Bitcoin: Ray Dalio & Elon Musk

Interesting take from Peter Schiff on Bitcoin, Ray Dalio and Elon Musk,

"If Elon Musk or Ray Dalio intended to buy Bitcoin they would not announce it to the world in advance. They clearly know the effect such an announcement would have on price. So either they already bought all the Bitcoin they want to own, or they are unlikely to actually buy any."

--Peter Schiff

Jim's First Trades

 

Jim Rogers tries to remember his first trade and describes his early experiences on Wall Street. 

Currencies: Turmoil Will Benefit The US Dollar

 

I own a lot of US Dollars at the moment. 

The United States is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and it's getting worse every day so you probably should say well, why do you own US Dollars? 

I own them because we're going to have more problems, turmoil in the world later this year or next year. 

During times like that people always look for a safe haven. They think the US Dollar is a safe haven. It's not but they think it is for historic reasons.

So, the US Dollar will go much higher and it might even turn into a bubble. It'll certainly get overpriced at which point i'll have to sell my dollars.

Latest Interview With The Economic Times

Recent interview with the Economic Times:

Jim Rogers’ tip for new investors: Don't let hot tips ruin you

Topics:

- Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin regulation
- India agriculture
- Russia, China
- Stock market outlook

India Should Be A Great Agricultural Nation Again

India should be, could be and will be a great agricultural nation again if the government gets out of the way and leaves those smart farmers to do it.

It's very dangerous when the government says it is coming to help you. When the government comes to help you, leave home, go away.

Bitcoin: A Perspective (from Peter Schiff)

 Recent Peter Schiff's commentary on Bitcoin,

"Losing the private key to your Bitcoin wallet is not the same thing as forgetting where you buried your gold. When gold is lost the world loses something -- the potential use of that gold as a metal. When Bitcoin is lost the world loses nothing. Gold is wealth. Bitcoin is not."

"The fact that an ounce of #gold can be divided into grams does not make it any less scarce. That's because its the weight of gold that's scarce relative to the demand to use it as a metal. Bitcoin weighs nothing and is used for nothing. So, dividing Bitcoin reduces its scarcity."

"The reason a one-ounce gold coin is twice as valuable as a half-ounce gold coin is that you can make twice as much jewelry with an ounce of gold as you can with a half ounce. Since you can't make anything out of a Bitcoin, a full Bitcoin has no more value than half a Bitcoin."

Investing: Bear Markets, Apple, Tencent

 Here are the links for the latest media appearances:

• Jim Rogers’ tip for new investors: Don't let hot tips ruin you
• ‘If I had Apple and Tencent, I would have sold them by now,’ says Jim Rogers
• Jim Rogers predicts the next bear market will be the worst in over 70 years

Have a great trading day!

Bitcoin Looks Like A Bubble

Many cryptocurrencies have disappeared and gone to zero.

We all watch Bitcoin but there are many others that have disappeared completely. 

I do not know who is buying Bitcoin. It looks to me like a bubble. I have seen many bubbles in my life.

Every Dollar A Young Man Saves

"I came into the market with $600 in 1968 and left in 1980 with millions. I was convinced, and still am, that every dollar a young man saves, properly invested, will return him 20 over the course of his life." 

-- Jim Rogers

Gold & Silver Will Eventually Go Much Higher!

I'm waiting for the correction. 

I don't know how long that correction will last, a month or a year. 

I will buy more silver, because it is down 50 per cent from highs, gold is down 10 per cent or something. 

I will buy a lot of silver and gold sometime later, because their prices would eventually go much higher.

Investing: Do Not Listen To Hot Tips

One should only invest in what s/he knows about.

Do not listen to hot tips, or me.

Everybody wants hot tips.

Those would bankrupt you, ruin you.

The way to be successful as an investor is to do nothing until you yourself know it is going to work and is backed by your own research.

Do Not Doubt Yourself

"I remember when I first started trading in 83 with a few grand saved and not a clue what I was doing. I don't know how, but I never doubted I would be successful. And you shouldn't doubt yourself. Why? Because every person can do much more than they think they can. My guarantee."

-- Mark Minervini, Momentum stocks trader profiled in Market Wizards Series

Vaccination Will Take A While

People think that the vaccine is going to calm things down and make economies restore themselves. It may well happen but it's certainly going to take a while. It's going to take a long time for people to get the vaccine.

I live in Singapore, a country with five and a half million people and it's going to be at least two quarters, maybe three before everybody gets it here and we're a small place. So, it's going to take a while.

Setting Goals

"If you limit your goals to what you know you can achieve, you are setting the bar way too low. Remember that great expectations create great capabilities."

-- Ray Dalio, hedge fund manager

Latest Market Commentary: January 20th 2021

 Currencies /Forex: Euro can't be a reserve currency for the world instead of the US dollar. Chinese renminbi could be one in the future

Stock Market: This bubble is not complete yet. When it becomes a full bubble, it will pop and a lot of people will lose lot of money

Cryptocurrencies: Never bought any cryptocurrency; many cryptocurrencies have disappeared and gone to zero in value. If government outlaws crypto, no one is going to use it

India: I wish India opens up more because if you open up more, India will be a much greater market in the future.

Never Bought Any Cryptocurrency

Never bought any cryptocurrency; many cryptocurrencies have disappeared and gone to zero in value. If government outlaws crypto, no one is going to use it.

Bitcoin: It Looks Like A Bubble

I have never bought any cryptocurrency but I wish I had bought Bitcoin. Bitcoin to me looks like a bubble. I have seen many other cryptocurrencies disappear. I am not making maoney but I am not losing money either. 

Bonds Are In A Bubble

 

"As I look around the world, bonds are certainly in a bubble. Stocks in some countries are near highs. Property in many places is in a bubble. About the only asset class I see that’s still cheap, are commodities."

How To Become A Successful Investor

 

Precious investment lessons from the legendary investor, Jim B. Rogers.

Everybody wants a hot tip, everybody wants to get rich this month. That is not how you become successful.

It's Difficult To Make A Steady Income Trading

One interesting quote from Unknown Market Wizards about how difficult it is to make a steady income trading:

"Opportunities are dispersed. You might have an opportunity today and then have to wait three months for the next opportunity. That reality is hard to accept because you want to make a steady income from trading, but it doesn't work that way."

-- Richard Bargh, Unknown Market Wizards

U.S. Stock Market: It's Not A Full-Fledged Bubble Yet

Many stocks in the United States are down in 2020. There are a few stocks that are going through the roof every day. Some parts of the U.S. stock market are developing the beginning of a bubble but many parts of the market are not and that's why I would suspect this is going to go on for a while because it's not a full-fledged bubble yet. It's beginning to be in some stocks.

Money Printing Is Going Into The Markets

The United States central bank has been printing gigantic amounts of money and the central government has been spending huge amounts of money. So all this money's got to go somewhere it's going into the markets.

Video: U.S. Stock Market Outlook

 Jim Rogers gives his outlook on the U.S. stock market. 

"Maybe we'll have a pullback but if so then Washington DC is going to panic and do everything they can to get the markets up again but that's true in several other countries around the world."

Bonds Are Risky, Commodities Are Cheap.

Bonds have never been this high in the recorded history of the world, so that's a problem. The cheapest asset class is commodities. Silver is down fifty percent from its all-time high while sugar is down eighty percent from its all-time high. Agriculture is a disaster. I'm buying more agriculture as we speak.

Japanese Market May Go Back To Its All-Time High

I wouldn't be surprised if the Japanese market - and this isn't a prediction - went back to its all-time high during this period. We can have a wonderful time while the guy at the Bank of Japan, Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda, is printing and buying, printing and buying.

Related trading instruments: Nikkei 225, TOPIX

Weekend Thoughts: Diversification, Trading Discipline, Goals

Some interesting thoughts and quotes from this weekend on twitter:

"To be calm is the highest achievement of the self.” 

-- Zen Proverb

"Diversification is a hedge against a lack of knowledge."
-- Naval Ravikant

"If you are lonely when you're alone, you are in bad company."
-- Jean Paul Sartre

Trading related, this thought from Mark Minervini on discipline is very interesting:

"There's a very simple test to see if you are disciplined and actually have a strategy. After you make a trade, especially when at a loss, do you find yourself hoping?"

Paul Graham predicts that tech companies will keep on winning: 

"Prediction: Remote work will become so fashionable that even companies that don't get it will try to embrace it, leading to a bimodal distribution of outcomes. This bimodal distribution will be the same we've seen over and over already: tech cos will win."

Finally here's a link to Ray Dalio's piece on  How To Focus On A Goal. 

Time Is Money

"To compound your capital rapidly, you want to be where the action is. You can’t afford to tie up your capital waiting for the rest of the world to agree with you; time is money. The goal is not to buy at the cheapest price but to sell your stock for more than the price you paid."

--Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in The Stock Market Wizards

Progress & Setbacks

A fantastic quote from a great book:

“Progress happens too slowly to notice, setbacks happen too quickly to ignore.”

— Morgan Housel, Psychology of Money

Video Interview: How To Invest

Highlights:  

"When you're 21, you don't know a lot about investing."

"If you don't understand the numbers, you should not be investing."

"Everybody wants to be rich this week."

"There's more than one way to be a good investor."

Short Story: School & Life Teachings

A very interesting short story from Matthew Kobach:

School: “Here’s the answer. Now tell me the answer.” 

Life: “There might be an answer. There also might not be an answer. Go find out.”

Seven Investing Rules

 

Do your research. Invest in what you know. Embrace change. Stay away from hot investment tips. 

Watch the video to find all the seven investment rules! Learn to become a successful investor. 

Paradoxes of Trading

"Paradoxes of Trading. The more money you make, the bigger your drawdowns will become. Paradoxically that fear of those bigger drawdowns holds many people back from getting bigger."

-- Steven Goldstein, Trader Performance Coach and host of the The AlphaMind Podcast

Greatness Takes Time

"You can't force experience... that takes time. Be patient with yourself and stay the course. With a good plan and persistence, everyday you take step in the direction of your dreams, while those who want it fast without putting in the work give up and quit.

Greatness takes time... stay the course."

-- Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in the The Stock Market Wizards

The Secret For Success

My secret for success: When someone has more success than me, I pull up a chair with pad & pen and shut my mouth while I listen and take notes. I'm willing to put my ego aside and learn from success instead of envying it. No matter how successful I get, I maintain this humility.

-- Mark Minervini

PS: Mark Minervini was profiled in the Stock Market Wizards book, the third book from the Market Wizards books written by Jack Schwager. Jim Rogers was profiled in the original book, Market Wizards. 

Bitcoin & Investing Mistakes

 Sharing some interesting reading on Bitcoin:

Bitcoin: A New Kind Of Bubble?

Roubini: Bitcoin Has No Role In Portfolios

The Bitcoin Mania On CNBC

Investing quote of the day, 

“A mistake is not something to be determined after the fact but in light of the information until that point.”
-- Nassim Taleb

Thought of the day,

"When you realize there is nothing lacking, the whole world belongs to you."
-- Lao Tzu

One Very Important Skill Great Traders Have

"One very important skill great traders have is the ability to gauge when to step on the gas and get aggressive and when to ride the brake or even sit out completely. Most of the time you should not be trading very aggressively. Trading requires a lot of patience and stalking."

-- Mark Minervini, momentum stocks trader profiled in The Stock Market Wizards book

Jim Rogers: Technology and Communications

The world works better when we are open & willing to work together.

China is ahead of us in digital money and innovation in general. 

Markets: Biggest Risks in 2021

 Latest article on Reuters: U.S. debt, Fed easy money biggest risks in 2021: Jim Rogers

Topics covered: 2021 biggest risks, the new Administration, the U.S. Dollar and Janet Yellen.

Investing: How You Become Successful

Everybody watching this knows a lot about something whether it's sports, cars, fashion or something else.

You look at it every day, you go on the internet, you read about it because that's what you love. 

When you see a change taking place that you know is going to be successful because you know a lot about that, then do more research and make investments. That's how you become successful!

History Is Clear On What Happens Next

Every central bank and every government is spending, borrowing and printing as much money as they can. Markets love it! I'm not sure what the world is going to think about it in a few years.

The Next Bear Market

Arcticle on Market Watch, The next bear market will be the worst in at least 78 years, warns co-founder of Soros’s legendary Quantum Fund 🐻

 - Highlighted quote from the article: 

🗣   ‘It’s good to be old. Young people have a very bleak future ahead of them.’

Article on Daily Mail UK,  Hedge fund millionaire's dire prediction that Australia will suffer a downturn WORSE than the Great Depression - so what should you buy to survive?

 - Highlighted quote from the article: 

🗣   "One notable feature of this latest crisis was both how sharply market conditions deteriorated and how quickly they recovered. The actions by central banks and governments around the globe doubtless contributed to this rebound."

America Should Focus More On Long-Term Growth

 

History tells us competition and openness make us greater. Check out this fruitful dialogue with international investor & author Jim Rogers.

Video duration: 7m08s

Highlights: 

America should focus more on long-term growth.

"I wish America would not do what it's doing. I wish that America if it's going to spend money it would spend money on developing infrastructure. In America we're just spending it on making sure people have jobs which is great for the people but it's not good for the long-term growth of America."

Jim Rogers Tips Trump Win

This week's press roundup:

Starting with the interview with Financial Review: Jim Rogers tips Trump win, market 'blow-off'

One of the highlights from this interview was when Jim said, "I am not a betting person at all – but if I was, I would bet Trump was going to win."

In another interview with the Daily Mail Australia, Jim Rogers predicts a dire outlook for Australia:
Australia will suffer a downturn WORSE than the Great Depression

Highlights from this article,

'Governments everywhere and central banks everywhere are printing and borrowing and spending huge amounts of money - as long as that lasts, the markets are very happy'

'Australia could be extremely susceptible because your politicians keep making enemies of people that you shouldn't be enemies of - like China.'

Trump Is Better For The Stock Market

If Donald Trump wins, the stock market is more likely to stay higher for a while. If the opposition wins, normally what happens is the opposition comes in, cleans out everything they want to clean out, take the pain now so that they can get reelected next time around.

Theoretically if Joe Biden wins it won't be as good as if Mr. Trump wins. Maybe that's what the market has been telling us recently.

Street Smarts: Animated Book Summary

Here’s an animated book summary of Street Smarts. Enjoy:

The book “Street Smarts” by Jim Rogers is an engaging memoir and also a great source of financial education and investment advice from a person who has traveled all over the world with the purpose to see and understand how the countries’ economies and political regimes have evolved. Learn where the next great place to live will be and which country offers the best investment opportunities at the moment, from a guy who not only delivers financial commentary on TV but walks his talks with great success.

Buy the book on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Street-Smarts-Adventures-Road-Markets-ebook/dp/B008WOUFIS