Todays Thoughts: Psychology of Money, Successful People and Wine

A few great thoughts from Twitter,

"The most successful people are not dogmatic and recognize that a better idea or new information today can be reason enough to change your approach."

-- Mark Cuban, entrepreneur

"The 10 Minute Rule: You put the red wine in the fridge 10 minutes before you open it. You take the white wine out of the fridge 10 minutes before you open it."

-- J.C. Parets, technical analyst

And a review of “The Psychology of Money” by Morgan Housel.

Be Audacious

"Be audacious. There is always a best possible path. Your job is to find it and have the courage to follow it. What you think is attainable is just a function of what you know at the moment. Once you start your pursuit you will learn a lot, especially if you triangulate with others; paths you never saw before will emerge."

 Ray Dalio, September 2020

Gold Will Go Higher

Q: Berkshire Hathaway recently made a 500 million dollar investment in Barrick Gold. Any views on that?

A: I don't own any gold shares at the moment. I prefer the real stuff. But if I'm right, if they're right, the price of gold and silver precious metals is going to go higher.

Video: Interview With Bloor Street Capital

 

Topics: 

- investing with George Soros

- incredible returns are possible, there are always plenty of opportunities

- some things are overvalued right now

- shorting asset bubbles is very difficult

Real Estate: Dramatic Changes Going On Right Now

A lot of kinds of real estate are going through dramatic changes right now. Offices, commercial real estate, shopping centers... a lot of kinds of real estate are going through dramatic changes right now.

You could go to Canada or Australia, there are many places where you can go and buy property. I wouldn't buy property in Sydney, I might buy it in the outback in Australia.

We have been doing home delivery for 10 years but now it's accelerating. Getting food delivered at home and other things delivered at home... That's one of the problems for real estate as i said before. There's not so much need for all these shopping centers and department stores anymore. so all of this is changing and it's accelerating.

Commodities Are Cheap, Bonds Are In A Bubble!

I'm looking at all asset classes in all countries and commodities seem to be the cheapest

asset class in the world right now. Certainly not government bonds. Government bonds are a bubble.

I look at assets and I see government bonds are the most overpriced in the world and agriculture is probably the cheapest in the world right now.

Marc Faber: Peak Activity Will Not Come Back For Years

 

Dr. Faber says that the economy will not recover for years. 

Marc shares his thoughts about the economic recovery and how long will it take for economies to get back to peak activity. 

Other topics:

- the effectiveness of MMT. 

- Keynesian economics.

How Will The U.S. Pay This Enormous Debt?

In previous economic hard times companies that people never thought could go bankrupt collapsed don't think it cannot happen it has happened and it will happen again. 

Six months ago the United States was the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. We never had any other country been so deep into debt. Since then the U.S. has increased its debt by trillions with a T, trillions more. 

If you give me a few trillion dollars I will show you a very, very good time. We will all have a wonderful time with a few trillion dollars but somebody eventually has to pay the price because somebody has to worry about paying it back.

I Bought More Gold Last Week

"I own gold as as you probably know. I bought more gold last week. I suspect gold and silver both will go much higher before this is over because currencies everywhere are being debased."

Gold Will Go A Lot Higher

If I’m right, gold is going to go much, much, much higher before this is over. Gold may well turn into a bubble. I hope it doesn’t, because if it turns into a bubble, I’ll have to sell it and I never want to sell it. I want my children to have my gold and silver someday.

Finding The Right Trading Style For You

I know I'm a terrible short-term trader. I don't even try it anymore. I didn't know it then but i found out...

Whether the style picks you or you picked the style. For me it was trial and error.

Nobody likes to hear it, everybody wants a hot tip. Everybody wants to be rich this month. Well the second advice is don't listen to hot tips.

Howard Marks: Life Will Go On

 

The question every investor is confronted with right now is how do you put capital at risk with any degree of confidence when the outlook is more uncertain that at any time in modern history?

Trump Will Go Tough Against China

 

"You have a lot of uncertainties... Number one is the election. Trump officially started his campaign, he was nominated, he accepted. Now, he's going to go hard on China. His popularity or the polls are indicating his his nose diving. So, he's just going to come out and look like going tough against China." - Nader Naiemi, AMP Capital

Covid 19: Politicians Have Overreacted

 

Highlights from the interview:

"Being a young person in America right now is not a good thing to be."

"In 2009 we had the H1N1 virus in America well they didn't close McDonald's (MCD) they didn't close the airports this time for whatever reason politicians seem to have overreacted."

Jim Rogers: Where I'm Investing Right Now

Anything that I'm buying and I have bought a couple of things... I'm buying one because they're so beaten down that no matter what happens I don't think they're gonna go down much more.

I'm gonna give you an example.I'm not buying Venezuela, I cannot buy Venezuela because I'm an American and it's sanctioned so Americans cannot buy assets in Venezuela. But someone who is able to buy Venezuela could probably buy Venezuela now because no matter how bad things get Venezuela is not going to go down very much and it may if any and it may start reviving.

So there are things like that. Now again, I'm not buying Venezuela, I would like to but I cannot but I'm trying to find things like that. Stocks, companies that are in that kind of situation and i have bought a couple of those recently.

Investing: Russian Bonds

I'm not here to give hot tips but one might look at Russian ruble bonds again. They do have high yields and it's not a credit risk. Russia is not going bankrupt whatever happens.

People Think Investing Is Easy. It's Not!

This is 2020 who wants to wait till next week to get rich? We want to get rich this week! We want a hot tip that's gonna make us rich very, very quickly so that we don't have to think about it and that's part of the problem. Everybody thinks this is easy.

COVID 19: Politicians Are Making Huge Mistakes

Jim Rogers comments on the money printing mistakes being done from Central Banks and governments all over the world.

Bitcoin Is Headed To Zero

Virtual currencies beyond the influence of the government will not be allowed to survive—and said the bitcoin price is headed to zero. If the cryptocurrency succeeds as real money, rather than the subject of gambling as it is today, the government will make the cryptocurrency illegal and eliminate it. 

The government likes electronic money. Because with electronic money, you can track when, where, who spent what amount. Governments will have more control over people through electronic money. The government wants to know everything. Controllable electronic money will survive, and virtual currencies beyond the influence of the government will be erased.

The Markets Will Continue Fairly Strong

I would suspect the markets will continue to be fairly strong but the US stock market just made its all-time high because there's so much money being printed and there's so much money being spent and it's gotta go somewhere. But it is going to end, I assure you.

Video Interview: Virus, Debt, Markets

Jim Rogers comments on the current market situation

• Coronavirus
• Debt situation
• Financial markets

Money Printing & Deficit Spending: It Will End Badly

There's an election in November in the United States. None of those guys care about you and me or other people or young people like my kids. They care about the election. They want to print and spend and borrow as much money as they can to win the election. 

We're all gonna pay a very difficult price afterwards. The amount of debt that has been added... America was already the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and in the last month they have added staggering amounts of debt and they continue to add more and they're printing more money.

Nowhere in the history of the world has that kind of action done good things. Maybe in the short term it does good things but nowhere in history has it done good things in the long term.

Will Markets Ever Be The Same Again?

“We could have asked the same question (will financial markets ever be the same?) after the Spanish flu, the collapse of 1929, …after the huge collapse of 2008 and 2009.

And you know what? Yes, they are always the same. Human being always get greedy. They always get scared and panic. They have not repealed the laws of fear and greed…

You can go back to an tragedy and any triumph you want to and people said the same thing: Will things be the same later? And they always were… People are always talking about the lessons of history. The main lesson of history is people don’t learn the lessons of history…”

Emerging Markets: Macro & COVID-19

In this episode of Ahead of the Curve, Real Vision guides viewers on a journey of understanding through the present and future of emerging markets.

Michael Nicoletos, co-founder and CIO of AppleTree Capital, speaks with Jim Rogers, chairman of Beeland Interests and famous emerging markets investor in Singapore. They talk about the next move for the dollar, which emerging markets he is currently investing in, and why he looks for disaster when he is deploying capital.

Then, Real Vision’s own Roger Hirst speaks with Mark Mobius, partner at Mobius Capital Partners, in Germany. Mobius breaks down the importance of technology, travel, and other macroeconomic factors that impact emerging markets. He explains why he believes the recovery could be as fast as the meltdown.

Nicoletos then speaks to Dr. Simon Ogus, founder and CEO of DSG Asia Limited. Dr. Ogus talks about the impact of COVID-19 on emerging markets through his view from Hong Kong. He relates the Asia-specific perspective on the impact of the virus on currencies, growing alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, and the future of globalism. Filmed May 11-15, 2020.

Pandemic: The US Has Done The Worst Job

Sweden did nothing, some US states did nothing and they say they're going to come out ahead. We know that the United States has the highest number of deaths, the highest number of cases reported if you can believe anybody.  I'm always skeptical of believing the numbers the US has done the worst job or the least good job of handling the whole thing.

Markets: Commodities, COVID-19

Latest video market update from Jim Rogers on commodities, financial markets and the COVID-19 pandemic. How markets will evolve from here and who will be the winners and the losers.

Investing: Silver Is Cheaper Than Gold

If you look at the ratio of silver and gold, it is highest it has ever been in recorded history. Never in history has silver been this cheap compared with gold. Maybe there are reasons but there are always reasons when something like this happens. I want to own precious metals. And certainly, in the next five years, I would prefer to own gold or silver. But if I had the option, I would own silver just because it is cheaper. I own both. I bought more gold recently but I would rather prefer to buy silver today than either of the two you mentioned.

Investing: Where To Look

Agriculture is still a disaster. Agriculture's probably got great opportunities. Gold and Silver, some parts of the world that have been smashed like transportation, airlines, tourism anything to do with travel has been killed. I'm also looking into a shipping company in Russia.

The Worst Problem Of My Lifetime

In 2008, the world had a problem because of too much debt. Since then, the debt has skyrocketed everywhere. Even in India and China, everywhere. Ten years ago China had no debt now it has a lot of debt. And next time we have a problem...that we are having now. It will be the worst in my lifetime.

Investing: Silver, India

Investing: Healthcare Over The Internet

I would suggest you find something that has very good growth prospects. I mentioned to you, healthcare over the internet for instance. Now I do not have any names, but that is going to be a great way to make money in the future if you can find he companies that are going to do. Especially in India, it is going to have a great future.

Nations Must Save, Invest & Work Hard

Any economy which saves and invests and works hard always wins out in the future over countries which consume, borrow and spend.

Putting South Korea On The Watchlist

If Kim Jong Un has passed, nothing has been confirmed to my knowledge, I’ll be putting South Korea on my watch list. Unification of North/South could have more upside than East/West Germany.

Related tickers: iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY)

Investing: The Best Advice I Ever Got

The best advice I ever got was on a airplane. It was in my early days on Wall Street. I was flying to Chicago, and I sat next to an older guy. Anyway, I remember him as being an old guy, which means he may have been forty. He told me to read everything. If you get interested in a company and you read the annual report, he said, you will have done more than ninety eight percent of the people on Wall Street. And if you read the footnotes in the annual report you will have done more than one hundred percent of the people on Wall Street.

I realized right away that if I just literally read a company’s annual report and the notes  - or better yet, two or three years of reports - that I would know much more than others. Professional investors used to sort of be dazzled. Everyone seemed to think I was smart. I later realized that I had to do more than just that. I learned that I had to read the annual reports of those I am investing in and their competitors annual reports, the trade journals, and everything that I could get my hand on. But I realized that most people do not bother even doing the basic homework. And if I did even more, I would be so far ahead that I would probably be able to find successful investments.

Lower Crude Oil Prices Are Good For The World

Pricing power shifts from commodity producer to commodity consumers. We are looking at a new order in the world where the total wealth effect will shift away let's say from oil-producing nations like Russia or Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Nigeria and Venezuela to consuming nations like India and China.

This is good for China it's good for India, good for Germany, good for Japan. It's good for oil consumers and it's good for oil consuming nations. Oil producers or suffering now and many other companies in those countries as well. But for the world yes, it's good.

Crude Oil Will Not Stay At Zero

You're already seeing bankruptcies, some shale producers in the United States have declared bankruptcy and some drilling companies, so it's happening.

What happened last night was an aberration (crude going negative in price). I don't think you'll see another one like that. You know, the June contract is over 20 in Europe oil is over 20. So, I don't think that crude oil is gonna stay at zero. It was only one night for one special reason.