U.S. Stock Market: It's Not A Full-Fledged Bubble Yet

Many stocks in the United States are down in 2020. There are a few stocks that are going through the roof every day. Some parts of the U.S. stock market are developing the beginning of a bubble but many parts of the market are not and that's why I would suspect this is going to go on for a while because it's not a full-fledged bubble yet. It's beginning to be in some stocks.

Money Printing Is Going Into The Markets

The United States central bank has been printing gigantic amounts of money and the central government has been spending huge amounts of money. So all this money's got to go somewhere it's going into the markets.

Video: U.S. Stock Market Outlook

 Jim Rogers gives his outlook on the U.S. stock market. 

"Maybe we'll have a pullback but if so then Washington DC is going to panic and do everything they can to get the markets up again but that's true in several other countries around the world."

Bonds Are Risky, Commodities Are Cheap.

Bonds have never been this high in the recorded history of the world, so that's a problem. The cheapest asset class is commodities. Silver is down fifty percent from its all-time high while sugar is down eighty percent from its all-time high. Agriculture is a disaster. I'm buying more agriculture as we speak.

Japanese Market May Go Back To Its All-Time High

I wouldn't be surprised if the Japanese market - and this isn't a prediction - went back to its all-time high during this period. We can have a wonderful time while the guy at the Bank of Japan, Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, is printing and buying, printing and buying.

Related trading instruments: Nikkei 225, TOPIX

Weekend Thoughts: Diversification, Trading Discipline, Goals

Some interesting thoughts and quotes from this weekend on twitter:

"To be calm is the highest achievement of the self.” 

-- Zen Proverb

"Diversification is a hedge against a lack of knowledge."
-- Naval Ravikant

"If you are lonely when you're alone, you are in bad company."
-- Jean Paul Sartre

Trading related, this thought from Mark Minervini on discipline is very interesting:

"There's a very simple test to see if you are disciplined and actually have a strategy. After you make a trade, especially when at a loss, do you find yourself hoping?"

Paul Graham predicts that tech companies will keep on winning: 

"Prediction: Remote work will become so fashionable that even companies that don't get it will try to embrace it, leading to a bimodal distribution of outcomes. This bimodal distribution will be the same we've seen over and over already: tech cos will win."

Finally here's a link to Ray Dalio's piece on  How To Focus On A Goal. 

Time Is Money

"To compound your capital rapidly, you want to be where the action is. You can’t afford to tie up your capital waiting for the rest of the world to agree with you; time is money. The goal is not to buy at the cheapest price but to sell your stock for more than the price you paid."

--Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in The Stock Market Wizards