new promised land.

People will be pouring into dollars...I try to judge those things by the mood. Bubbles throughout history everywhere in the world, no matter the asset, always look and sound the same. I hope I am smart enough to recognize it.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

The Dollar Strength Will Continue

The U.S. Dollar strength is going to go on for a while. The U.S. Dollar is going to get overprices, the U.S. Dollar may even turn into a bubble. (EUR USD forex cross, USDJPY forex cross, SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Gold: The One Thousand Mark

It may not get to one thousand dollars an ounce, it may not even get there at all. I am pretty bad at market timing. But if it does, I expect to load up. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Novagold (NG))

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Gold: In The End Gold Will Turn Into A Bubble

I am a terrible market timer and a horrible short term trader. I own gold, I have hedged some of my gold. I expect that if gold gets on one thousand dollars an ounce, I hope I am smart enough to buy a lot of gold because in the end, this is all going to end in huge mess and in a bubble for gold. My price to remove my edges and to buy a lot more gold is under one thousand. (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

Monday, December 12, 2016

Trump Rally: It Surprises Me That Investors Are So Enthusiastic

It surprises me that people are as enthusiastic as they are given that Mr. Trump says he is going to start trade wars. At the moment everybody seems to be focusing on the fact that he is going to cut taxes which is fabulous for any economy and that he is going to be building new infrastructure that we desperately need. Nobody seems to be focusing on where will the money be coming from, and secondly how are we going to do all this with trade wars.

Thursday, December 8, 2016

The Fundamentals For Crude Oil Are Improving

The fundamentals for crude oil are improving. For example, Saudi Arabia has not found any major oil field for a long time. Other big oil producers like Iraq, Iran or Nigeria have not found a lot of oil too. Only the fracking companies have found a lot of oil but they cannot make any money if oil prices are low. (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil futures, Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

Gold: Interested If It Drops Below A Thousand (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD))

I have not bought any gold for many years now and I am not a buyer of gold at these prices right now. I hedged my gold and if gold drops below a thousand dollars per ounce I may buy a lot more. (SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF(NYSE:GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX))

Monday, December 5, 2016

Crude Oil Outlook: A Trading Range With Some Upside

I own some crude oil but I am not a good market timer or a good trader. My view is that we are in a complicated bottoming process that could last a couple of years. So far the trading range has been between 30 and 40 dollars a barrel, it will likely be a little bit more on the upside of that range. 60 dollars a barrel is not an unusual price for crude oil. (United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Nymex Crude Oil futures, Marathon Oil (MRO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE))

Friday, December 2, 2016

Investors Should Own Energy

Investors should own energy because reserves of energy continue to decline around the world and so, crude oil fundamentals are still getting better. (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP))

Crude Oil: The Market Is Smarter Than OPEC

The question is that the market is way smarter than oil producers, smarter than OPEC. So, I do not really pay much attention to OPEC meetings. They can sit down and have meetings that will go on for days and nights but there are a lot of oil producers in the world that are not on the agreement to cut production. (Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Marathon Oil (MRO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP))

Thursday, December 1, 2016

The OPEC Cut: What's Ahead For Oil?

The OPEC cut announcement is not surprising to me but the key is to wait and see if they really do it. OPEC has made these kind of announcements for decades. Most have not really worked but this one is making crude oil go up and it will probably continue to do so. But what really matter is that crude oil fundamentals are continuing to improve. (Nymex Crude Oil futures, Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE), United States Oil Fund LP ETF (USO), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Marathon Oil (MRO), ConocoPhillips (COP))

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