Bonds Are In A Bubble

 

"As I look around the world, bonds are certainly in a bubble. Stocks in some countries are near highs. Property in many places is in a bubble. About the only asset class I see that’s still cheap, are commodities."

How To Become A Successful Investor

 

Precious investment lessons from the legendary investor, Jim B. Rogers.

Everybody wants a hot tip, everybody wants to get rich this month. That is not how you become successful.

It's Difficult To Make A Steady Income Trading

One interesting quote from Unknown Market Wizards about how difficult it is to make a steady income trading:

"Opportunities are dispersed. You might have an opportunity today and then have to wait three months for the next opportunity. That reality is hard to accept because you want to make a steady income from trading, but it doesn't work that way."

-- Richard Bargh, Unknown Market Wizards

U.S. Stock Market: It's Not A Full-Fledged Bubble Yet

Many stocks in the United States are down in 2020. There are a few stocks that are going through the roof every day. Some parts of the U.S. stock market are developing the beginning of a bubble but many parts of the market are not and that's why I would suspect this is going to go on for a while because it's not a full-fledged bubble yet. It's beginning to be in some stocks.

Money Printing Is Going Into The Markets

The United States central bank has been printing gigantic amounts of money and the central government has been spending huge amounts of money. So all this money's got to go somewhere it's going into the markets.

Video: U.S. Stock Market Outlook

 Jim Rogers gives his outlook on the U.S. stock market. 

"Maybe we'll have a pullback but if so then Washington DC is going to panic and do everything they can to get the markets up again but that's true in several other countries around the world."

Bonds Are Risky, Commodities Are Cheap.

Bonds have never been this high in the recorded history of the world, so that's a problem. The cheapest asset class is commodities. Silver is down fifty percent from its all-time high while sugar is down eighty percent from its all-time high. Agriculture is a disaster. I'm buying more agriculture as we speak.

Japanese Market May Go Back To Its All-Time High

I wouldn't be surprised if the Japanese market - and this isn't a prediction - went back to its all-time high during this period. We can have a wonderful time while the guy at the Bank of Japan, Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, is printing and buying, printing and buying.

Related trading instruments: Nikkei 225, TOPIX

Weekend Thoughts: Diversification, Trading Discipline, Goals

Some interesting thoughts and quotes from this weekend on twitter:

"To be calm is the highest achievement of the self.” 

-- Zen Proverb

"Diversification is a hedge against a lack of knowledge."
-- Naval Ravikant

"If you are lonely when you're alone, you are in bad company."
-- Jean Paul Sartre

Trading related, this thought from Mark Minervini on discipline is very interesting:

"There's a very simple test to see if you are disciplined and actually have a strategy. After you make a trade, especially when at a loss, do you find yourself hoping?"

Paul Graham predicts that tech companies will keep on winning: 

"Prediction: Remote work will become so fashionable that even companies that don't get it will try to embrace it, leading to a bimodal distribution of outcomes. This bimodal distribution will be the same we've seen over and over already: tech cos will win."

Finally here's a link to Ray Dalio's piece on  How To Focus On A Goal. 

Time Is Money

"To compound your capital rapidly, you want to be where the action is. You can’t afford to tie up your capital waiting for the rest of the world to agree with you; time is money. The goal is not to buy at the cheapest price but to sell your stock for more than the price you paid."

--Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in The Stock Market Wizards

Progress & Setbacks

A fantastic quote from a great book:

“Progress happens too slowly to notice, setbacks happen too quickly to ignore.”

— Morgan Housel, Psychology of Money

Video Interview: How To Invest

Highlights:  

"When you're 21, you don't know a lot about investing."

"If you don't understand the numbers, you should not be investing."

"Everybody wants to be rich this week."

"There's more than one way to be a good investor."

Short Story: School & Life Teachings

A very interesting short story from Matthew Kobach:

School: “Here’s the answer. Now tell me the answer.” 

Life: “There might be an answer. There also might not be an answer. Go find out.”

Seven Investing Rules

 

Do your research. Invest in what you know. Embrace change. Stay away from hot investment tips. 

Watch the video to find all the seven investment rules! Learn to become a successful investor. 

Paradoxes of Trading

"Paradoxes of Trading. The more money you make, the bigger your drawdowns will become. Paradoxically that fear of those bigger drawdowns holds many people back from getting bigger."

-- Steven Goldstein, Trader Performance Coach and host of the The AlphaMind Podcast

Greatness Takes Time

"You can't force experience... that takes time. Be patient with yourself and stay the course. With a good plan and persistence, everyday you take step in the direction of your dreams, while those who want it fast without putting in the work give up and quit.

Greatness takes time... stay the course."

-- Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in the The Stock Market Wizards

The Secret For Success

My secret for success: When someone has more success than me, I pull up a chair with pad & pen and shut my mouth while I listen and take notes. I'm willing to put my ego aside and learn from success instead of envying it. No matter how successful I get, I maintain this humility.

-- Mark Minervini

PS: Mark Minervini was profiled in the Stock Market Wizards book, the third book from the Market Wizards books written by Jack Schwager. Jim Rogers was profiled in the original book, Market Wizards. 

Bitcoin & Investing Mistakes

 Sharing some interesting reading on Bitcoin:

Bitcoin: A New Kind Of Bubble?

Roubini: Bitcoin Has No Role In Portfolios

The Bitcoin Mania On CNBC

Investing quote of the day, 

“A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact but in light of the information until that point.”
-- Nassim Taleb

Thought of the day,

"When you realize there is nothing lacking, the whole world belongs to you."
-- Lao Tzu

One Very Important Skill Great Traders Have

"One very important skill great traders have is the ability to gauge when to step on the gas and get aggressive and when to ride the brake or even sit out completely. Most of the time you should not be trading very aggressively. Trading requires a lot of patience and stalking."

-- Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in The Stock Market Wizards book

Jim Rogers: Technology and Communications

The world works better when we are open & willing to work together.

China is ahead of us in digital money and innovation in general. 

Markets: Biggest Risks in 2021

 Latest article on Reuters: U.S. debt, Fed easy money biggest risks in 2021: Jim Rogers

Topics covered: 2021 biggest risks, the new Administration, the U.S. Dollar and Janet Yellen.

Investing: How You Become Successful

Everybody watching this knows a lot about something whether it's sports, cars, fashion or something else.

You look at it every day, you go on the internet, you read about it because that's what you love. 

When you see a change taking place that you know is going to be successful because you know a lot about that, then do more research and make investments. That's how you become successful!

History Is Clear On What Happens Next

Every central bank and every government is spending, borrowing and printing as much money as they can. Markets love it! I'm not sure what the world is going to think about it in a few years.

The Next Bear Market

Arcticle on Market Watch, The next bear market will be the worst in at least 78 years, warns co-founder of Soros’s legendary Quantum Fund 🐻

 - Highlighted quote from the article: 

🗣   ‘It’s good to be old. Young people have a very bleak future ahead of them.’

Article on Daily Mail UK,  Hedge fund millionaire's dire prediction that Australia will suffer a downturn WORSE than the Great Depression - so what should you buy to survive?

 - Highlighted quote from the article: 

🗣   "One notable feature of this latest crisis was both how sharply market conditions deteriorated and how quickly they recovered. The actions by central banks and governments around the globe doubtless contributed to this rebound."

America Should Focus More On Long-Term Growth

 

History tells us competition and openness make us greater. Check out this fruitful dialogue with international investor & author Jim Rogers.

Video duration: 7m08s

Highlights: 

America should focus more on long-term growth.

"I wish America would not do what it's doing. I wish that America if it's going to spend money it would spend money on developing infrastructure. In America we're just spending it on making sure people have jobs which is great for the people but it's not good for the long-term growth of America."

Jim Rogers Tips Trump Win

This week's press roundup:

Starting with the interview with Financial Review: Jim Rogers tips Trump win, market 'blow-off'

One of the highlights from this interview was when Jim said, "I am not a betting person at all – but if I was, I would bet Trump was going to win."

In another interview with the Daily Mail Australia, Jim Rogers predicts a dire outlook for Australia:
Australia will suffer a downturn WORSE than the Great Depression

Highlights from this article,

'Governments everywhere and central banks everywhere are printing and borrowing and spending huge amounts of money - as long as that lasts, the markets are very happy'

'Australia could be extremely susceptible because your politicians keep making enemies of people that you shouldn't be enemies of - like China.'

Trump Is Better For The Stock Market

If Donald Trump wins, the stock market is more likely to stay higher for a while. If the opposition wins, normally what happens is the opposition comes in, cleans out everything they want to clean out, take the pain now so that they can get reelected next time around.

Theoretically if Joe Biden wins it won't be as good as if Mr. Trump wins. Maybe that's what the market has been telling us recently.

Street Smarts: Animated Book Summary

Here’s an animated book summary of Street Smarts. Enjoy:

The book “Street Smarts” by Jim Rogers is an engaging memoir and also a great source of financial education and investment advice from a person who has traveled all over the world with the purpose to see and understand how the countries’ economies and political regimes have evolved. Learn where the next great place to live will be and which country offers the best investment opportunities at the moment, from a guy who not only delivers financial commentary on TV but walks his talks with great success.

Buy the book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Street-Smarts-Adventures-Road-Markets-ebook/dp/B008WOUFIS

Currencies: No Real Alternative To Invest

I wonder all the time where to put my money and I do not find any place that is really a great alternative to the U.S. Dollar at the moment. The Pound Sterling? Forget it! The Euro currency? Maybe temporarily. The Chinese currency? Yes, but it's a blocked currency! Japan? They have huge problems in Japan.

Central Banks: The Printing Presses Are Running At Unbelievable Speed!

 A few highlights from the video,

"The printing presses are running at unbelievable speed."

"I have young children. America is leaving them a terrible, terrible legacy."

Digital Currencies Are The Future - Jim B. Rogers

Digital currency is the future says Jim Rogers. The legendary investor predicts governments will create their own digital currencies. Unlike Bitcoin, these digital currencies will be controlled by the governments that create them. 

How The Rich People Tend To Behave

Interesting readings on financial twitter today:

"Material possessions shouldn't be the goal, experiences and stories are so much more satisfying."

-- Jim OShaughnessy, Founder, Chairman, OSAM LLC


“I observed at an early age, the rich people around me rarely bought anything, while the poor people around me were always shopping.”

-- Tom Ragland

"The best aren't working for money, it's about the satisfaction of creating something out of nothing."

--Orange Book

On other topics, Adam Grant has a will have his new book out soon,

"Great thinkers don’t boast about how much they know. They marvel at how little they understand. If knowledge is power, knowing what we don't know is wisdom. It gives us the mental agility to rethink our assumptions."

China Selling U.S. Treasuries Will Pressure Interest Rates

China reducing American debt will put pressure on U.S. interest rates, they should be going up. From the Chinese standpoint, it’s a smart economic and investment move, one that would strengthen the Chinese yuan. If they sell US debt, they sell dollars, therefore their currency goes higher.

2020 Election: Biden With Largest Lead

 From Nate Silver's, Five Thirty Eight:

"Really more polls are coming in showing Biden up double digits than not at this point. He's up to +9.8 in our national polling average, his largest lead of the campaign."

-- Biden 51.9%

-- Trump 42.1%

Markets: Commodities Still Get No Respect

Commodities still get no respect most commodities at lest, certainly not now. I mean, there have been
periods, for example crude oil went to $150 a barrel for a minute, or for a day. Things do happen but for the most part people have ignored commodities again. But don't worry they'll be back especially if we keep printing money the way we're printing money.

If economies keep collapsing and nobody can go to work, that cuts demand but it also cuts supply eventually. If they keep printing money the demand will be there eventually too.

Jack Schwager: Psychology Is More Important Than Technique

 Listen to the latest video interview of Jack Schwager, this weekend at the Traders Summit 2020. In this interviews Jack addressed several different topics including his new book Unknown Market Wizards:  

The world-famous author Jack Schwager gave a fantastic interview and took questions from panelists and guests. He revealed his new book “Unknown Market Wizards”, adding that it’s a collection of interviews of highly successful traders who are relatively unknown to the world. He said that stock traders and futures traders are usually quite different and closed with a pearl of advice: “Psychology is more important than technique”.

Tech Stocks: A Ticking Time Bomb!

This bull market is getting very old. Several hyped-up stocks are likely to crash when the next bear market comes. A time bomb is ticking in the technology space. 

People are thinking that stocks like Amazon (AMZN) and Alibaba can never go down. I advise investors to read market history that they can go down and they will go down. We will have more bear markets!

When the bear market comes, emerging markets like India will go down a lot. India has been building up debt, and I don’t like that!

Jim Rogers On China, Technology & COVID

 Jim Rogers speaks about China, global trade, technology and how things will work out post-COVID. A must listen video interview.

"At the moment you know there are problems between the United States and China. Whenever in history politicians have problems they blame foreigners and the Americans are blaming China right now!" 

-- Jim Rogers, American investor

Books Written By Self-Made Billionaires

Here’s  a list of nine books written by self-made billionaires. They share ideas and concepts to help you succeed in business and in life.

Some of the books on the list are,

• “Principles: Life and Work”, by Ray Dalio
• “Shoe Dog: A Memoir By the Creator of Nike”, by Phil Knight
• “Business @ the Speed of Thought: Succeeding in the Digital Economy”, by Bill Gates
• “Lean In: Women, Work, and the Will to Lead”, by Sheryl Sandberg
• “How to Win at the Sport of Business: If I Can Do It, You Can Do It”, by Mark Cuban
• “Zero to One: Notes on Startups, or How to Build the Future”, by Peter Thiel

You can read the complete article on CNBC.com, 9 books written by self-made billionaires to help you succeed in business and in life

"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest." - Benjamin Franklin

 

COVID: Politicians Are Overreacting

On the newswires right now:

SCOTLAND BANS PEOPLE FROM VISITING OTHER PEOPLE'S HOMES

We’ve had worldwide epidemics before but never before have politicians reacted the wrong way.


"In 2009 we had the H1N1 virus in America. Well, they didn't close McDonald's, they didn't close the airports. This time for whatever reason politicians, academics and journalists seem to have overreacted and said we have to close the whole world.

We've had many epidemics and never before have we closed the whole world. So in my view, they made mistakes and that's what has made this so horrible." - Jim Rogers, September 2020

Ray Dalio Sets Up Tent Offices In The Woods

This is an interesting move to protect workers from COVID:

"Ray Dalio's Bridgewater hedge fund has set up tents in the woods near its headquarters so traders and other staffers can breathe fresh air while they work during the pandemic": Hedge fund Bridgewater set up tent offices in the woods to beat COVID-19

Gold Will Continue To Do Well

I expect gold to continue to make new highs; silver is down about 45 per cent from its all-time high. I would expect silver to make all-time high too, before this is over. Silver is certainly cheaper than gold on a historic basis. I would expect both to continue to do well, because the world is going to have problems in the next few years.

Investing: India Is Hot!

There is so much money being printed nearly everywhere and spent. So it has got to go somewhere. Emerging markets were also beaten down a lot. So we are seeing them rally. Look at what is happening in India. Everyone is investing there now. It is hot!

Precious Metals: Silver Will Make An All-Time High Too

I expect gold to continue to make new highs; silver is down about 45 per cent from its all-time high. I would expect silver to make all-time high too.

Related trading instruments and tickers: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV)

Investing: I Do Not Remember A Time Like This

 

Highlights:

- How COVID has changed investing

- Countries have overreacted when they closed their economies

- Japanese monetary policy

- Declining population plus debt is an explosive combo for Japan 

COVID: Closing Economies Was A Mistake

We’ve had worldwide epidemics before but never before have politicians reacted the wrong way.

In 2009 we had the H1N1 virus in America. Well, they didn't close McDonald's, they didn't close the airports. This time for whatever reason politicians, academics and journalists seem to have overreacted and said we have to close the whole world.

We've had many epidemics and never before have we closed the whole world. So in my view, they made mistakes and that's what has made this so horrible.

Todays Thoughts: Psychology of Money, Successful People and Wine

A few great thoughts from Twitter,

"The most successful people are not dogmatic and recognize that a better idea or new information today can be reason enough to change your approach."

-- Mark Cuban, entrepreneur

"The 10 Minute Rule: You put the red wine in the fridge 10 minutes before you open it. You take the white wine out of the fridge 10 minutes before you open it."

-- J.C. Parets, technical analyst

And a review of “The Psychology of Money” by Morgan Housel.

Be Audacious

"Be audacious. There is always a best possible path. Your job is to find it and have the courage to follow it. What you think is attainable is just a function of what you know at the moment. Once you start your pursuit you will learn a lot, especially if you triangulate with others; paths you never saw before will emerge."

 Ray Dalio, September 2020

Gold Will Go Higher

Q: Berkshire Hathaway recently made a 500 million dollar investment in Barrick Gold. Any views on that?

A: I don't own any gold shares at the moment. I prefer the real stuff. But if I'm right, if they're right, the price of gold and silver precious metals is going to go higher.

Video: Interview With Bloor Street Capital

 

Topics: 

- investing with George Soros

- incredible returns are possible, there are always plenty of opportunities

- some things are overvalued right now

- shorting asset bubbles is very difficult

Real Estate: Dramatic Changes Going On Right Now

A lot of kinds of real estate are going through dramatic changes right now. Offices, commercial real estate, shopping centers... a lot of kinds of real estate are going through dramatic changes right now.

You could go to Canada or Australia, there are many places where you can go and buy property. I wouldn't buy property in Sydney, I might buy it in the outback in Australia.

We have been doing home delivery for 10 years but now it's accelerating. Getting food delivered at home and other things delivered at home... That's one of the problems for real estate as i said before. There's not so much need for all these shopping centers and department stores anymore. so all of this is changing and it's accelerating.

Commodities Are Cheap, Bonds Are In A Bubble!

I'm looking at all asset classes in all countries and commodities seem to be the cheapest

asset class in the world right now. Certainly not government bonds. Government bonds are a bubble.

I look at assets and I see government bonds are the most overpriced in the world and agriculture is probably the cheapest in the world right now.

Marc Faber: Peak Activity Will Not Come Back For Years

 

Dr. Faber says that the economy will not recover for years. 

Marc shares his thoughts about the economic recovery and how long will it take for economies to get back to peak activity. 

Other topics:

- the effectiveness of MMT. 

- Keynesian economics.

How Will The U.S. Pay This Enormous Debt?

In previous economic hard times companies that people never thought could go bankrupt collapsed don't think it cannot happen it has happened and it will happen again. 

Six months ago the United States was the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. We never had any other country been so deep into debt. Since then the U.S. has increased its debt by trillions with a T, trillions more. 

If you give me a few trillion dollars I will show you a very, very good time. We will all have a wonderful time with a few trillion dollars but somebody eventually has to pay the price because somebody has to worry about paying it back.

I Bought More Gold Last Week

"I own gold as as you probably know. I bought more gold last week. I suspect gold and silver both will go much higher before this is over because currencies everywhere are being debased."

Gold Will Go A Lot Higher

If I’m right, gold is going to go much, much, much higher before this is over. Gold may well turn into a bubble. I hope it doesn’t, because if it turns into a bubble, I’ll have to sell it and I never want to sell it. I want my children to have my gold and silver someday.

Finding The Right Trading Style For You

I know I'm a terrible short-term trader. I don't even try it anymore. I didn't know it then but i found out...

Whether the style picks you or you picked the style. For me it was trial and error.

Nobody likes to hear it, everybody wants a hot tip. Everybody wants to be rich this month. Well the second advice is don't listen to hot tips.

Howard Marks: Life Will Go On

 

The question every investor is confronted with right now is how do you put capital at risk with any degree of confidence when the outlook is more uncertain that at any time in modern history?

Trump Will Go Tough Against China

 

"You have a lot of uncertainties... Number one is the election. Trump officially started his campaign, he was nominated, he accepted. Now, he's going to go hard on China. His popularity or the polls are indicating his his nose diving. So, he's just going to come out and look like going tough against China." - Nader Naiemi, AMP Capital

Covid 19: Politicians Have Overreacted

 

Highlights from the interview:

"Being a young person in America right now is not a good thing to be."

"In 2009 we had the H1N1 virus in America well they didn't close McDonald's (MCD) they didn't close the airports this time for whatever reason politicians seem to have overreacted."

Jim Rogers: Where I'm Investing Right Now

Anything that I'm buying and I have bought a couple of things... I'm buying one because they're so beaten down that no matter what happens I don't think they're gonna go down much more.

I'm gonna give you an example.I'm not buying Venezuela, I cannot buy Venezuela because I'm an American and it's sanctioned so Americans cannot buy assets in Venezuela. But someone who is able to buy Venezuela could probably buy Venezuela now because no matter how bad things get Venezuela is not going to go down very much and it may if any and it may start reviving.

So there are things like that. Now again, I'm not buying Venezuela, I would like to but I cannot but I'm trying to find things like that. Stocks, companies that are in that kind of situation and i have bought a couple of those recently.

Investing: Russian Bonds

I'm not here to give hot tips but one might look at Russian ruble bonds again. They do have high yields and it's not a credit risk. Russia is not going bankrupt whatever happens.

People Think Investing Is Easy. It's Not!

This is 2020 who wants to wait till next week to get rich? We want to get rich this week! We want a hot tip that's gonna make us rich very, very quickly so that we don't have to think about it and that's part of the problem. Everybody thinks this is easy.

COVID 19: Politicians Are Making Huge Mistakes

Jim Rogers comments on the money printing mistakes being done from Central Banks and governments all over the world.

Bitcoin Is Headed To Zero

Virtual currencies beyond the influence of the government will not be allowed to survive—and said the bitcoin price is headed to zero. If the cryptocurrency succeeds as real money, rather than the subject of gambling as it is today, the government will make the cryptocurrency illegal and eliminate it. 

The government likes electronic money. Because with electronic money, you can track when, where, who spent what amount. Governments will have more control over people through electronic money. The government wants to know everything. Controllable electronic money will survive, and virtual currencies beyond the influence of the government will be erased.

The Markets Will Continue Fairly Strong

I would suspect the markets will continue to be fairly strong but the US stock market just made its all-time high because there's so much money being printed and there's so much money being spent and it's gotta go somewhere. But it is going to end, I assure you.

Video Interview: Virus, Debt, Markets

Jim Rogers comments on the current market situation

• Coronavirus
• Debt situation
• Financial markets

Money Printing & Deficit Spending: It Will End Badly

There's an election in November in the United States. None of those guys care about you and me or other people or young people like my kids. They care about the election. They want to print and spend and borrow as much money as they can to win the election. 

We're all gonna pay a very difficult price afterwards. The amount of debt that has been added... America was already the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and in the last month they have added staggering amounts of debt and they continue to add more and they're printing more money.

Nowhere in the history of the world has that kind of action done good things. Maybe in the short term it does good things but nowhere in history has it done good things in the long term.

Will Markets Ever Be The Same Again?

“We could have asked the same question (will financial markets ever be the same?) after the Spanish flu, the collapse of 1929, …after the huge collapse of 2008 and 2009.

And you know what? Yes, they are always the same. Human being always get greedy. They always get scared and panic. They have not repealed the laws of fear and greed…

You can go back to an tragedy and any triumph you want to and people said the same thing: Will things be the same later? And they always were… People are always talking about the lessons of history. The main lesson of history is people don’t learn the lessons of history…”

Emerging Markets: Macro & COVID-19

In this episode of Ahead of the Curve, Real Vision guides viewers on a journey of understanding through the present and future of emerging markets.

Michael Nicoletos, co-founder and CIO of AppleTree Capital, speaks with Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests and famous emerging markets investor in Singapore. They talk about the next move for the dollar, which emerging markets he is currently investing in, and why he looks for disaster when he is deploying capital.

Then, Real Vision’s own Roger Hirst speaks with Mark Mobius, partner at Mobius Capital Partners, in Germany. Mobius breaks down the importance of technology, travel, and other macroeconomic factors that impact emerging markets. He explains why he believes the recovery could be as fast as the meltdown.

Nicoletos then speaks to Dr. Simon Ogus, founder and CEO of DSG Asia Limited. Dr. Ogus talks about the impact of COVID-19 on emerging markets through his view from Hong Kong. He relates the Asia-specific perspective on the impact of the virus on currencies, growing alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, and the future of globalism. Filmed May 11-15, 2020.

Pandemic: The US Has Done The Worst Job

Sweden did nothing, some US states did nothing and they say they're going to come out ahead. We know that the United States has the highest number of deaths, the highest number of cases reported if you can believe anybody.  I'm always skeptical of believing the numbers the US has done the worst job or the least good job of handling the whole thing.

Markets: Commodities, COVID-19

Latest video market update from Jim Rogers on commodities, financial markets and the COVID-19 pandemic. How markets will evolve from here and who will be the winners and the losers.

Investing: Silver Is Cheaper Than Gold

If you look at the ratio of silver and gold, it is highest it has ever been in recorded history. Never in history has silver been this cheap compared with gold. Maybe there are reasons but there are always reasons when something like this happens. I want to own precious metals. And certainly, in the next five years, I would prefer to own gold or silver. But if I had the option, I would own silver just because it is cheaper. I own both. I bought more gold recently but I would rather prefer to buy silver today than either of the two you mentioned.

Investing: Where To Look

Agriculture is still a disaster. Agriculture's probably got great opportunities. Gold and Silver, some parts of the world that have been smashed like transportation, airlines, tourism anything to do with travel has been killed. I'm also looking into a shipping company in Russia.

The Worst Problem Of My Lifetime

In 2008, the world had a problem because of too much debt. Since then, the debt has skyrocketed everywhere. Even in India and China, everywhere. Ten years ago China had no debt now it has a lot of debt. And next time we have a problem...that we are having now. It will be the worst in my lifetime.

Investing: Silver, India

Investing: Healthcare Over The Internet

I would suggest you find something that has very good growth prospects. I mentioned to you, healthcare over the internet for instance. Now I do not have any names, but that is going to be a great way to make money in the future if you can find he companies that are going to do. Especially in India, it is going to have a great future.

Nations Must Save, Invest & Work Hard

Any economy which saves and invests and works hard always wins out in the future over countries which consume, borrow and spend.

Putting South Korea On The Watchlist

If Kim Jong Un has passed, nothing has been confirmed to my knowledge, I’ll be putting South Korea on my watch list. Unification of North/South could have more upside than East/West Germany.

Related tickers: iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY)

Investing: The Best Advice I Ever Got

The best advice I ever got was on a airplane. It was in my early days on Wall Street. I was flying to Chicago, and I sat next to an older guy. Anyway, I remember him as being an old guy, which means he may have been forty. He told me to read everything. If you get interested in a company and you read the annual report, he said, you will have done more than ninety eight percent of the people on Wall Street. And if you read the footnotes in the annual report you will have done more than one hundred percent of the people on Wall Street.

I realized right away that if I just literally read a company’s annual report and the notes  - or better yet, two or three years of reports - that I would know much more than others. Professional investors used to sort of be dazzled. Everyone seemed to think I was smart. I later realized that I had to do more than just that. I learned that I had to read the annual reports of those I am investing in and their competitors annual reports, the trade journals, and everything that I could get my hand on. But I realized that most people do not bother even doing the basic homework. And if I did even more, I would be so far ahead that I would probably be able to find successful investments.

Lower Crude Oil Prices Are Good For The World

Pricing power shifts from commodity producer to commodity consumers. We are looking at a new order in the world where the total wealth effect will shift away let's say from oil-producing nations like Russia or Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria and Venezuela to consuming nations like India and China.

This is good for China it's good for India, good for Germany, good for Japan. It's good for oil consumers and it's good for oil consuming nations. Oil producers or suffering now and many other companies in those countries as well. But for the world yes, it's good.

Crude Oil Will Not Stay At Zero

You're already seeing bankruptcies, some shale producers in the United States have declared bankruptcy and some drilling companies, so it's happening.

What happened last night was an aberration (crude going negative in price). I don't think you'll see another one like that. You know, the June contract is over 20 in Europe oil is over 20. So, I don't think that crude oil is gonna stay at zero. It was only one night for one special reason.

How To Invest

If you could only have 20 investments in your life you'll be very careful. You wouldn't be jumping in and out of something you just read about. That's what you should do!

Shocking How Little Prepared America Was

It's a bit of a shock to find out how little America prepared for this. In China they didn't know it was coming so of course they were not prepared. China, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and other places seem to have done a much better job of dealing with the virus. America had a three months notice it was coming, the world knew was happening. America did nothing. Last week you couldn't even get a test.

How My Life Has Changed

I cannot leave Singapore if I wanted to because the airports are closed, the airlines are closed and yet most countries are closed. I couldn't go to China if I wanted to, or Korea. So my life has changed a lot I used to travel a lot and now I'm home. Nothing wrong with being at home, quite delighted but it certainly changed my life. I don't go out very much because it's very hard to go out now. So lots of change.

Gold Will Likely Hit New All-Time Highs

Gold will likely hit all time highs on this move. Despite that Silver is cheaper than gold on a relative basis and that is why Jim is buying.

Related trading instruments: iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD)

Jim Rogers: The Economic Reset Has Begun

In 2008 we had a huge problem because of too much debt the next time it's going to be worse because the debt has gone higher and higher and higher it's a fairly simple statement I'm surprised it got so much attention.

What I'm Buying Right Now

I bought some Chinese wine stocks last week. Russian transportation companies, shipping companies. I'm looking, there are things, and if I weren't talking to you, I'd probably be buying Japan right now. The Japanese market went down a lot. They don't care about anything except getting the stock market up, so they're going to be up. Again, this is not sound, this is not good for 12 year old Japanese, but what do they care? This is going to happen.

Central Bankers Cannot Save The World

Central banks are made up of bureaucrats and academics who do not know what they’re doing. They do not know how markets work. They don’t much about the real world. These guys can’t save the world. All they want to do is save their jobs.

I Expect To Buy More Silver, Gold

When people lose confidence in governments and money they buy gold and silver. Whether they should or not doesn't matter, they always have. Well, I'm a person like everybody else. I own gold, I own silver and I will be buying more. 

On a historic basis silver is much cheaper than gold right now. If you go back and look at any ratios over the past hundreds of years or even in biblical times, gold is much, much more expensive now than silver. 

I expect to buy some more silver and some more gold but I'll probably buy more silver than gold at these circumstances.

Markets: How Things Will Play Out

There comes a time when the market says, "Listen, we don't care, we understand this is all garbage. We don't want your garbage anymore, we're going to sell no matter what you say." and in the end the market has more money than anybody else including central banks.

Jim Rogers: Worst Yet to Come for U.S. Markets

In my view, we are going to have a rally, we usually do but then, the worst is yet to come because the damage is terrible. We are going to have a really serious recession.

Jim Rogers: Market Update

Latest video market update from Jim Rogers in a recent video interview with Silver Bullion TV. Enjoy and stay safe!

This Will Be The Worst Bear Market Of Our Lifetime

I expect in the next couple of years we’re going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime. The impact of the virus on economies will not be over quickly because there’s been a lot of damage. A gigantic amount of debt has been added. There is absolutely no question that throughout history, when you’ve had bear markets, companies with low debt are the ones that people love the most because they don’t have to worry about bankruptcy.

Jim Rogers: How Life Has Changed In Coronavirus Times

Jim Rogers talks about how his life has changed due to the coronavirus health crisis and also how unprepared the United States was not prepared for this.

Markets were overbought before the crisis started and that has not helped.

Other interesting topics:

Peter Schiff says gold is not a fear trade but a hedge against the debasement of the dollar: Gold Isn't A Fear Trade 

Ray Dalio on How To Raise The Probability Of Being Right.  

Coronavirus: The US Was Not Prepared

The United States has not been prepared and has not acted quickly and well. The world has known about the coronavirus for over 3 months yet the United States could not even test one million last week. This is a stark contrast to China, which has brought the virus under control within 3 months and is now helping other countries, while the US cannot solve its own situation.

Ray Dalio Insights (Part I)

Ray Dalio is one of the greatest investors and thinkers of our time. Ray has been sharing some valuable insights on his twitter account and here are a few of the most interesting:

On when to bet (very applicable to traders and investors):

You can significantly improve your track record if you only make the bets that you are most confident will pay off. Knowing when not to bet is as important as knowing what bets are probably worth making.

On not listening to uninformed people:

Make sure they’re fully informed and believable. Find out who is responsible for whatever you are seeking to understand and then ask them. Listening to uninformed people is worse than having no answers at all.

How meditation may help you keep an open mind and a bigger perspective on things:

In thinking about the principles that are helping me and might help you during this challenging time, this is one of them. I practice Transcendental Meditation and believe that it has enhanced my open-mindedness, higher-level perspective, equanimity, and creativity.

These posts will be expanded over the next few days with more interesting principles and topics.

Stock Market’s Gain Under Trump Vanishes

Interesting article in the New York Times about the stock market performance during the Trump presidency. Believe or not, the american stock market is now negative since President Trump took office: Stock Market’s Gain Under Trump Vanishes

But nobody loved it like Mr. Trump. He has tweeted about the stock market at least 131 times since becoming president. He kept a running tally of stock market records — 135 by his last count, on Dec. 19. He personalized the rally, referring to “my stock market gains.”

Social Distancing

James Clear, the author of Atomic Habits gives some interesting advice on how to practice quality social distancing on social media:

"You can practice social distancing on social media too. Stay away from people who are infected with negativity, a lack of generosity, an unwillingness to seek truth, etc."

The Coronavirus Crisis Will Be Fatal

Interesting comment made by Peter Schiff on how fatal this virus induced crisis will be for all of us:

"I was against QE, ZIRP, and bailouts in 2008 because I knew that instead of allowing the economy to restructure, those mistakes would exacerbate the structural imbalances that led to the crisis. Since we didn't swallow the medicine then, the #Coronavirus crisis will be fatal now."

Corona Crisis: Many Companies Will Need Bailouts

Jim Rogers commented on the current crisis on RT.com. The legendary investor expects airlines and shipping companies to be bailed out and that we are headed toward the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes:

I told RT earlier that the next time we are going to have a financial problem it’s going to be the worst… it appears we are headed toward the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes. We will know in a few months.

"Companies with big debts are especially vulnerable at this time."

"Companies participating in international trade in particular will have serious problems. Some of them will be bankrupt. Major airlines and shipping companies will probably be bailed out because it would otherwise be embarrassing for the countries."

The Worst Financial Crisis Of Our Lifetimes

Jim said in a recent interview that due to the recent developments with the COVID-19 spreading through the Western world, we are heading to a major financial crisis. Read the complete article here: ‘We’re Headed for the Worst Financial Crisis of Our Lifetimes’ – Jim Rogers 

This Crisis Is Economic, Not Merely Financial

Peter Schiff explains that this crisis is not "merely" a financial crisis like in 2008 but an economic crisis with much bigger repercussions:

The financial crisis of 2008 was a cake walk compared to this. All that happened in 2008 was real estate prices fell, borrowers defaulted, and lenders lost money. Today global commerce is grading to a halt. Production is shutting down. This crisis is economic, not merely financial.

Everyone Will Have To Be Bailed Out

Peter Schiff says it's game over as this time around everyone will have to be bailed out:

"In 2008 we bailed out the banks and GSE's, as they owned the mortgages. Today it's not just mortgage debtors who can't pay, it's all debtors. It's not just banks that need to be bailed out, but every leveraged business in every industry. Who is left to do the bailing? Game over!"

Corona Virus: China Has Done a Great Job!

China has done a job. They were caught off guard, they were the first to face it, they were surprised. The disappointing thing to me is that the West is not ready either. We had a 3 month notice in America and yet nobody is prepared. We don’t even have testing kits for more than a million people in a country of 325 million people. China, once they got it together, they took very draconian, swift measures and seem to have it under control. I wish I could say that for Italy.

Stock Market: Panic Is Misplaced

The stock market panic is misplaced. Markets will be OK for a while because central bankers will lower interest rates and governments will keep spending widely.

The U.S. Stock Market Will Rally Back To New Highs

If you ask me today, I would say we would make new highs in the US stock market. Now I use that since it is the largest and most important stock market. I would suspect we would see new highs. We may even have a blow-off bubble. It has been a while since we have had a blow-off bubble in any stock market in the world. So it may turn into a bubble. I do expect at least new highs before the whole thing collapses. 

- in Economic Times (March 4, 2020)

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), Nasdaq 100 Futures

Interest Rates Will Go Even Lower

I expect things to be OK for a while in nearly all markets, including bond markets. These guys are going to drive interest rates to unbelievably low levels. This is not good. I want to tell you again, this is not good for the world. But it is good for the markets for a while. 

- in Economic Times (March 4, 2020)

Markets Are Going To Be OK For a While

So now the markets are going to be okay for a while. We may even turn into a huge bubble, because they are going to print a lot more and they are going to spend a lot. It means, in the end, things will be worse, but in the meantime happy days are here. 

- in Economic Times (March 4, 2020)

Market Sell-Off: What To Buy

American stocks are down 14 percent. I mean, that's a big deal but you know, China is like 60 percent from its all-time high, Japan also. No, I would probably buy airlines in Asia because they have been decimated, totally decimated! Things like airlines, tourism companies, hotel chains, airports.

The Reason Why Gold Sold Off

Everything is going down and you go back to previous bear markets, 2008 for instance, everything went down including gold. For a while gold went down a lot. Usually in bear markets people have to sell and they sell everything in sight including gold and that's when you buy gold. I'm gonna go buy this afternoon!

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), Newmont Mining (NEM)

Corona Virus: Interest Rates, Money Printing

What you have in Asia and other places is, governments are panicking and they are cutting interest rates, printing money, spending money.

The United States is probably going to do that too if they get more and more panicked. if you start seeing cases in New York or Los Angeles or places where the media is. Then they're gonna cut interest rates, they're gonna spend more money and print more money and that might lead to the last big blow off rally.

How To Navigate This Sell-Off

Jim Rogers talks with Kitco News and tells traders and investors how to navigate this major sell-off in the markets.

"Living in Asia, yes, the shops are empty, yes, the restaurants are empty because everybody's in panic but very few people are sick." - Jim Rogers


"The virus, more or less is peaking.  Certainly in China. Because they took draconian measures. They closed the whole place down which you probably couldn't do in most countries but they did it. So, it's it's in decline,  it's in decline in Asia but still the effects are going on planes or restaurants or empty hotels. There's nobody there so it's having an effect." - Jim Rogers

U.S. Debt: Who Is Buying?

As long as America has higher interest rates than other countries, investors that need to buy debt will. Those are the facts and people who are yield hungry are buying US government debt.

Virus Outbreak: Companies Will Not Leave China

Investor Jim Rogers say that companies won't be leaving China because of the corona virus outbreak. - CGTN Global Business

The Bull Case For Commodities

I own commodities because normally one of there's a lot of money printing you protect yourself by owning real assets whether it's silver or rice or whatever it happens to be because if the world economy gets better commodity should do better because of shortages if the world economy doesn't do better then they'll print more money.

This Rally Is Based On Money Printing

It's the first time in recorded history where you have all major central banks printing money at the same time. 

The Japanese said in December, "We will print unlimited amounts of money", that's their word, unlimited. The American central banks said, we can print more too. Then the English said, "Well we will print more!" and Europeans are printing more too. 

This has never happened before. Obviously there's an artificial something going on because it's all based on printed money, staggering amounts of money printing.  This is going to end very badly!