Inflation: Will It Really Pick Up?

 

History would indicate it will because whenever governments have printed and borrowed gigantic amounts of money it has always led to inflation.

Maybe something's different this time but you and I both know it's very dangerous to say it's different this time.

Japan Has Got A Terrible Future

Japan has got a terrible future. I have written three bestsellers on Japan in the last couple of years, talking about the disaster ahead of it. But if the central bank is going to print all this money and buying exchange-traded funds, I am doing it too. But no, it does not have a good future.

Bitcoin, Gold, Digital Money

 

"I have never bought or sold any crypto."

Latest video interview with Stansberry Research. Topics:

- Bitcoin

- Tesla, Apple, Netflix and Bitcoin

- Is Bitcoin suited for wealth preservation?

- Is Bitcoin money?

- Governments may regulate, restrict Bitcoin

Asset Bubbles Are Beginning To Develop

Bubbles are beginning to develop. We do not have full-fledged bubbles yet except in bonds, bonds everywhere are a full-fledged bubble. At the moment, if I will buy countries I would buy Japan, I would buy Russia; both are still down dramatically but lots of money is going to pour into both of them because they are cheap and likewise agriculture.

Stock Market: Bubbles Are Developing

The U.S. stock market is at all time highs and bubbles are developing. Amazon goes up every day, Tencent goes up every day. Samsung goes up, every day. There are some bubbles developing in shares in many markets, not everywhere. There are many stocks in America that are not up but bubbles are developing. 

I have seen this movie before. Lots of new people coming into the market, everyboy says it is so easy to make money buying shares, they tell their friends... I have seen all of this. This is not the first time I have been to this movie.  

So, bubbles are developing in financial markets and when it breaks, like every other bubble is going to hurt very badly.

Money Is Being Flooded Into The World

There's gigantic amounts of money being flooded into the world by central banks and governments. Therefore markets are happy right now. 

This is all going to end very badly when it ends but at the moment it's great. 

If you give me trillions of dollars we will have a very good time I promise you. But of course I don't know how long the good time will last but while it lasts we're going to be really, really happy.

Gold: Weak Hands Being Shaken Out

Peter Schiff's update on the precious metals markets: 

"Gold is getting hammered. It's down $40 per ounce, trading back below $1,800. Silver is down $75 cents per ounce, back below $26. Despite extremely bullish fundamentals and news the big guys are determined to teach the little guys a lesson by shaking them out of the market." 

Gigantic Debts Are Being Built

 Right now, most politicians including in the United States say, no we should not be concerned about the budget deficit, we must be more concerned about taking care of people who are not working or companies that need help. 

That is a good argument but the debt that is being built up is going to be staggering. It is not good to be a young person now because young people are going to have a huge debt to pay off. If I were in charge I would not go spend this gigantic debt. 

Emerging Markets: Always Excited About India

I’m always excited about India.

I’m very excited to see that India is opening up agriculture.

India has needed that for decades.

Bitcoin: Ray Dalio & Elon Musk

Interesting take from Peter Schiff on Bitcoin, Ray Dalio and Elon Musk,

"If Elon Musk or Ray Dalio intended to buy Bitcoin they would not announce it to the world in advance. They clearly know the effect such an announcement would have on price. So either they already bought all the Bitcoin they want to own, or they are unlikely to actually buy any."

--Peter Schiff

Jim's First Trades

 

Jim Rogers tries to remember his first trade and describes his early experiences on Wall Street. 

Currencies: Turmoil Will Benefit The US Dollar

 

I own a lot of US Dollars at the moment. 

The United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and it's getting worse every day so you probably should say well, why do you own US Dollars? 

I own them because we're going to have more problems, turmoil in the world later this year or next year. 

During times like that people always look for a safe haven. They think the US Dollar is a safe haven. It's not but they think it is for historic reasons.

So, the US Dollar will go much higher and it might even turn into a bubble. It'll certainly get overpriced at which point i'll have to sell my dollars.

Latest Interview With The Economic Times

Recent interview with the Economic Times:

Jim Rogers’ tip for new investors: Don't let hot tips ruin you

Topics:

- Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin regulation
- India agriculture
- Russia, China
- Stock market outlook

India Should Be A Great Agricultural Nation Again

India should be, could be and will be a great agricultural nation again if the government gets out of the way and leaves those smart farmers to do it.

It's very dangerous when the government says it is coming to help you. When the government comes to help you, leave home, go away.

Bitcoin: A Perspective (from Peter Schiff)

 Recent Peter Schiff's commentary on Bitcoin,

"Losing the private key to your Bitcoin wallet is not the same thing as forgetting where you buried your gold. When gold is lost the world loses something -- the potential use of that gold as a metal. When Bitcoin is lost the world loses nothing. Gold is wealth. Bitcoin is not."

"The fact that an ounce of #gold can be divided into grams does not make it any less scarce. That's because its the weight of gold that's scarce relative to the demand to use it as a metal. Bitcoin weighs nothing and is used for nothing. So, dividing Bitcoin reduces its scarcity."

"The reason a one-ounce gold coin is twice as valuable as a half-ounce gold coin is that you can make twice as much jewelry with an ounce of gold as you can with a half ounce. Since you can't make anything out of a Bitcoin, a full Bitcoin has no more value than half a Bitcoin."

Investing: Bear Markets, Apple, Tencent

 Here are the links for the latest media appearances:

• Jim Rogers’ tip for new investors: Don't let hot tips ruin you
• ‘If I had Apple and Tencent, I would have sold them by now,’ says Jim Rogers
• Jim Rogers predicts the next bear market will be the worst in over 70 years

Have a great trading day!

Bitcoin Looks Like A Bubble

Many cryptocurrencies have disappeared and gone to zero.

We all watch Bitcoin but there are many others that have disappeared completely. 

I do not know who is buying Bitcoin. It looks to me like a bubble. I have seen many bubbles in my life.

Every Dollar A Young Man Saves

"I came into the market with $600 in 1968 and left in 1980 with millions. I was convinced, and still am, that every dollar a young man saves, properly invested, will return him 20 over the course of his life." 

-- Jim Rogers

Gold & Silver Will Eventually Go Much Higher!

I'm waiting for the correction. 

I don't know how long that correction will last, a month or a year. 

I will buy more silver, because it is down 50 per cent from highs, gold is down 10 per cent or something. 

I will buy a lot of silver and gold sometime later, because their prices would eventually go much higher.

Investing: Do Not Listen To Hot Tips

One should only invest in what s/he knows about.

Do not listen to hot tips, or me.

Everybody wants hot tips.

Those would bankrupt you, ruin you.

The way to be successful as an investor is to do nothing until you yourself know it is going to work and is backed by your own research.

Do Not Doubt Yourself

"I remember when I first started trading in 83 with a few grand saved and not a clue what I was doing. I don't know how, but I never doubted I would be successful. And you shouldn't doubt yourself. Why? Because every person can do much more than they think they can. My guarantee."

-- Mark Minervini, Momentum stocks trader profiled in Market Wizards Series

Vaccination Will Take A While

People think that the vaccine is going to calm things down and make economies restore themselves. It may well happen but it's certainly going to take a while. It's going to take a long time for people to get the vaccine.

I live in Singapore, a country with five and a half million people and it's going to be at least two quarters, maybe three before everybody gets it here and we're a small place. So, it's going to take a while.

Setting Goals

"If you limit your goals to what you know you can achieve, you are setting the bar way too low. Remember that great expectations create great capabilities."

-- Ray Dalio, hedge fund manager

Latest Market Commentary: January 20th 2021

 Currencies /Forex: Euro can't be a reserve currency for the world instead of the US dollar. Chinese renminbi could be one in the future

Stock Market: This bubble is not complete yet. When it becomes a full bubble, it will pop and a lot of people will lose lot of money

Cryptocurrencies: Never bought any cryptocurrency; many cryptocurrencies have disappeared and gone to zero in value. If government outlaws crypto, no one is going to use it

India: I wish India opens up more because if you open up more, India will be a much greater market in the future.

Never Bought Any Cryptocurrency

Never bought any cryptocurrency; many cryptocurrencies have disappeared and gone to zero in value. If government outlaws crypto, no one is going to use it.

Bitcoin: It Looks Like A Bubble

I have never bought any cryptocurrency but I wish I had bought Bitcoin. Bitcoin to me looks like a bubble. I have seen many other cryptocurrencies disappear. I am not making maoney but I am not losing money either. 

Bonds Are In A Bubble

 

"As I look around the world, bonds are certainly in a bubble. Stocks in some countries are near highs. Property in many places is in a bubble. About the only asset class I see that’s still cheap, are commodities."

How To Become A Successful Investor

 

Precious investment lessons from the legendary investor, Jim B. Rogers.

Everybody wants a hot tip, everybody wants to get rich this month. That is not how you become successful.

It's Difficult To Make A Steady Income Trading

One interesting quote from Unknown Market Wizards about how difficult it is to make a steady income trading:

"Opportunities are dispersed. You might have an opportunity today and then have to wait three months for the next opportunity. That reality is hard to accept because you want to make a steady income from trading, but it doesn't work that way."

-- Richard Bargh, Unknown Market Wizards

U.S. Stock Market: It's Not A Full-Fledged Bubble Yet

Many stocks in the United States are down in 2020. There are a few stocks that are going through the roof every day. Some parts of the U.S. stock market are developing the beginning of a bubble but many parts of the market are not and that's why I would suspect this is going to go on for a while because it's not a full-fledged bubble yet. It's beginning to be in some stocks.

Money Printing Is Going Into The Markets

The United States central bank has been printing gigantic amounts of money and the central government has been spending huge amounts of money. So all this money's got to go somewhere it's going into the markets.

Video: U.S. Stock Market Outlook

 Jim Rogers gives his outlook on the U.S. stock market. 

"Maybe we'll have a pullback but if so then Washington DC is going to panic and do everything they can to get the markets up again but that's true in several other countries around the world."

Bonds Are Risky, Commodities Are Cheap.

Bonds have never been this high in the recorded history of the world, so that's a problem. The cheapest asset class is commodities. Silver is down fifty percent from its all-time high while sugar is down eighty percent from its all-time high. Agriculture is a disaster. I'm buying more agriculture as we speak.

Japanese Market May Go Back To Its All-Time High

I wouldn't be surprised if the Japanese market - and this isn't a prediction - went back to its all-time high during this period. We can have a wonderful time while the guy at the Bank of Japan, Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, is printing and buying, printing and buying.

Related trading instruments: Nikkei 225, TOPIX

Weekend Thoughts: Diversification, Trading Discipline, Goals

Some interesting thoughts and quotes from this weekend on twitter:

"To be calm is the highest achievement of the self.” 

-- Zen Proverb

"Diversification is a hedge against a lack of knowledge."
-- Naval Ravikant

"If you are lonely when you're alone, you are in bad company."
-- Jean Paul Sartre

Trading related, this thought from Mark Minervini on discipline is very interesting:

"There's a very simple test to see if you are disciplined and actually have a strategy. After you make a trade, especially when at a loss, do you find yourself hoping?"

Paul Graham predicts that tech companies will keep on winning: 

"Prediction: Remote work will become so fashionable that even companies that don't get it will try to embrace it, leading to a bimodal distribution of outcomes. This bimodal distribution will be the same we've seen over and over already: tech cos will win."

Finally here's a link to Ray Dalio's piece on  How To Focus On A Goal. 

Time Is Money

"To compound your capital rapidly, you want to be where the action is. You can’t afford to tie up your capital waiting for the rest of the world to agree with you; time is money. The goal is not to buy at the cheapest price but to sell your stock for more than the price you paid."

--Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in The Stock Market Wizards