The Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) sustained a year-over-year decline of 7.6%, marking 16 consecutive months in negative territory. This downturn, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis, excluding the COVID lockdown-induced collapse, is a significant cause for concern. The trajectory of the U.S. LEI persistently signals an impending recession over the next 12 months, highlighting ongoing economic challenges and drawing parallels to the turbulent period surrounding the Lehman collapse in 2008.
Monday, November 20, 2023
Nvidia's Surge Amid AI Drama and Thanksgiving Pause
AI market darling Nvidia headlines Tuesday's quarterly reports, alongside Lowe's, John Deere, Best Buy, and Zoom. The spotlight is also on OpenAI's drama surrounding Sam Altman's departure and potential return, impacting the market rally fueled by the AI boom and Microsoft's investment. The economic calendar features the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey and manufacturing data, with markets closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. Last week's rally, driven by lower-than-expected October inflation, saw gains across all major indexes, with the Nasdaq up 10%, S&P 500 up nearly 8%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average up almost 6% since November began.
Saturday, November 18, 2023
Year-End Stock Market Surge: The Perfect Storm for Massive Gains!
Investors are optimistic about a year-end stock market rally, and Jay Pelosky of TPW Advisory sees all the elements for a strong performance in 2023. Positive seasonal trends in November and December, a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment, and high short positions in hedge funds contribute to the bullish outlook.
Commodity trading advisors (CTAs) shorting stocks may also lead to a bullish turn, with an estimated $150 billion expected to be bought back by year-end. October saw retail investors selling the most stock in two years, suggesting a potential increase in purchases.
Technical indicators, including the "Zweig Breadth Thrust," recapturing 200-day moving averages, and a bullish "golden cross" signal in the Dow Jones, further support a positive market sentiment. Pelosky anticipates a classic year-end rally, with hedge funds covering shorts, going long, joined by CTAs, active managers, and retail investors, aligning with the current market setup.
Boost Your Trading Success with This Simple Hack!
Today, let's talk about a simple yet crucial thing in trading psychology—taking breaks. In trading psychology, one big idea is that the challenges we face as traders depend a lot on our current state. Sometimes, we're focused and make good decisions; other times, we might react poorly due to stress. This is where mindfulness comes in handy for successful trading.
So, the main idea is to be aware of our state to change it. Mindfulness helps us focus on ourselves. When we're deep into trading, we're really into it, but too much self-focus is not great. Taking breaks during trading isn't just about reacting when things go wrong; it's also about checking in on ourselves regularly. We want to make sure we're in the right mental and physical shape for good trading.
In simple terms, set a random alarm. When it goes off, it's a sign to take a step back from trading when it's convenient. Ask yourself if you're in the right mindset for good trading. Take a break away from the screens, shake off stress, and refresh your awareness. When you come back to trading, you're not just back with a clear mind but also with a new perspective.
Wall Street Traders Bearish on Yen, Highest Since April 2022
Traders on Wall Street are intensifying their pessimistic outlook on the Japanese yen, suggesting concerns about the prolonged depreciation of Japan's currency throughout the year. In the week concluding on Nov. 14, leveraged funds significantly increased their net-short exposure in the yen, reaching 65,490 contracts. This level marks the highest since April 2022, as revealed by data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Steenbarger's Trading Psychology Insights
Dr. Brett Steenbarger is a psychologist and trading coach known for his work in the field of trading psychology. Here are some summarized ideas from his work:
- Performance Psychology: Focus on the mental aspects of trading, including discipline, emotional control, and self-awareness.
- Mindfulness in Trading: Encourage traders to be present in the moment, fostering mindfulness to make more informed and less impulsive decisions.
- Process Over Outcome: Emphasize the importance of following a well-defined trading process rather than fixating solely on the outcome of individual trades.
- Continuous Learning: Advocate for ongoing education and learning to adapt to changing market conditions.
- Trader Development:View trading as a skill that can be developed over time through deliberate practice and self-reflection.
- Adaptability: Stress the need for traders to be adaptable, adjusting strategies and approaches based on evolving market dynamics.
- Goal Setting: Encourage traders to set clear and achievable goals, both short-term and long-term, to guide their actions and progress.
- Risk Management:Highlight the importance of effective risk management strategies to protect capital and sustain long-term success.
- Emotional Intelligence:Develop emotional intelligence to better understand and manage emotions in the context of trading.
- Feedback and Reflection:Promote regular feedback and self-reflection to identify strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement.
Steenbarger's ideas focus on the intersection of psychology and trading, providing practical insights for traders to enhance their performance and well-being in the markets. His books, including "The Daily Trading Coach" and "Enhancing Trader Performance," delve deeper into these concepts.
Short-Term Trading Essentials
If you're interested in short-term technical trading, here are some well-regarded books that focus on this aspect of trading:
- "Mastering the Trade" by John F. Carter:
Offers insights into short-term trading strategies, including day trading and swing trading.
- "The New Trading for a Living" by Dr. Alexander Elder:
Updated edition covering various aspects of trading, including short-term strategies and psychology.
- "The Little Book That Still Beats the Market" by Joel Greenblatt:
Presents a simple yet powerful strategy for short-term investing.
- "The Market Whisperer" by Meir Barak:
Written by a professional day trader, this book provides insights into day trading strategies.
- "The Art and Science of Technical Analysis" by Adam Grimes:
Focuses on the scientific aspects of technical analysis and its application to short-term trading.
- "Short-Term Trading Bible" by David S. Nassar:
Offers practical advice on short-term trading techniques, chart patterns, and risk management.
Remember to consider your own trading goals, risk tolerance, and preferences when choosing books to ensure they align with your trading style.
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