Younger Investors Tend To Do Great In Bull Markets

When things are going right,  in a great bull market, especially in a bubble there is nothing better than a 26 year old investor. They are fearless and they will tell you why it will never end. But, when they end you do not want that 26 year old around.

Howard Marks: Mastering The Market Cycle

A very interesting interview with Howard Marks (Oaktree Capital co-founder) shares his insights on the forces shaping the market cycle.

Chinese Stocks, Online Brokerage IPO & 6 Investing Insights

Jim Rogers was mentioned in the press several occasions this week. Here's a snapshot of the most interesting articles:

Jim Rogers Exits US Markets, Buys Chinese Stocks (in Yicai Global)

Jim Rogers-Backed China Online Brokerage Is Said to Plan IPO (in Bloomberg) 

6 investing insights from Jim Rogers (in Morningstar India)

Have great trading day!

Nassim Taleb: World Is More Fragile Today Than in 2007

Nasim Taleb considers the world to be more fragile today than in 2007. Where is the vulnerability? Nassim answers.

General Electric (GE) Is Less Valuable When It Can't Pay A Dividend 
This Rally Is A Correction In A Bear Market 
The Biggest Decline In A Month For The Nasdaq Since 2008

Tiger Brokers Is Planning a U.S. IPO

Tiger Brokers, the Chinese online brokerage is planning a U.S. initial public offering that could raise about $200 million according to Bloomberg News:

Latest Jim Rogers-Backed China Online Brokerage Is Said to Plan IPO

Trade War: Trump Thinks He Is Smarter Than History

"He (President Trump) thinks he he himself is smarter than history and who cares about history history is bunk and I can beat history I know he cannot you I guess you know we cannot history shows he cannot but he thinks he can and that's the dangerous kind of people."

Markets: The Central Bank Will Do Something

The central bank is gonna do something, cut interest rates, buy assets, who knows what they will do and the market will have a rally. The market will rally because people will say "Ah, they've come in they're saving us again". But after that, that's when the real horrible part of the bear market is going to come. So, be worried!

Nasdaq: Worst Monthly Decline Since The Financial Crisis
Stock Market: The Downtrend Is Intact

Gold Will Dip Below 1,000

That's my view but I've made a lot of mistakes in my life. So, don't rely on me for your market timing, I'm the worst short-term trader in the world. But I expect gold to go under 1,000 dollars/ounce and if it does, I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot more. If it doesn't, I've got plenty of gold already.

The Appeal Of Socialism

Not many people in the world want to be socialist anymore because socialism has failed, communism has failed. Certainly nobody wants to be a communist and if they want to be a socialist, they want to be a rich socialist.

There are people, it's often inexperienced younger people who don't know the history of socialism and how it has never worked -  it's a good story communism, the problem is it's the story that doesn't work. No communist nation or a communist country has ever succeeded. They always fail but it's hard to explain that to somebody who's 23 years old and who's never seen much of the world.

Other interesting articles and market updates:

Stock Market: The Downtrend Is Intact
The Box That The Federal Reserve Has Placed Itself In

Everybody Should Have Some Gold In Their Portfolio

I own gold at the moment and I have for many years. I have not bought serious gold in a long time and I'm not buying it now. But if and when it goes down, I expect if it goes under one 1,000 USD per ounce, I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot more gold.

Everybody should have some gold in their portfolio as an insurance company of nothing else.

Stock Market: It's Not Going To End Well

Many of the stock markets in the world are not doing nearly as well as U.S. stocks because they don't have this gigantic fiscal boost that we have from Washington. It's not going to end well, you know, someday we're gonna have to pay the price for it.

Investing: Recognize Change And React Accordingly

"Those who can not adjust to change will be swept aside by it. Those who recognize change and react accordingly will benefit." 
— Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc.

Agriculture Is Going To Be The Big Thing

“Agriculture is going to be the big thing in the next 20 years.” 
— Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, Inc.

Interest Rates Are Going Much Higher

Nearly everybody in the market only knows interest rates going down. That's going to change because interest rates are going to go much, much higher not just in the United States but all over the world.

This has never happened in recorded history, what we've seen. Interest rates in many countries became negative. This has never, ever happened before.

This May Be The Beginning Of A Big Bear Market

I know we're all very worried when the market goes down 6 or 7 percent but even 6 or 7 percent is meaningless in the big scheme of things. Now, having said that it may be the end, the end may be finally here. 

It's been 10 years since we had a serious bear market in the United States. That's the longest in in recorded history so we may be ready. This may be the beginning of a big bear market. 

The way bear markets work is they start where nobody's looking. In 2007, Iceland went bankrupt and nobody cared. Ireland went bankrupt and then Northern Rock went bankrupt and Bear Stearns went bankrupt and by then some people started to see that something's going on. By the time Lehman Brothers went bankrupt everybody knew it was in the front page of the papers and the evening news and we all knew a year and a half or so later that there was a serious bear market in the works. That's the way things work.

Now we have had things like that happening in the last year or so: Turkey, Venezuela, Argentina, Indonesia, Indian banks, Latvia... You know, the things that no he cares about or pays attention to and they're all very small but it may be the snowball gathering speed and this may be it.

Is The Fed Going ‘Loco’?

The truth is the Federal Reserve did go crazy a few years ago and drove interests rate down to zero which had never happened in history. Now, they are trying to get sanity back and raise them to the proper level.

Global Markets: Investment Opportunities

The Chinese market is down 60% from its all-time highs, the Japanese market is down 50% from its all-time highs. Russia is hated, Zimbabwe has just thrown out a absolutely absurd dictator who ruined the country for 40 years. There are great opportunities there. I've recently invested in a little bit not much in Ghana. Ghana was ruined but Ghana is changing dramatically. They have really smart, knowledgeable people running Ghana now.

The Beginning Of The End?

Read the latest commentary from Jim Rogers on the latest market sell-off and its implications going forward:

Beginning of the end? US equities sell-off wave affecting global economy - Jim Rogers

Stock Market: Updates from Peter Schiff

Read the latest stock market updates from Peter Schiff: Stocks: A True Bear Market and Markets: Stocks & Bonds

U.S. Stocks Are Weighting Too Much

U.S. stocks are so dominant among developed markets that their position has become “unsustainable,” according to Luca Paolini, Pictet Asset Management Ltd.’s chief strategist. 

Paolini made the argument Wednesday in a Twitter post that showed the country’s weight within the MSCI World Index, representing 23 countries. The U.S. share rose to a record 62.5 percent last month and closed just below that peak Wednesday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Overblown” earnings estimates are among reasons why the percentage is poised to fall, he wrote.

Source: David Wilson, Bloomberg

Ray Dalio: The “War” with China Is Spreading

A fantastic diagram from Ray Dalio of where we currently stand:

"Because geopolitics is playing a greater role in driving economies and markets than any time in my over 50 years of investing, I am thinking a lot more about it." - Ray Dalio

Stock Market Update

Read the latest stock market updates from Peter Schiff: It's Not A Normal Bull Market Correction and My Feeling About The Stock Market Was Confirmed

Investing: Korea Is Going To Be The Most Exciting Country In The World

Korea is going to be the most exciting country in the world for 10 or 20 years once North Korea is open and they unite. It's going to be very exciting for many reasons.

You know as recently as 1970 North Korea was richer than South Korea. Communism ruins everything and so it ruined North Korea which means that North Korea is extremely cheap with lots of educated, disciplined and cheap labor plus lots of natural resources, standing right on the Chinese border. Combine that with lots of capital in the south, lots of know-how in the south. iIt's going to be very exciting. The Japanese are against it because Japan knows they cannot compete with an open Korea and they're doing.

Podcast: Jim Rogers On Follow The Money Radio

Latest podcast with Jerry Robinson (Follow the Money Radio)
October 2018

Topics discussed:

Jim Rogers views on the US Economy, the trade war with China and business in general.

There's No Such Thing As Winning A Trade War

There's no such thing as winning a trade war. Do you see what's happening with NAFTA right now? Mr. Trump is shouting from the rooftops that he's won but you look at the results it means that the price of cars are gonna go up a lot for American citizens. I'm not sure how that's good for America. Maybe it's good for a few automobile workers but it's not good for most Americans.

The Problems With The US Economy

Someone has to cut spending with a with an axe, not not with an axe with a chainsaw! Someone has to cut taxes, we have a gigantic litigation problem in the US... 

We spend two or three or four times as much on health care as any other nation in the world and yet we're not even in the top 25 for life expectancy. We spend huge amounts of money on education and yet we are even in the top 25 for education results... 

I mean I could go on and on and on. One of the reasons we have this huge balance of trade deficit is because the high cost of health care and litigation. It cuts our competitiveness a great deal.

Stock Market: Underneath There Are Problems Developing

Staggering amounts of debt are being created even more than in the past and who would have thought it possible that we could build up even more debt than before but we are. And it's going into markets but as you probably know not all stocks are going up.

In fact, a great number of stocks are going down and other countries in the world are not participating like we are in the US stock market. So, underneath there are more problems developing.

Peter Schiff: The Carnage on Wall Street Has Already Begun

October is just one week old and the carnage on Wall Street has already begun I wonder if the October complacency is starting to be shaken a bit with the down move that we see. The catalyst is rising interest rates which of course the markets have been ignoring.

Habits, Compound Interest & Self-Improvement

A great quote,

"Habits are the compound interest of self improvement." 

- James Clear, Author of Atomic Habits

Mark Minervini: How To Spot The End Of A Bear Market

"Once the masses accept every pullback as simply another buying opportunity and ignore the risk in stocks, the end of a bull market is near. This was the case during virtually every strong bull market in history."

- Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in the Stock Market Wizards book (October 3rd, 2018)

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Russell 2000 Index ETF (IWM)

Peter Schiff: How Crude Oil Can Make New All-TIme Highs

I believe that if we see a real bear market in the US Dollar in 2019-2020, by the time the 2020 election comes around oil prices could have taken out the high price that they hit back in 2008 which was around 140-150 dollars a barrel.

Peter Schiff: Weak Stocks Beneath The Surface

If you look at some of the sectors that continue to get beat up making new 52 week lows so even though the headlines are probably gonna be about the Dow Jones Industrials Average (DJIA) making another all-time record high, beneath the surface are a lot of stocks that are having a lot of problems.

Asia Is More Efficient

If you landed at JFK airport, you landed at a third world Airport and you enter into a third world taxi on a third world highway into a third world 5-star Hotel. You go to Singapore and you're out of the airport in 12 minutes. I didn't say out of the plane, you're out of the airport. Same thing now in the new Hong Kong Airport. For whatever reason they're efficient they're modern they work.

The US dollar Is Going To Get Overpriced

I own a lot of US dollars right now, a lot of US dollars! Because what happens  when the there's a crisis or turmoil people look for a safe haven. Yes, they think the US dollar is the safe haven so the US dollar is going to get overpriced it could even turn into a bubble depending on how bad the turmoil is at which point I'll sell my US Dollars and put it into something else.

The Gold Standard Has Never Worked

The gold standard has never worked it's worked for short periods of time but what happens is and you go back into history you see that the goals that God what reason it never works is because it's a great discipline you have to do you have to run a sound economy and politicians don't like sound discipline so what happens is they always change it.

Central Banks Will Ruin Us All

They actually think they're doing the right thing. In their off moments when they are not being recorded they will admit "Oh gosh, it's an experiment, we have no idea if this is good" but the reason is because they messed up so many places so many times they don't know what they're doing and in the end they're gonna ruin us all. They this is more or less their last experiment, their last gasp, because when this ends it's gonna be very very bad.

When The Bull Market Ends, It Will End Badly

US stocks are at a ten-year high and we had have no bear markets. That the longest bull market in the history of the world. Maybe it's gonna go for 20 years, I don't know. I'm not smart enough but I know when it ends it's going to end very badly.

U.S. Economy: Trade Wars, Lack Of Competitiveness

Trade wars have never worked for anybody, they've always led to problems for everybody so it doesn't matter if he's right if he's gonna ruin us all. Yes, maybe we have problems but the problems are not because the Asians are evil. We have a horrible education system, we have a horrible litigation system. We spend more on medicine than anybody in the world by several factors but our life expectancy is not even the top 25. We have more basic problems than a bunch of evil Asians.

Markets: Washington Is The Big Risk Right Now

Washington DC's the greatest risk. The central bank  (the Federal Reserve) has no clue what it's doing and the others are following it. The government has no clue what it's doing... Trade wars. Do you think trade wars are good for anybody? History shows they're not so. Washington is the big risk right now.

If You Want To Get Rich You Don't Diversify

If you want to get rich you don't diversify. You put all your eggs in one basket and then you watch the basket very carefully. You got to make sure it's the right basket or you will go bankrupt but that's how you get rich. Henry Ford never diversified, Bill Gates never diversified.

The US Dollar Is Going To Lose Its Position As The World’s Reserve Currency

In the next few years, the American dollar is going to lose its position as the world’s reserve currency and the world’s medium of exchange.

Podcast: Emerging Markets & Geopolitics

Listen to the latest Jim Rogers podcast here:

EP36: JIM ROGERS – LEGENDARY INVESTOR SHARES HIS OPINIONS ON NORTH KOREA, CHINA, MANDARIN AND THE CURRENT STATE OF EDUCATION

Jim talked about the prospects of a new bear market in stocks, what North Korea will look like in 20 years and also what can we expect from China going forward. Another topics included the current state of asian education and some of Jim’s secrets to successful investing.

Commodities: "Get Yourself Some Sugar"

Jim Rogers was recently interviewed by Daily Wealth's Steve Sjuggerud and they talked commodities. You can read the interview here: Jim Rogers' Favorite Commodity Now

Technology Stocks Are Overpriced

The Chinese technology stocks skyrocketed. Now they're having a reaction. They should have a reaction. Even American technology have reactions. They've got very, very overpriced. I wouldn't buy them, I would never buy them but I certainly wouldn't buy them now even in the reactions.

Markets: The More Hated, The Better

The more hated the market, the better. NYSE stocks are making all-time highs. That does not excite me, making all-time lows is more exciting.