The Holy Grail Of Investing Explained

In this video Ray Dalio explains what he considers to be his Holy Grail in trading and the secret behind his large returns and low volatility. A must watch!

The Holy Grail of Investing

Other interesting articles from Ray Dalio Principles:

The Big Bet That Failed 
Warning To The Average Investor

And will Bitcoin end 2020 with a loss for the year? Peter Schiff answered: Will Bitcoin End The Year With a Loss?

Investing In Korean Tourism

Learn about Korean tourism because it's going to be a gigantic business in the next few years. All of Asian tourism because now the Chinese can travel, they can get passports easily, they can take money out of the country. Asian tourism, especially Korean tourism you will be at the right place.

One-On-One With Jim Rogers

One-on-one with legendary investor, Jim Rogers, main presenter at ASEAN-KOREA Ceo's Summit. 

Video interview with Jim Rogers live from the 2019 ASEAN-Republic of Korea Commemorative Summit.

Video duration: 4:33m

Trump Wants The Stock Market To Go Higher!

Interesting interview with Jim Rickards on Kitco News.


Topics: 

- Trade war
- Trump wants the stock market to go higher and will do almost anything to accomplish that goal

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Futures

Investing In China (video)

Dr. Steve Sjuggerud sits down with legendary investor Jim Rogers to chat about Investing into China.

Video duration: 1:09:13

Financial Markets Will Move To Asia

Chicago, they invented the Soybean futures contracts. But now, China uses more soybeans than anybody in the world and China now has a Soybean Futures Contract which is bigger than Chicago's but it's not open to the west yet, it's just for Chinese. All of this is going to change and the markets will move to Asia because it is what the consumption is and where much of the production is.

The Dangers of Owning Exchange Traded Funds

In a recent interview with MarketWatch.com warned retail investors about the dangers of owning Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) through a bear market. You can read the full article here:Jim Rogers says ETF holders will get mauled by ‘the worst’ bear market in a ‘lifetime’

Investing: Opportunities In Agriculture

Agriculture has been a disaster for 35 years or so. The average age of farmers in America is 58. More people in America study public relations and study agriculture. The highest rate of suicide in the UK is agriculture. 

In Japan, the average age of farmers is 68. Nobody becomes a farmer, you go to Japan now, there're huge stretches of land, they're just empty. They can't find anybody to farm them. Farmers have died, the kids have gone to Osaka. There's nobody to farm that land. If you want to be a former, go to Japan. You can get a lot of land cheap. That's true. 

Australia, Canada, all of these countries have very, very aged old farmers, men and women. It's millions of Indian farmers have committed suicide, as I'm sure you know. No, no, agriculture is a disaster. The Chinese have a word, you know the Chinese word weiji? It means disaster and opportunity are the same and they are. If you can survive the disaster, you're going to make a lot of money with the opportunity.

Markets: We Are Going To Have Problems Again

Latest Jim Rogers video interview from his home in Singapore.

Topics discussed:

• a new financial crisis
• Commodities
• Crypto currencies
• Agriculture

"We are going to have problems again, we have always had problems all over the world." - Jim Rogers

I Would Bet That Trump Will Be Reelected

I think it's very hard to dislodge a sitting president in America for many, many reasons. I would suspect that's the same to this time. Now, we got rid of Coolidge, and Hoover. We got rid of Hoover because the market collapsed but we don't have much time for that because the election is only, what, 13-14 months away now. 

If the market really collapses in the next 13 or 14 months, then I would change my view, but there are enough things he can do, which is why it's hard to get rid of sitting presidents. They'll prop things up long enough to get through the election. I would, if I were betting and I'm not a betting man, but if I were, I would bet that Trump will be reelected.

The Problem Is Brussels

It's not the European Union (EU), it's not the currency. It's those unelected, absurd bureaucrats who don't know what they're doing, but they tell you what to do, and you have to do it because you're a citizen. That's the problem!

Today's most interesting read: From Peter Schiff's blog, Capitalism Is Failing In Hollywood.

Equities: What To Buy?

It's hard for me to find places to buy now. I don't own any US stocks, they are near an all-time highs. If I buy anything, it's Russia. I'm buying a Russian stock as we speak. Nothing in China but I always looking in China. These markets are down. 

I prefer to buy low and sell high or trying to buy low and sell high. It's difficult for me to find anything. Venezuela is illegal for me. I'm an American citizen. I'd like to buy in Venezuela, but I don't want to go to jail. I'd rather be poor out of jail, than rich in jail so I'm not buying that. I cannot buy a North Korea, I would love to buy a North Korea but I'm a citizen of the land of the free. We're not very free in the land of the free so it's hard to find things for me these days. I've bought a few shares of Zimbabwe recently.

Why The American Economy Has Held Up So Well

So far the American economy has held up well because of a lot of money printing, a lot of government spending, cut taxes, everything possible to hold up the American economy. 

When things get bad in America as they will, Mr. Trump is not going to say, "It's my fault. I got it wrong." Donald Trump is going to say those evil Germans, those Koreans, those Canadians, and he's going to come back hard with more and more whatever you want to call it. The situation, we're going to have the worst bear market in my lifetime.

Gold: I Started Buying More This Summer

I started buying more gold this summer, because I could see what was happening. I still own plenty of gold and silver. I guess the fact that it doesn't yield much or anything doesn't bother anyone now. Bonds don't yield anything either. Most things don't yield anything these days.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

Currencies: Singapore Dollar (SGD) Will Go Down Against The U.S. Dollar (USD)

The Singapore dollar (SGD), like all currencies, is going to go down against the US dollar (USD), because the US dollar (USD) is going to go much higher. 

Singapore doesn't like to talk about its debt but Singapore has debt, too. The IMF says that the Singapore debt is over 100 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). There is serious debt here. 

Now Singapore would say yeah, but we got a lot of asset, too. They do. There's no question about that. Once interest rates start going higher, normally, your debts get worse and your assets don't get better so the Singapore dollar (SGD) is going to suffer too, but it's mainly because the US dollar (USD) is going to be so strong when people start looking for a safe haven.

Real Vision: China and Global Investment

Jim Rogers has been fascinated by China since he drove his motorcycle across the country in the 1980s.

The investing legend joins Real Vision to give his view of the rising Asian superpower and, more broadly, on rising Asia in general.

Rogers provides his views on the Hong Kong crisis and the simmering trade war. He also weighs in on whether the era of US dollar primacy has passed — especially now that the United States has become, in Rogers’ view, “the largest debtor nation in the history of the world.”

$17 Trillion In Negative Yielding Debt

$17 trillion now of negative yielding debt. It never happened in world history. It's absurd. 

It's a bunch of misguided bureaucrats and academics who don't know what they're doing. They're hoping. This has never happened in world history. Never in world history has this happened and it's going to be a gigantic disaster for all of us. 

How does it end? Badly. Bankruptcies. There are many states and cities, not just in America, Germany's got cities that are in trouble. Forget, we haven't even talked about Spain yet or Italy or some of the other places. No, many places are going to have serious problems. 

 Once interest rates go back to normal, it's going to cause a lot of, lot of bankruptcies and problems around the world.

China Is Letting The Currency Go Down

Any country, which has hundreds of billions of dollars of sanctions or tariffs imposed on it, the currency is going to go down, period, full stop. It's not just the Chinese, the Chinese are apparently letting it go down and not trying to control it. Anybody who has that ax chopped on it is going to be affected, because it theoretically is going to hurt your trade balance of trade very seriously when you have those tariffs imposed. 

Maybe China's saying, "Okay, we'll let it go, we're not going to stop it." To try to stop a currency declining when you've had hundreds of billions of dollars of tariffs hitting you, you have to be affected. To try to stop that decline would cost gigantic amounts of money.

The Future Of Hong Kong Is Continued Decline

I think the future of Hong Kong is continued decline. 

The only reason Hong Kong became Hong Kong was because of 1949, in Mao Zi time. Now, you don't need Hong Kong anymore. Shanghai was the largest financial center between New York and London before the before the war, Second World War.

China's opening up so we don't need Hong Kong anymore. It's going to continue to decline. When the Renminbi, the Chinese currency, is convertible, yes, I would expect the Hong Kong dollar to disappear.

Related tickers:  iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index ETF (FXI), iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index ETF (EWH)

New Book: Warning To Japan

In his most recent book, U.S. investor Jim Rogers issues a stark warning over Japan's future. In "Warning To Japan", warned of a dark future for Japan if it does not take drastic measures to curb its massive debt and severe population decline. Here's a few excerpts from the book:

"Japan's national debt is going to swell due to the Olympics, and this can only lead to a bad outcome for ordinary citizens." 

"There was such a long period of astonishing prosperity, when everything worked." 

"But Japan got so rich, so successful, that... it resulted in huge protectionism." 

"If there was somebody in Japan who will say, we got to bear this pain, we have to sort this out. And if we don't, the 10-year-olds in Japan today will have no future." 

"But the problem is that the politicians in power today don't want to do that. They know if they cause the pain, it is not going to be good for them." 

"They're opening up a little bit, but not nearly enough."

"It's simple arithmetic. The population is going down and they're not having babies. It is straightforward, but overwhelming and frightening for their future."

"Few people have any confidence; they know, consciously or subconsciously, that there is something wrong. Maybe somebody will change things, but I'm afraid I don't see that happening right now. There are too many entrenched interests."

Investing, Global Debt & A Bubble In Education

In a recent interview with Money And Markets, Jim Rogers commented on his unortodhox approach to investing,

“I’ve been wildly bullish on many things many times, but often it’s things that people don’t understand. That’s how you get rich: You buy things that other people don’t care about.”

And Jim also expressed concerns about the rising level of debt worldwide:

“Nobody’s reduced their debt since 2008, specifically the mounting deficits in both the U.S. and China."

And finally Jim Rogers pinpointed a bubble in education in the United States:

There’s also a bubble in college education in the U.S., but I don’t know any way to short Princeton.”

Bankruptcies Are Coming

You're gonna start seeing bankruptcies. You're even gonna see bankruptcies in China which is gonna shock a lot of people including me and I just told you it's coming. 

There's a lot of debt in the world. In 2008 we had a big problem because of too much debt. Since then, you know the debt has skyrocketed everywhere and so we're gonna start seeing bankruptcies and with interest rates rising we're gonna see a collapse.

Market Update: British Pound, Gold and Silver

British Pound Outlook, The United Kingdom Can Break Up

The United Kingdom has huge debts. The United Kingdom is one of the most indebted nations in the world on any kind of comparative data. They don't have as much debt as the United States as it's a much smaller country. There's huge, gigantic debts which people don't seem to pay too much attention to. I pay attention to.

This story is not going down because of Boris Johnson. I mean, maybe he's contributing, maybe he's a needle causing the pinprick but no, Sterling has got huge problems and whatever happens it's going to get worse. It looks to me like the political problems are certainly going to make it much much worse, I mean the United Kingdom could break up.

US Dollar, Gold 

Many things that are gonna make the next problem very very very serious and a alternative an alternative is the the US dollar I expect the US dollar to get overpriced I expected it maybe turn into a bubble but often when that happens gold goes down you know if the dollar is very very strong go this week so my plan but don't pay too much attention my plan is that the US dollars going to get oh Christ I'm gonna sell my US Dollars and as gold goes down in that crisis as it often does I will put my US dollars into gold.

Gold or Silver?

If somebody came in and said, "You gotta buy Gold or Silver!" I would buy silver today. 

7 Investing Lessons From Jim Rogers

1) My problem, my strength, is I don't like to sell. I like to own things. The kinds of things I buy, often, you can own forever, or at least for many, many years.

2) The book that I still to this day tell people to read is Security Analysis by Ben Graham. I read it decades ago. Short of that, The Intelligent Investor by Graham and Dodd. Graham's ideas of investing in fundamentals and cheap stocks, I realized that's the that's the kind of investor I was, that's what I loved and thought was great. So, I recommend that book when people ask me what book to read or books to read I tell them about Ben Graham. 

3) The more certain something is, the less likely it is to be profitable. 

4) If people learn to be a little more attentive to what they see they might wind up making investments and they might be successful. 

5) One of the best things I can tell you is do not have a lot of debt and try to stay away from people that have a lot of debt. 

6) Those who can not adjust to change will be swept aside by it. Those who recognize change and react accordingly will benefit. 

7) If you want to get rich you don't diversify. You put all your eggs in one basket and then you watch the basket very carefully. You got to make sure it's the right basket or you will go bankrupt but that's how you get rich. Henry Ford never diversified, Bill Gates never diversified.

Bullish On South Korea

South Korea's economy has been slowing as well at the moment. South Korea's having a problem, everybody is because of trade wars, there are many, many reasons that the world is starting to slow down and we're going to have a very very serious problem in the next year or two. But once the 38th parallel opens this is gonna be the most exciting part of the world for the next 10 or 20 years. You have everything going for you once the 38th parallel opens. In the meantime things are not gonna be so good.

Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY)

Opportunities In North Korea

Once it opens everything. They don't have anything, they don't have ties, they don't have chairs, they don't have electricity so anything you can do you can go there and make a fortune. Tourism is going to be a fabulous opportunity for everybody. The Korean Peninsula has not been on the world tourism map ever and it will be again and everybody will want to come and they will see the sights, the beaches, the temples, the food. 

Agriculture In Russia Is Booming

Back to agriculture-- prices are still not up. Prices are still down, for a variety of reasons. I mean agriculture has been a disaster for 35 years, as you probably know. I have an agricultural index of agriculture prices. It's down, what, 30, 35 percent over the past 20 years. 

Now there's not much in life where the prices are down 20 percent over the past 20 years, much less over the past 30 years. So, agriculture is a disaster. And often throughout history if you find things that are disasters and you buy them, you may lose money first or you may go bankrupt first, but usually you make a lot of money in the end. 

It's not the first time we've had big cycles in agriculture, in real assets, and probably not be the last time either. But agriculture, back to the point, it's horrendous. It's a nightmare, except Russia by the way. Russia right now, agriculture is booming because America put sanctions and Europe put sanctions on Russia. 

So, Russian agriculture is booming because America has said we're going to hurt the Russians badly. We're going to put sanctions on them. So they did. You couldn't sell food to the Russians. The Russians said we won't buy food from the West. So, now the Russian agriculture is booming. 

And if you ever read any Russian history or novels, you know that historically there have been times when agriculture has been big, big, big in Russia. It is again. I mean America shot-- the West I should say shot itself in the foot because now they've developed this huge booming, thriving industry in Russia.

7 Investing Lessons From Jim Rogers

1) My problem, my strength, is I don't like to sell. I like to own things. The kinds of things I buy, often, you can own forever, or at least for many, many years.

2) The book that I still to this day tell people to read is Security Analysis by Ben Graham. I read it decades ago. Short of that, The Intelligent Investor by Graham and Dodd. Graham's ideas of investing in fundamentals and cheap stocks, I realized that's the that's the kind of investor I was, that's what I loved and thought was great. So, I recommend that book when people ask me what book to read or books to read I tell them about Ben Graham. 

3) The more certain something is, the less likely it is to be profitable. 

4) If people learn to be a little more attentive to what they see they might wind up making investments and they might be successful. 

5) One of the best things I can tell you is do not have a lot of debt and try to stay away from people that have a lot of debt. 

6) Those who can not adjust to change will be swept aside by it. Those who recognize change and react accordingly will benefit. 

7) If you want to get rich you don't diversify. You put all your eggs in one basket and then you watch the basket very carefully. You got to make sure it's the right basket or you will go bankrupt but that's how you get rich. Henry Ford never diversified, Bill Gates never diversified.

Swiss Franc (CHF): A Horrendous Investment

I have some Swiss Francs (CHF) sort of by accident, and I worry about them all the time. It's not enough for me to spend too much time worrying about but I realize the Swiss Franc (CHF), when it caves, when the bear market comes, is going to be a horrendous investment, just like the ETFs. Because there are all these people who buy them. Same with the Swiss Franc (CHF). What could go wrong? Like Japan, what could go wrong?

Investing: My Problem, My Strength

My problem, my strength, is I don't like to sell. I like to own things. The kinds of things I buy, often, you can own forever, or at least for many, many years.

Over 90% Of Stocks Are In Downtrends

Over ninety percent of the stocks (in the S&P 500 Index) are in downtrends. Ten percent are in uptrends, but they're big companies. And since the S&P 500 Index is capitalization weighted, those 50 stocks, 40 stocks, whatever it is, dragged the average to all-time highs. 

Now, that doesn't mean it's not painful if you short those stocks. But basically, this has happened many times in market history. It gets narrower, and narrower, and narrower, the advance does, until it's just down to a few names. And eventually, they crack, too.

Stock Market: Lack Of Breadth

Today, if you look at the S&P 500 Index, for instance, in the United States, I think there are only 40 or 45 stocks that are above their 50-day moving averages, to use a technician's kind of talk. Everything else is in a downtrend. And yet the market is making all-time highs. Definitely a lack of breadth.

Video: The Potential For A Major Correction

Recent video interview with Real Vision where Jim Rogers discusses his concerns over the potential for a major correction in financial markets. He also identifies the sectors and countries that he’s bullish on.

The U.S. Dollar Is Not A Safe Haven

People would think the U.S. dollar is a safe haven, it’s not. The fundamentals are horrible. Nobody in his right mind would buy the U.S. dollar, but I own a lot because I’m not in my right mind. I’m assuming that the rest of the world is not in its mind either and they’re all going to buy it.

Japan Does Not Have A Great Future

Japan is one of my very favorite countries in the whole world. I'm extremely keen on Japan in fact I would probably live here except I want my children to speak Mandarin. But if you spoke Mandarin, I would probably live in Japan as it's such a fantastic place to visit and live.

Having said that, it grieves me because I see serious problems in Japan which is the point of this book. I am a foreigner and I know that the Japanese don't like foreigners but this this book is not really a foreigners book it is based on simple arithmetic whether you're Japanese or not Japanese the arithmetic is the same.

Every day the debt goes higher, there's addition and there's subtraction because every day the population declines in Japan. Everything can go wrong. You have a central bank which is printing staggering amounts of money every day and buys Japanese shares and Japanese bonds.

I'm old enough to remember and maybe some of you are that if even 30 years ago somebody had said, "Oh, the central bank of a major economy and a major country is going to print huge amounts of money and buy shares in its stock market." people would have walked away. They wouldn't listen to you anymore, so incomprehensible, inconceivable that that could happen even 30 years ago.

But look out the window, it's happening every day in Japan right now while the population declines and the debt goes up. So, I mean as far as I can see Japan doesn't have a great future.

Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ), Nikkei 225 Index

Forex: The Hong Kong Dollar (HKD) Will Disappear

“I expect the Hong Kong dollar to break free of the US dollar once the renminbi [Chinese yuan] is convertible. The Hong Kong dollar will disappear… but that will not happen until the renminbi is completely convertible." - in RT.com (read the complete article here: Hong Kong’s days as global financial hub may be numbered – Jim Rogers)

Interview: China, Financial Markets (video)

Watch this one-hour long interview with Jim Rogers where the legendary investor talks about China and all the major subjects that may impact financial markets in the future.

Hong Kong: Global Financial Hub Status In Jeopardy

In a recent interview with RT.com Jim Rogers expressed the view that the recent political turmoil will be putting Hong Kong's global financial hub status in risk. Read the complete article here: Hong Kong’s days as global financial hub may be numbered – Jim Rogers

Jim Rogers Partners With Nanomedics

Jim Rogers is joining the management of South Korean graphene firm Nanomedics: Jim Rogers to Join Management of S. Korean Graphene Firm

Jim Rogers has been bullish on graphene for a long time and is widely recognized as a leading expert in commodities.

Podcast: The Dangers Of A Trade War

Jim Rogers explains why is it so dangerous that President Trump and his team believe that a trade war can be won. Jim sees this as a major risk to the world economy and financial markets.

Podcast: The Bull Market Is Over

In this podcast, Jim Rogers explains why he thinks the bull market in U.S. equities is about to come to an end.

Trade War: Trump Thinks He Can Win

The next time the American stock market or the economy starts having problems, Mr. Trump is going to blame that on Asia and come out with more trade wars, not just against China but against Japan, Korea and everybody because Mr. Trump in his heart thinks trade war is good. He is surrounded by people who think a trade war is good. He thinks he can win a trade war. He does not know history, thinks he is smarter than history or both.

How Bear Markets Start

It has been over 10 years since we had a serious bear market in the United States. I would suspect by the end of this year or next year, it will start. These things always start small, where people are not looking and then they work to the major markets, and then you see them on the major news.

Jim Rogers: Not Investing in US Stock Market

I am not investing in US stock market because I expect problems to come in the next year or two. 

I am not buying shares. In the US market, some of the stocks like Apple and Google go up every day. They never go down, which is a dangerous sign in any stock markets. When you have a few stocks always going up and the movement has been concentrated and that seems to be what is happening in the US stock market.

Related trading instruments: SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), Nasdaq 100 Futures

Trump Thinks He Can Win A Trade War

Mr. Trump believes in his soul, in his brain that trade wars are good and that he can win a trade war. Mr. Trump knows he's smarter than everybody else so he knows he can win a trade war. 

It will come back strong when the American economy gets bad eventually, he's gonna blame it on trade.

Trade War: They Will Announce Something

They're gonna announce something it's gonna make us all feel good. That's one reason the markets are rallying now but later this year or next year when the economies around the world are getting worse Mr. Trump is gonna blame everything on the foreigners, the Chinese, the Germans, the Japanese, everybody. Then the trade war will come back and then it's all over. All the market euphoria will be over, the bull market is over.

Video: What India Needs To Do To Compete Better In The World

Jim Rogers on what India needs to do to compete better in the world.

Video Duration: 38m33s

Best Investment For The Next 50 Years

Jim Rogers answer some rapid-fire questions on where to invest for the next 50 years.

(1) Kospi 200 or Nikkei 225?
(2) Bitcoin or Graphene?
(3) FANG* stocks or BAT** stocks?
(4) S&P 500 Index or RICI***?

* Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google
** Baidu, Tencent and Alibaba
*** Commodities Index

The Best Capitalists In The World

They call themselves communists, but they are probably the best capitalists in the world in 2018/2019. California is more communist than China is, Massachusetts is more communist than China.

“I just wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime.” 
- Jim Rogers

Blockchain & Crypto Currencies

Blockchain has a great future. Blockchain is changing everything we know. It's going to change even more. Blockchain is going to put a lot of people out of work but a lot of people lost their jobs because of electricity. And electricity turned out to be a good thing for all of us. Likewise with blockchain. 

That's different from cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are going to disappear, and go to nothing. But blockchain is going to be wildly successful and important.

Trump Was Wrong To Pull Out Of The TPP

President Trump pulled out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Chinese looked around and said, "Well, that means we're the only ones left." So, they can take over Asia now. Maybe that's what Mr. Trump is thinking to make America great but it is doing a lot to make China great because now they don't have any major rivals in Asia and the Pacific.

US - China Trade War

The Chinese are going to become self-sufficient in many things which means that MANY American companies will lose their markets! I think this is going to hurt America rather than help us! 
- Jim Rogers in a recent video interview with RT.com.

Favorite Book: Security Analysis by Ben Graham

The book that I still to this day tell people to read is Security Analysis by Ben Graham. I read it decades ago. Short of that, The Intelligent Investor by Graham and Dodd. Graham's ideas of investing in fundamentals and cheap stocks, I realized that's the that's the kind of investor I was, that's what I loved and thought was great. So, I recommend that book when people ask me what book to read or books to read I tell them about Ben Graham.

Markets: Russia Is Very Cheap

Well, mainly I am cautious about the stocks all over the world now except for a couple of places, where they are down a lot. If and when stocks all over the world go down or if and when India goes down a lot, then I would certainly re-examine India.

At the moment I am mainly looking at Russia. In fact, I am buying shares in Russia right now. Russia is very cheap compared to markets all over the world. The main problem is stocks in much of the world are up and I prefer not to buy when things are going up and I know that there are going to be some problems in the markets in the next year or two. My hope is that when problems come to the world markets, I am smart enough to buy lots of stocks. 

The U.S. Dollar Is Going To Go Higher

The U.S. Dollar is going to go higher, it is going to get overpriced, it might even turn into a bubble. At that point, I am going to have to sell my U.S. Dollars because bubbles always come to an end. I have a few thoughts on where I will put my money when I get out of my U.S. Dollars going forward but we will have to wait to see what happens.

Rising Interest Rates Will Cause Serious Problems

Never in the history of the world have interest rates been this low. They think this is the solution. But I want you to know that eventually and soon interest rates are going to go higher again and when interest rates go higher again we are going to have serious, serious problems all over the world.

The Next Bear Market In Stocks

No, I will just say it will be the worst in my lifetime. It has been over 10 years since we had a serious bear market in the United States. I would suspect by the end of this year or next year, it will start. These things always start small, where people are not looking and then they work to the major markets, and then you see them on the major news. 

 In 2007, Iceland went bankrupt but nobody noticed or cared. Then Ireland went bankrupt. Then a few weeks later, Bear Sterns went bankrupt and a few weeks later Northern Rock, the English Bank, went bankrupt. Then eventually Lehman brothers went bankrupt and by then, everybody knew there was a problem. But it had been there for over a year and it has always worked that way. It starts when we are not watching. It has already started. Latvia collapsed. Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey, some banks in India are having problems, Indonesia has started having problems. It has not made to evening news yet. 

All these markets are small but until they make it to the big markets, people do not notice.

“ The more certain something is, the less likely it is to be profitable”.

Trade War: Will China Sell U.S. Treasuries?

"The idea that China would dump its $1.1 trillion of Treasuries to retaliate against U.S. tariffs is often dismissed as improbable. It’s seen as a nuclear option that would inflict more harm on China’s economy than America’s. 

Yet the tensions rippling through global financial markets could still lead Beijing to reduce its stockpile in the $15.9 trillion Treasuries market -- not to retaliate, but to defend its currency if it goes into a free-fall. The offshore yuan has slumped 2.6% this month to about 6.92 per dollar as the trade standoff intensified, reaching the weakest since December." - in Bloomberg

Read the complete article here: Trade War May Yet Spur China to Sell Treasuries as Yuan Tumbles

Stocks: The Next Bear Market

In 2007, Iceland went bankrupt, but nobody noticed or cared. Then Ireland went bankrupt. A few weeks later Bear Sterns went bankrupt and a few weeks later Northern Rock – the English Bank – went bankrupt and then eventually Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. By then everybody knew there was a problem. 

It starts when we are not watching. It has already started. Latvia collapse. Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey, some banks in India are having problems, we have issues in Indonesia; so it has already started showing. It has not made to evening news yet.

India: "I am not a big fan of Mr. Modi"

I invested in India before Mr. Modi was elected. I owned the Indian shares, but then after few weeks seeing that he did not do much, I sold Indian shares. I have had no position in India since. Modi has done some nice things. He has done a few small things. He has not done any big good thing as far as I can think. I am not a big fan of Mr. Modi. He gets great, great, great publicity all over the world and he is very well liked all over the world. But as far as the real policy (is concerned), I have not seen much dramatic change, yet. 

Related trading instruments: WisdomTree India Earnings Fund ETF (EPI), iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

Related articles:

Zimbabwe: I Bought A Few Stocks Recently 

Korea: Tourism Is Going To Be Great 

Russian Stocks 

Korea Will Be The Most Exciting Country In The World 

Cautious About Stocks All Over The World

Well, mainly I am cautious about the stocks all over the world now except for a couple of places, where they are down a lot. If and when stocks all over the world go down or if and when India goes down a lot, then I would certainly re-examine India.

At the moment I am mainly looking at Russia. In fact, I am buying shares in Russia right now. Russia is very cheap compared to markets all over the world. The main problem is stocks in much of the world are up and I prefer not to buy when things are going up and I know that there are going to be some problems in the markets in the next year or two. My hope is that when problems come to the world markets, I am smart enough to buy lots of stocks. 

S&P 500 Index: Lack of Market Breath

Today if you look at the S&P 500 Index for instance in the United States, I think there are only 40 or 45 stocks that are above their 50-day moving average to use the technicians kind of talk. Everything else is in a downtrend. Definitely a lack of breath. Over 90 percent of the stocks are in downtrends, 10 percent are in uptrends but they're big companies and since the S&P 500 Index is capitalization-weighted those 50 stocks, 40 stocks, are dragging the average to all-time highs now.

A Bear Market Can Start This Year

Jim Rogers has talked with ET Markets today. The wide ranging conversation touched several different topics such as the prospects from investing in India, the outlook for the U.S. stock market, the Russian stock market and agricultural commodities. You can read the complete interview here: "Don't miss the signs like in 2008, bear market is coming, reiterates Jim Rogers"

Video: Investing Lessons

A fantastic video interview with Jim Rogers on Real Vision. 

Steve Diggle and Jim Rogers discussed contrarian investing, tape reading, how to use independent thinking in investing, the importance of experience and making mistakes as a part of the acquiring knowledge. 

My Favorite Investment Book

The book that I still to this day tell people to read is Security Analysis by Ben Graham. I read it decades ago. Short of that, The Intelligent Investor by Graham and Dodd. Graham's ideas of investing in fundamentals and cheap stocks, I realized that's the that's the kind of investor I was, that's what I loved and thought was great. So, I recommend that book when people ask me what book to read or books to read I tell them about Ben Graham.

Q. How Has Your Investment Process Evolved Over The Years?

From incompetence to competence back to incompetence. I mean, my point is that I don't spend nearly as much time on it as I used to. To be a successful investor, you really have to spend a lot of time, energy, devotion etc. I'm doing a lot of other things now. I've moved, I'm traveling a lot all over the world especially in Asia, China and Russia.  I just had a book, it was the number one bestseller in Japan. I was shocked, shocked to find out. So, I'm doing a lot of other things now and so I don't spend nearly as much time investing as I used to.

The World Economy Will Be Slower In The Next Year

The world economy is going to be very slow in the next year or two but that does not mean that crude oil supply and demand cannot get out of balance. Crude Oil will go down at times but remember, known reserves of oil are declining and have been declining for years except for fracking. But the fracking bubble has burst and so we will have declining reserves everywhere and that means that after crude oil completes this complicated bottom, crude oil will go up again.

Emerging Markets: Zimbabwe, South Korea, Russia

Here's a summary of Jim's most recent commentary on Emerging Markets:

Zimbabwe: I Bought A Few Stocks Recently 

Korea: Tourism Is Going To Be Great 

Russian Stocks 

Korea Will Be The Most Exciting Country In The World 

Related trading tickers: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY), Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX)

Investing: Crypto Currencies, Yield Curve, Gold

Keep up to date with the latest investment topics from Jim Rogers.

This week Jim has already commented on a variety of topics including Crypto Currencies - Q: Do You Look At Crypto Currencies At All?, the outlook for Gold prices going forward - Q: What do you make of the Russians and the Chinese buying a lot of gold lately?, and the impact that a potential inversion of the yield curve can have on the markets - Yield Curve & Recession and The Meaning of Inverted Yield Curves.

Q: Do You Look At Crypto Currencies At All?

I'm aware of them I know about them I've never bought one or sold one I wish I had I wish I'd done both bought and sold but they're all going to disappear they're all going to go to zero. (...) Eventually money is money is going to the computer (...) Many countries are so far ahead of the US in electronic money, so it's happening but it's gonna be government money.

Related:

Looking For Ways To Invest in Blockchain
The Internet Is Changing Everything

Q: What do you make of the Russians and the Chinese buying a lot of gold lately?

Well, there are people in the world and have been for thousands of years who think that gold and silver are extremely valuable and useful. I know that history shows whenever there are problems, whenever people lose confidence in governments or in money, they turn to gold and silver.

I own gold, I've owned gold for many years. I haven't bought any serious gold since 2010 but I am waiting for gold to have one final collapse and I hope I'm smart enough to buy a lot more gold and silver when that happens, if it happens.

Related: 

India Is Buying Gold
Russia Continues Buying Gold

Yield Curve & Recession

We are getting overdue for something to happen and the yield curve maybe telling us, "Hey guys, it's coming again!" But the yield curve also is not a short-term signal it only says a few weeks or months later something is going to happen.

The Longest Bull Market In American History

It's been over 10 years since we've had a financial problem in the United States and that's the longest in American history. It doesn't mean it has to end, it can go on for 20 years, who knows. But it is the longest bull market we've had in American history and also the longest economic good times we've had in American history. So, we are getting overdue for something to happen.

The Meaning of Inverted Yield Curves

I know what history says that when they invert and when they stay inverted it usually means that a few weeks or months later we're going to have problems. I don't see any reason that's changed. People always say it's different this time but it's rarely really different this time. So, I'm watching but I have not acted because of it yet.

Related trading instruments: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA), iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas.Bond ETF (TLT), iShares Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF)

Zimbabwe: I Bought A Few Stocks Recently

I bought a few shares in Zimbabwe recently. Not much, just to get me to remember Zimbabwe. You know, 50 years ago Zimbabwe was one of the richest countries in the British Commonwealth. It's been totally destroyed totally destroyed by a crazy dictator over the next 37 years. But it is a great opportunity now.

Related trading rockers: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

Jim Rogers: Recent Interview & Podcast

A recent article on The Korean Times featuring Jim Rogers: 'Jim Rogers can be used to restart inter-Korean projects'

Jim Rogers was a guest on the Futures Radio Show podcast and you can listen to the full interview here: "Investing in the Real World – Jim Rogers"

Korea: Tourism Is Going To Be Great

There's no stock market in North Korea, no market in the traditional sense but I'm very excited about the future of the Korean Peninsula. They don't have anything. Communism destroys everything. They don't have electricity, they don't have suits, they don't have chairs... 

Tourism is going to be great. Korea has not been on the tourist map. If people are sitting around in Europe thinking about where am I gonna go in Asia, I think of Japan, China, Bali, they don't think of Korea for historic reasons. But now people are going to start thinking about going to Korea.

Video Interview: Wiener Börse Insights - Talk with Jim Rogers

CEO Christoph Boschan and Jim Rogers, who jointly invented Quantum Funds together with George Soros in the early 1970s and became a national capital market hero when we woke up the Vienna Stock Exchange in 1985, in a spontaneous interview. Watch the video interview here, Wiener Börse Insights - Talk with Jim Rogers.

Podcast: Futures Radio Show (with Jim Rogers)

Jim Rogers talks to Anthony Crudele on the Futures Radio Show.

Topics discussed: trade selection process, risk management and position sizing, asset bubbles and yield curves.

Russian Stocks

Right now, I'm buying a Russian stock for instance and that's exactly what I've been doing. I've been putting in limit orders for several weeks, it's not that active (stock).

Investing: The Way I Do It

I consider myself an investor where I buy things and I try to own them for years, preferably forever. That's my success, if I've had any. 

The way I do it: I find something that's cheap, usually if nobody's paying attention and if it's ignored it's cheap. But if you can find something that's cheap where there's positive change taking place, often you make a lot of money. So, that's my way of doing it.

South Korea: Tourism Is Going To Be Great

There's no stock market in North Korea, no market in the traditional sense but I'm very excited about the future of the Korean Peninsula. They don't have anything. Communism destroys everything. They don't have electricity, they don't have suits, they don't have chairs... 

Tourism is going to be great. Korea has not been on the tourist map. If people are sitting around in Europe thinking about where am I gonna go in Asia, I think of Japan, China, Bali, they don't think of Korea for historic reasons. But now people are going to start thinking about going to Korea.

Related ticker: iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY), Korean Air Lines Co Ltd (KRX:003490)

You're Gonna Be Successful In Your Own Madness!

You're not gonna be successful doing what your parents or your teachers or your friends tell you to. You're gonna be successful in your own madness. That's how people become successful. They do something they love, they don't listen to other people.

Electric Car Revolution: Lithium and Cobalt

Q: Let's back to the future now because we're in the middle of this electric car revolution that's creating a major shift in demand and supply in commodities for things like Lithium and Cobalt. So, is that kind of thematic investment that you're looking at and how is the best way to play it?

A: Well, yes the problem with those two that you mentioned are that there's no public market. You know, there's plenty of futures in Zinc and Copper but there's not futures in Lithium and Cobalt. So you have to be in the mines or buy the stuff itself which is not so easy for most people, including me. I had an interest in a company which had lithium mines but at the moment I have nothing.

Further reading:

"Stock Market: The Trump Put" 

"The Real Reason Why The Fed Cannot Raise Rates"
"The Coming Recession Will Be Bearish For Bonds"

My Process For Investing In Commodities

I'm more bullish on commodities than I am on American stocks for instance. So, the answer is overall yes but would I rush in and buy Zinc today? No, of course not! It's up 20 percent since August as you pointed out. What I like to do is find the commodities that are down the most and start looking there rather than ones are up the most.

Further reading:

"Stock Market: The Trump Put" 

"The Real Reason Why The Fed Cannot Raise Rates" 

"The Coming Recession Will Be Bearish For Bonds"

Video: Cannabis Investing, China & Gold

"The cannabis market is going to get bigger and bigger." - Jim Rogers

Other topics covered: North Korea, Unified Korea, China, Gold;

Interesting Reading:

Ray Dalio - What It Means to Be Principled and Why You Need to Do It 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1: Be A Hyperrealist 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1A: A Successful Life 
Ray Dalio - Principle Of The Day: Embrace Reality 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.2: An Accurate Understanding Of Reality

Further reading:

"Stock Market: The Trump Put" 

"The Real Reason Why The Fed Cannot Raise Rates"
"The Coming Recession Will Be Bearish For Bonds"

Korea Will Be The Most Exciting Country In The World

Soon Korea will be the most exciting country in the world. More exciting than China, more exciting than the United Kingdom, more exciting than any country you can think of. 

They have lots of cheap, disciplined labor in the North, they have lots of natural resources in the north, they are right on the Chinese border. You put it together with South Korean capital, South Korean expertise, South Korea market size... It's going to be a country of 80 million people on the Chinese border with cheap labor and lots of natural resources.

Interesting Reading:

Ray Dalio - What It Means to Be Principled and Why You Need to Do It 

Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1: Be A Hyperrealist 

Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1A: A Successful Life 

Ray Dalio - Principle Of The Day: Embrace Reality 

Ray Dalio - Principle 1.2: An Accurate Understanding Of Reality

Further reading:

"Stock Market: The Trump Put" 

"The Real Reason Why The Fed Cannot Raise Rates" 

"The Coming Recession Will Be Bearish For Bonds"

Investing: Finding Cheap & Positive Change

If you can find very cheap and positive change you're probably going to be successful. So there's positive change taking place in North Korea.

Interesting Reading:

Ray Dalio - What It Means to Be Principled and Why You Need to Do It 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1: Be A Hyperrealist 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1A: A Successful Life 
Ray Dalio - Principle Of The Day: Embrace Reality 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.2: An Accurate Understanding Of Reality

Daily Routines: Exercising & Avoiding Things That Don't Interest Me

I try to exercise every day try to go to the gym every day there's no question about that I can't always do it because of traveler or conflicts or something else but that I try to do and I tried not to I try to avoid things that don't interest me.

Interesting Reading:

Ray Dalio - What It Means to Be Principled and Why You Need to Do It 

Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1: Be A Hyperrealist 

Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1A: A Successful Life 

Ray Dalio - Principle Of The Day: Embrace Reality 

Ray Dalio - Principle 1.2: An Accurate Understanding Of Reality

Looking For Ways To Invest in Blockchain

"I have not found a way (to invest in Blockchain), a small enough company, (an) independent company where I can invest in blockchain."
- Jim Rogers in The James and Ravi Show, March 2019

Interesting Reading:

Ray Dalio - What It Means to Be Principled and Why You Need to Do It 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1: Be A Hyperrealist 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.1A: A Successful Life 
Ray Dalio - Principle Of The Day: Embrace Reality 
Ray Dalio - Principle 1.2: An Accurate Understanding Of Reality

The Internet Is Changing Everything

The Internet is changing us all it will continue to change it so broad what's it called blockchain any blockchain is going to change everything we know it's gonna put a lot of people out of work a lot of people out of business.

"There German cities that are gonna go bankrupt in the foreseeable future." 

Jim Rogers, in The James and Ravi Show (March 2019)

Keys To Success

You're not gonna be successful doing what your parents or your teachers or your friends tell you to. You're gonna be successful in your own madness. That's how people become successful. They do something they love, they don't listen to other people.

Podcast: Why Jim Rogers Wants To Invest In North Korea

Listen to the latest Jim Rogers podcast with NK News, "Why Jim Rogers wants to invest in North Korea – NKNews Podcast Ep.62".

Jim discusses the prospects for an unified Korea, investments and the economic future of North Korea.

Interesting reading: Peter Schiff: Federal Reserve, Crude Oil Prices & Credit Card Debt

Jim Rogers: Life, Trips and a Globe Collection

Jim Rogers' wife talks about their trip around the world, their globe collection and their home decoration with pictures and objects from a ll around the world.

“The biggest public fallacy is that the market is always right. The market is nearly always wrong. I can assure you of that.”

- Jim Rogers

Communism Destroys Everything

There's no stock market in North Korea, no market in the traditional sense but I'm very excited about the future of the Korean Peninsula. They don't have anything. Communism destroys everything. They don't have electricity, they don't have suits, they don't have chairs... 

Tourism is going to be great. Korea has not been on the tourist map. If people are sitting around in Europe thinking about where am I gonna go in Asia, I think of Japan, China, Bali, they don't think of Korea for historic reasons. But now people are going to start thinking about going to Korea.

Jim Rogers Talks Markets: Weekly Recap

Crypto Currencies Are All Going To Zero

The digital coins are all going to go to zero and disappear. Blockchain and crypto currencies are two entirely different things as you well know. Blockchain is going to change everything we know, it has a phenomenal future. Electricity changed everything we know and put a lot of people out of business. Blockchain is going to put a lot of people out of business too but it's great for the world. But crypto currencies are all gonna go to zero, they're all going to disappear.

The Prospects For An Unified Korean Peninsula

Would you rather live in North Korea or Switzerland? I can tell you would prefer to live in Switzerland then North Korea. They don't want to live in North Korea too. They want to live like they live in South Korea. This is not 1989 this is 2019 they know and they don't want to live that way anymore. Chairman Kim grew up in Switzerland so he doesn't want to live in North Korea. If you were Chairman Kim would you rather live in North Korea or Switzerland? He wants to live in Switzerland so he's changing it. I have read about and have seen the changes that are taking place. So, the peninsula is going to be a very, very exciting place.

Investing In North Korea

It's illegal me to invest in North Korea so no, I haven't. I'm trying to find investments in North Korea but so far I have invested in Korean Air but that's not a great way but it's difficult to find things.

A Pessimistic View On Japan

In a recent visit to Japan, Jim Rogers warned of a severe economic downturn and a pessimistic view on the Japanese economy longer term. You can read the complete article here: American investor Jim Rogers warns of severe economic downturn and forecasts grim future for Japan

The Korean Peninsula Is Going To Be A Very Exciting Place

Would you rather live in North Korea or Switzerland? I can tell you would prefer to live in Switzerland then North Korea. They don't want to live in North Korea too. They want to live like they live in South Korea. This is not 1989 this is 2019 they know and they don't want to live that way anymore. 

Chairman Kim grew up in Switzerland so he doesn't want to live in North Korea. If you were Chairman Kim would you rather live in North Korea or Switzerland? He wants to live in Switzerland so he's changing it. I have read about and have seen the changes that are taking place. So, the peninsula is going to be a very, very exciting place. 

Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI South Korea Index Fund ETF (EWY)

North Korea: Untapped Potential

Jim Rogers talks about the unification of North Korea and South Korea plus ways to invest and benefit from that process.

North Korea: Looking For Things To Invest

It's illegal me to invest in North Korea so no, I haven't. I'm trying to find investments in North Korea but so far I have invested in Korean Air but that's not a great way but it's difficult to find things.

Cryptos Are All Going To Go To Zero

The digital coins are all going to go to zero and disappear. 

Blockchain and crypto currencies are two entirely different things as you well know. Blockchain is going to change everything we know, it has a phenomenal future. Electricity changed everything we know and put a lot of people out of business. Blockchain is going to put a lot of people out of business too but it's great for the world. But crypto currencies are all gonna go to zero, they're all going to disappear.

A Pessimistic View On Japan

In a recent visit to Japan, Jim Rogers warned of a severe economic downturn and a pessimistic view on the Japanese economy longer term. You can read the complete article here: American investor Jim Rogers warns of severe economic downturn and forecasts grim future for Japan

North Korea Still Attractive

Jim Rogers unfazed by summit collapse, says NK still attractiveJim Rogers recently spoke with The Korean Times and expressed that is still is very optimistic on a unified Korea in a relatively short period of time. Read the complete article here: "Jim Rogers unfazed by summit collapse, says North Korea still attractive"

Getting More and More Involved In Korea

I'm trying to get more and more involved with Korea because I know what's going to be very exciting I'm looking for investment they will benefit from the future opening of Korea the unification of Korea.

Unified Korea: It's Going To Happen Anyway

Of course it's a delay but it's something that's inevitable, it's going to happen. It's just a delay, you know, life is full of delays and mistakes and problems. It's not the first time I've seen delays and problems.  We're gonna have an open and unified Korea. 

The Koreans have been here for 5,000 years. The Americans have been here for 70 years. Don't worry, it's going to happen. North Korea wants it, South Korea wants it, China wants it, Russia wants it. It's going to happen! It's a bump in the road it's a delay, it should be happening right now. Now we have to go through all sorts of delays and changes and discussions and talk and waste of time but it's going to happen.

Central Banks Are Buying Gold

Yes, there are central banks buying gold but whether do we like it or not you know gold has been around for a few thousand years and many people like it.

Academics can say that gold is meaningless, gold is, you know, all the things that some academics say about gold but like it or not you cannot tell a French peasant that he shouldn't buy gold you cannot tell me that I shouldn't buy gold. 

So, like it or not people for historic reasons, emotional reasons, insane reasons for whatever reason there are many people who know or think they know that in a crisis gold and silver are the places to be.

So it's not going to end, not in my lifetime anyway, not in your lifetime. Gold has been around a few thousand years and it will continue to be around. Yes, there will be people who will sell it at times. There are a lot more French peasants than there are intellectuals from Ivy League universities and when I say French peasants I mean common people all over the world.

The Secrets To Success

Focus of course is extremely important and everybody who is successful is focused. I would add or maybe substitute the word focus with persistence. Persistence may be the same thing as focus in this case. 

We all know smart people that are not successful, we all know educated people that are not successful, we all know beautiful people that are not successful and we all know talented people that are not successful.

The ones who are successful are the ones who never give up. So, you don't have to be educated in order to be successful. You don't even have to be beautiful if you persist or if you focus.

Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets

Jim is about to launch a new book, “The Future of Japan and the World That Will Be Read Through the Flow of Money.” and we will be sharing a few of the best reviews from his earlier works.

Street Smarts is his most recent book and here's one of the most comprehensive reviews:

I have read every book Jim Rogers has written and this book rates as one of my favorites. (Here's) some of the excerpts that give you a look into Jim Rogers investment lessons:

"I learned that everything is connected. I learned that a revolution in Chile was going to affect the price of copper, and thus the price of electricity and the price for houses-the price of everything- all over the world, having an impact on everyone, including Toledo. I learned, also, that if you could figure out that a revolution in Chile was coming, you could earn a pretty good living".

"You have to stay ahead of events. The action is never ending. It is like a four-dimensional puzzle, linked to volume and time. Every day you come to work and find that they have moved the pieces on you-somebody dies, there is a strike or a war, weather conditions have shifted. Things change, no matter what. Investing lacks the rhtym of other endeavors, and therefore never stops testing you."

"Study of History and Philosophy were indispensable to me as an investor."

"The conventional wisdom that existed at the start of each decade was shattered over the following decade".

"If History teaches us nothing else, it teaches us this: what appears undisputed today will look very different tomorrow."

Japan Is Risking A Decline In Standards Of Living

“You either have babies, immigrants or declining standard of living. You have decided to have declining standard of living. If that’s what Japan wants, do it. Seventy-thousand immigrants a year for a country of 125 million people doesn’t solve the problem.” 

- in Japan Times

Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ), Nikkei 225 Index

How A Trade Deal May Impact The Stock Market

Jim Rogers gave a recent interview to The Japan Times where he commented the current state of the markets including on how a trade deal between the United States and China could cause a temporary, non-lasting euphoria in the stock market. You can read the complete article here: "American investor Jim Rogers warns of severe economic downturn and forecasts grim future for Japan"

Bear Markets Are Not Fun

Rising interest rates going to be the main problem and they're going to be serious but the trade war... Nobody's ever won a trade war and trade wars have never been good for anybody. So, that could be another problem and all of these things coming together. 

When you have bear markets everything goes wrong. When we are in a bull market everything goes right, bad news comes out and everybody says "Don't worry, we can solve this!"and stocks go up.

In bear markets, bad news starts coming out and people say "Oh my gosh! Guess what just happened" and then something else happens and it gets worse and worse. That's the way bear markets are. They're not fun but that's the way they are.

Interesting reading:

An interesting blog post from Peter Schiff on what he really considers to be the real national emergency apart from building the border wall: The Real National Emergency 

and also some interesting principles from Ray Dalio:

"Two people who collaborate well will be about three times as effective as each of them operating independently." : Principle Of The Day (4.5A & 4.5B)

And also why smaller groups seeking answers will perform better than larger groups: Principle Of The Day (4.5A & 4.5B)

The Federal Reserve Needs To Correct The Situation

The Federal Reserve after 2008 started printing money like never before in world history. Interest rates went to the lowest in world history and in some places they even went negative as other central banks followed America's central bank. The Fed's balance sheet alone increased by 500% and this all happened in 10 years.

 It's astonishing historically that this could ever happen if we were talking 20 years ago, 50 years ago or 100 years ago. If we said this would happen people would not have believed, they could not comprehend it because that's not what central banks and responsible people have ever done.

So the American central bank went nuts did something which has never been done we're all gonna pay the price. The debts keeps running higher and higher and now they're backing down again. The longer they wait to correct the situation the worst it is going to be in the end.

China's Economy Is Slowing

It is slowing, fortunately fortunately for China and fortunately for the world. When anything goes straight up without a pause is going to have a huge crash someday. The situation, the way I read it, well, you know what's happening with Trump, you know what's happening with the trade war and things of that sort. But also China has built up a lot of debt in the last decade or so and the government is now insisting, demanding and forcing people to start reducing their debt. When you go from adding debt to reducing debt, you're obviously going to have a slowdown. That's my assessment but I'm sure there are other things going on as well.

Paper Money Is Going To Disappear

Paper money is going to disappear and it's going to be on the internet but this is going to be government money it's not going to be anybody else's money. Money is already disappearing in China and in many countries. China's far ahead of the United States for instance.

While I'm extremely optimistic about blockchain and I'm extremely optimistic about the changes of money to the internet which I know is happening it's not going to be crypto currencies because the government's are not going to let it happen.

Crypto Currencies Are All Going To Zero

Blockchain and crypto currencies are two entirely different things as you well know. Blockchain is going to change everything we know, it has a phenomenal future. 

Electricity changed everything we know and put a lot of people out of business. Blockchain is going to put a lot of people out of business too but it's great for the world. But crypto currencies are all gonna go to zero, they're all going to disappear.

Visiting North Korea Next Month

Chairman Kim Jong-un has invited Jim Rogers to visit North Korea next month. You can read the Korea Herald article here: Investor Jim Rogers to visit North Korea next month

Jim has been bullish on North Korea for years and considers that a unified Korea would be the most exciting country in the world:

"Korea is probably going to be the most exciting country in the world once North Korea opens which will and very soon. I mean it's right on the Chinese border, 80 million people, natural resources, cheap disciplined labor... It has lots of things going for it." - in November 30th, 2018

Emerging Markets: The Problem With Turkey

The problem from everybody's point of view is that Turkey is in a bad neighborhood. There's nothing wrong with Turkey, I love Turkey but the neighborhood is not particularly stable right now and there are lots of things going on in the neighborhood which could or could not badly affect Turkey.

Related trading tickers: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EEM)

Promising Areas To Invest

“Life is short. Ride hard and far. Make it happen." 

- Jim Rogers

Promising Areas To Invest

Jim Rogers was recently Korean talk show where he talked about promising investment areas like agriculture, pollution control and an Unified Korea. You can read the article here: Agricultural Stocks Surges on Jim Rogers Comments 

Why Governments Prefer Inflation 

Unfortunately governments usually wind up with inflation because it's easier for governments that way. It's easier to print money, it's easier to borrow money, it's easy to spend money and ultimately that leads to more inflation. Inflation makes people unhappy too but governments can at least do something or think they can do something. Deflation makes everybody angry and governments usually cannot do much except revert to inflation again. 

Rising Interest Rates Will Ruin People

Interest rates at least in America have a long history of long, long cycles. We're now headed up again and interest rates are going to go much, much, much higher over the next few decades and it's gonna ruin a lot of people.

Interesting Reading: 

What It Means to Be Principled and Why You Need to Do It

Plus, Peter Schiff says we are in a bear market.

Interest Rates: Latest Commentary

Interest Rates Are Still Very Low

Anybody who thinks these interest rates are high needs to go back and do a little history because these interest rates are the lowest in recorded American history. 

I mean we never had interest rates this low, this long (the last four or five years). So these are anything but high interest rates on a historic basis. 

That's true everywhere in the world. Interest rates were negative in some countries in the world. 

Japan has never had such low interest rates, much of the world has never ever had such low interest rates. So, if you think these interest rates are high please do some homework. 

Inflation and Interest Rates: How It Works

In periods of slow inflation people don't notice it so much. But when inflation starts rising rapidly then people notice it and they take action with their investments and other things as well. 

Certainly when inflation is here and coming back and getting stronger, interest interest rates are going to go higher because people have to be paid more on their money when inflation is here because the money's losing value every day. People want to compensate for that with higher interest rates.

Emerging Markets: India

India Is Going Deeper And Deeper Into Debt

As far as I'm concerned it's another case where it's India is going deeper and deeper into debt.

I know politicians try to buy as many votes as they can and mr. Moody's doing a very good job of preparing for the next election. 

I don't consider it good for India, I don't consider it good for the world and it certainly doesn't make India more attractive to me and perhaps not to other investors either.

Farming In India Has Many Problems

There are structural problems, they have all these rules and laws and regulations supposedly to protect the farmers. 

They make farming worse, it's more difficult to be a farmer in India than many other countries. 

If they would get rid of the regulations, get rid of the requirements maybe Indian farmers would be more prosperous. Giving them a handout is not going to improve Indian farming.

Principles (Ray Dalio)

Interesting principles from Ray Dalio:

"Two people who collaborate well will be about three times as effective as each of them operating independently." : Principle Of The Day (4.5A & 4.5B)

And also why smaller groups seeking answers will perform better than larger groups: Principle Of The Day (4.5A & 4.5B)

Farming In India Has Many Problems

Farming in India has many problems. There are structural problems, they have all these rules and laws and regulations supposedly to protect the farmers. They make farming worse, it's more difficult to be a farmer in India than many other countries.

If they would get rid of the regulations, get rid of the requirements maybe Indian farmers would be more prosperous. Giving them a handout is not going to improve Indian farming.

Interesting reading:

The Best Way To Use Gold

Charlie Munger: The Merits Of Long-Term Investing

Steenbarger: Two Self-Destructive Behaviors

India: This Budget Does Not Make India More Attractive To Investors

As far as I'm concerned it's another case where it's India is going deeper and deeper into debt.

I know politicians try to buy as many votes as they can and mr. Moody's doing a very good job of preparing for the next election. 

I don't consider it good for India, I don't consider it good for the world and it certainly doesn't make India more attractive to me and perhaps not to other investors either.

Federal Reserve: An U-Turn On Monetary Policy

Peter Schiff gives a fantastic explanation of the current state of the stock market and how the Federal Reserve has made an 180 degree on monetary policy when the stock markets crashed in the forth quarter of 2018. 

You can watch the video here: Federal Reserve: Capitulation is the Beginning of the End

Trade War: Trump Thinks He Is Smarter Than History

This is madness. Trade wars have never been good for anybody. Nobody has ever won a trade war. Unfortunately, Donald Trump does not know history or if he knows history, he thinks he is smarter than history. He thinks, "I can win a trade war!". He does not know what he is doing, you should be worried. If you are not worried, read some more and you will get worried!

Higher Inflation Will Translate Into Higher Interest Rates

In periods of slow inflation people don't notice it so much. But when inflation starts rising rapidly then people notice it and they take action with their investments and other things as well. But certainly when inflation is here and coming back and getting stronger, interest interest rates are going to go higher because people have to be paid more on their money when inflation is here because the money's losing value every day. People want to compensate for that with higher interest rates.