Friday, November 29, 2019

Why The American Economy Has Held Up So Well

So far the American economy has held up well because of a lot of money printing, a lot of government spending, cut taxes, everything possible to hold up the American economy. 

When things get bad in America as they will, Mr. Trump is not going to say, "It's my fault. I got it wrong." Donald Trump is going to say those evil Germans, those Koreans, those Canadians, and he's going to come back hard with more and more whatever you want to call it. The situation, we're going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime.

Wednesday, November 27, 2019

Gold: I Started Buying More This Summer

I started buying more gold this summer, because I could see what was happening. I still own plenty of gold and silver. I guess the fact that it doesn't yield much or anything doesn't bother anyone now. Bonds don't yield anything either. Most things don't yield anything these days.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Currencies: Singapore Dollar (SGD) Will Go Down Against The U.S. Dollar (USD)

The Singapore dollar (SGD), like all currencies, is going to go down against the US dollar (USD), because the US dollar (USD) is going to go much higher. 

Singapore doesn't like to talk about its debt but Singapore has debt, too. The IMF says that the Singapore debt is over 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There is serious debt here. 

Now Singapore would say yeah, but we got a lot of asset, too. They do. There's no question about that. Once interest rates start going higher, normally, your debts get worse and your assets don't get better so the Singapore dollar (SGD) is going to suffer too, but it's mainly because the US dollar (USD) is going to be so strong when people start looking for a safe haven.

Friday, November 22, 2019

Real Vision: China and Global Investment



Jim Rogers has been fascinated by China since he drove his motorcycle across the country in the 1980s.

The investing legend joins Real Vision to give his view of the rising Asian superpower and, more broadly, on rising Asia in general.

Rogers provides his views on the Hong Kong crisis and the simmering trade war. He also weighs in on whether the era of US dollar primacy has passed — especially now that the United States has become, in Rogers’ view, “the largest debtor nation in the history of the world.”

$17 Trillion In Negative Yielding Debt

$17 trillion now of negative yielding debt. It never happened in world history. It's absurd. 

It's a bunch of misguided bureaucrats and academics who don't know what they're doing. They're hoping. This has never happened in world history. Never in world history has this happened and it's going to be a gigantic disaster for all of us. 

How does it end? Badly. Bankruptcies. There are many states and cities, not just in America, Germany's got cities that are in trouble. Forget, we haven't even talked about Spain yet or Italy or some of the other places. No, many places are going to have serious problems. 

 Once interest rates go back to normal, it's going to cause a lot of, lot of bankruptcies and problems around the world.

Thursday, November 21, 2019

China Is Letting The Currency Go Down

Any country, which has hundreds of billions of dollars of sanctions or tariffs imposed on it, the currency is going to go down, period, full stop. It's not just the Chinese, the Chinese are apparently letting it go down and not trying to control it. Anybody who has that ax chopped on it is going to be affected, because it theoretically is going to hurt your trade balance of trade very seriously when you have those tariffs imposed. 

Maybe China's saying, "Okay, we'll let it go, we're not going to stop it." To try to stop a currency declining when you've had hundreds of billions of dollars of tariffs hitting you, you have to be affected. To try to stop that decline would cost gigantic amounts of money.

The Future Of Hong Kong Is Continued Decline

I think the future of Hong Kong is continued decline. 

The only reason Hong Kong became Hong Kong was because of 1949, in Mao Zi time. Now, you don't need Hong Kong anymore. Shanghai was the largest financial center between New York and London before the before the war, Second World War.

China's opening up so we don't need Hong Kong anymore. It's going to continue to decline. When the Renminbi, the Chinese currency, is convertible, yes, I would expect the Hong Kong dollar to disappear.

Related tickers:  iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index ETF (EWH)

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